4 ms·

I'm not sure about when the Vestas happened, but Russia likely took more than a year to plan an invasion of this size. After some sanctions following the 2014

by KMag 4y ago

I'm not sure about when the Vestas happened, but Russia likely took more than a year to plan an invasion of this size. After some sanctions following the 2014 Crimea invasion, Russia built up its foreign currency reserves to ride out sanctions, apparently Gazprom reduced natural gas holdings in Germany right before this invasion, and Russia made other preparations to stave off sanctions and/or reduce their impact. It's not unthinkable that Russia did some preliminary attacks on renewables in preparation/practice runs in the year leading up to the invasion.

sidewndr46 4y ago
Based on the level of success they've had, I'd say Putin was drunk and scribbled invasion on a napkin with an arrow headed south from Russia into Ukraine.
- sofixa 4y ago
  It looks like it, but it's due to incompetence, corruption, low morale, and terrible planing, not lack of planning per se. You can plan all you want, but if you do so based on wrong assumptions, and the people who you rely on to get information for the plans, and to execute the plans, are mostly incompetent stooges chosen for loyalty, it will turn out bad.
pydry 4y ago
It's perfectly possible that it is Russia but hack attribution is and has always been a complete and total shitshow. If I were executing any kind of hack attacks these days I'd consider masquerading as a state actor to be standard opsec. It is way too tempting to blame state actors for a variety of reasons: * Public/shareholders will be more forgiving. * Insurance (as is the case with Sony). * Makes you seem more competent if you "know" who did it straight away. To add to that, once youve picked your culprit you kind of have to double down on it which means embarrassing evidence to the contrary uncovered later will be swept under the carpet for fear of humiliating everybody who said it was [ state ] when it was [ script kiddies in a basement ]. Thus masquerading as a state actor offers a decent amount of protection for a non state attacker coz once attribution is locked in the motivation to track you down evaporates.

by KMag 4y ago

sidewndr46 4y ago

Based on the level of success they've had, I'd say Putin was drunk and scribbled invasion on a napkin with an arrow headed south from Russia into Ukraine.

sofixa 4y ago
It looks like it, but it's due to incompetence, corruption, low morale, and terrible planing, not lack of planning per se. You can plan all you want, but if you do so based on wrong assumptions, and the people who you rely on to get information for the plans, and to execute the plans, are mostly incompetent stooges chosen for loyalty, it will turn out bad.

pydry 4y ago

It's perfectly possible that it is Russia but hack attribution is and has always been a complete and total shitshow. If I were executing any kind of hack attacks these days I'd consider masquerading as a state actor to be standard opsec. It is way too tempting to blame state actors for a variety of reasons: * Public/shareholders will be more forgiving. * Insurance (as is the case with Sony). * Makes you seem more competent if you "know" who did it straight away. To add to that, once youve picked your culprit you kind of have to double down on it which means embarrassing evidence to the contrary uncovered later will be swept under the carpet for fear of humiliating everybody who said it was [ state ] when it was [ script kiddies in a basement ]. Thus masquerading as a state actor offers a decent amount of protection for a non state attacker coz once attribution is locked in the motivation to track you down evaporates.