As I understand it it's not so much a brand new phenomenon, but rather a marked increase in the background rate, with the UK having a normal full year's worth o

As I understand it it's not so much a brand new phenomenon, but rather a marked increase in the background rate, with the UK having a normal full year's worth of such cases in this calendar year already. I am inclined to agree with your scepticism though, despite sharing your analysis of lockdown harm generally, however there isn't any better leading theory so far, and the geographical distribution does seem to have a certain correlation with the places which went in for harder lockdowns... Spain, Italy, France, UK (disproportionately Scotland). Sweden is notably absent.