5 ms·

Well, I can save FB/Meta a lot of money right now. Goggles and VR/AR won't take off in any meaningful way for the next decade.

ndr 4y ago
Does it mean you're short Meta? Or more than 10y long?
vmception 4y ago
They dont want to save money, they want to spend all the corporate’s money towards lofty goals and individually sell shares to suckers believing in those goals. Every employee and pre-IPO institutional investors wants to do that.
andybak 4y ago
Shhhhhh. We're all having a lot of fun making some cool stuff thanks to them subsidizing the industry.
whitepaint 4y ago
Have you actually tried applications / games on it? I own Oculus and I absolutely love it. Can't wait to see new iterations that will come out within the next 5 years. Companies ignoring Metaverse now will regret it later on, that's my guess.
- rapsey 4y ago
  It is pretty common for people to use it a few times and abandon it.
  - isthispermanent 4y ago
    My anecdotal understanding as well.
  - whitepaint 4y ago
    Is it really common? How could it be? There are so many things to try out. reddit.com/r/oculus/
    - allturtles 4y ago
      According to John Carmack, yes: "I think Quest 2’s price was an important factor in the success, and there is lots of data showing non-linear sales increases below certain price points for many types of devices. However, we need to acknowledge that even if today’s hardware were completely free, billions of people wouldn’t be using it. There are tons of lapsed users today that have a VR headset sitting in a closet, not being used. In contrast, there are near zero “lapsed mobile phone users"." [0] [0]: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ruv739914jzquue/connect2021.txt?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/ruv739914jzquue/connect2021.txt?dl...
  - teg4n_ 4y ago
    I got one free from work. Used it once. It’s in a closet somewhere . Until we have full immersion somehow I think it’s not going be for me.
- onion2k 4y ago
  Have you actually tried applications / games on it? If selling it to people requires they experience first then it's dead because that automatically limits the size of the market to people who are willing and able to spend $300+ to try it. For VR to become mainstream people need to want it before they've bought it.
  - andybak 4y ago
    Or people try it at shows, friend's houses or a dozen other ways people spread shared experiences.
    - smackeyacky 4y ago
      I love the irony of having to physically visit a friends house to experience virtual reality. Made me giggle.
- coldpie 4y ago
  Yes, both personally and for work. It's pretty underwhelming, doesn't really enable any experiences that you can't already have with a flat monitor, as shown by the basically dead VR software market. I think there's maybe some future for VR, maybe, but it's clearly currently on life support and I don't think Facebook has really shown anything interesting to turn that around.
  - andybak 4y ago
    > doesn't really enable any experiences that you can't already have with a flat monitor Apart from presence, spatial awareness, 360 degree stereoscopy with 6DOF motion etc etc. Gravity Sketch, Tilt Brush, Beat Saber can't exist on a flat monitor. Most VR games would be radically different on a flat monitor (if they worked at all) > as shown by the basically dead VR software market. Either your info is slightly out of date or you've using a rather strict definition of "dead": https://www.roadtovr.com/oculus-quest-store-revenue-stats-data-apps-earning-1-million-meta-gdc/ https://www.roadtovr.com/oculus-quest-store-revenue-stats-da...
    - coldpie 4y ago
      The best applications you can point to are Gravity Sketch (2017), Tilt Brush (2016), and Beat Saber (2019). The OpenXR API standard hasn't seen an update since 2019. Valve has left the platform. HTC has left. Sony has left (yes, I know about the PSVR2, but it's clearly not a focus for the company). Microsoft, Nintendo, and Epic never even bothered trying to adopt the platform. There is only one company seriously invested in this ecosystem in 2022. This is not a healthy platform. It's on life support.
      - andybak 4y ago
        Goalpost moving. I picked apps that countered a specific point you made - which had nothing to do with recency. For the record I don't think VR is ever going to see sales like the smartphone market and I don't think it needs to. And I think the "metaverse" is a silly hype bubble. But I do think it's found a healthy niche. Most trends are upwards and income for devs is healthier than it's ever been. Sticking the knife in like you're trying to do just seems to be a little unneccesary - and isn't born out by the numbers I've seen.
snarf21 4y ago
I disagree but it won't be Hatebook. VR/AR porn will become huge in the next few years, including with connected devices. The main deterrent is getting the cost of the hardware down and Hatebook is doing it for them. If Pornhub were smart, they would poach a bunch of the Meta folks and go all in.
- jbverschoor 4y ago
  I’d love to have a highres headset which can create virtual monitors. That way I can be productive anywhere using multiple monitors, and more easily organize applications and windows spatially. Similar to what you used to - and sometimes still do - printing out 50 pages and laying them around the office
  - inetknght 4y ago
    > I’d love to have a highres headset which can create virtual monitors. You want HTC Vive Pro at a minimum (it's high enough resolution to see much less pixelation) with Virtual Desktop or Bigscreen, both of which you can get on Steam. Support for Linux is sometimes spotty though. I sometimes have trouble with Steam VR on Linux. It does work but can require effort to get working, depending on your setup. [0]: https://store.steampowered.com/app/382110/Virtual_Desktop/ https://store.steampowered.com/app/382110/Virtual_Desktop/ [1]: https://store.steampowered.com/app/457550/Bigscreen_Beta https://store.steampowered.com/app/457550/Bigscreen_Beta
    - jbverschoor 4y ago
      I guess I'd want double the density of the HTC Vive Pro, and preferably even higher. Also, demos of the VD seem shaky. When I move my head, my monitor only seems to move 1 inch instead of the whole viewport shaking. This is because I'm also readjusting my eye-target. Without eyetracking/gazetracking and proper SDKs these things will still feel like a mouse (aim with your head)
      - inetknght 4y ago
rapsey 4y ago
Eventually AR will be the next paradigm after the smartphone. It takes many billions to get there. We should be glad Apple/Meta are investing in it. Meta is literally betting the company on it. Even if they fail, the engineers will continue with whoever has the money to try next.

ndr 4y ago

Does it mean you're short Meta? Or more than 10y long?

vmception 4y ago

They dont want to save money, they want to spend all the corporate’s money towards lofty goals and individually sell shares to suckers believing in those goals. Every employee and pre-IPO institutional investors wants to do that.

andybak 4y ago

Shhhhhh. We're all having a lot of fun making some cool stuff thanks to them subsidizing the industry.

whitepaint 4y ago

Have you actually tried applications / games on it? I own Oculus and I absolutely love it. Can't wait to see new iterations that will come out within the next 5 years. Companies ignoring Metaverse now will regret it later on, that's my guess.

rapsey 4y ago
It is pretty common for people to use it a few times and abandon it.
- isthispermanent 4y ago
  My anecdotal understanding as well.
- whitepaint 4y ago
  Is it really common? How could it be? There are so many things to try out. reddit.com/r/oculus/
  - allturtles 4y ago
    According to John Carmack, yes: "I think Quest 2’s price was an important factor in the success, and there is lots of data showing non-linear sales increases below certain price points for many types of devices. However, we need to acknowledge that even if today’s hardware were completely free, billions of people wouldn’t be using it. There are tons of lapsed users today that have a VR headset sitting in a closet, not being used. In contrast, there are near zero “lapsed mobile phone users"." [0] [0]: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ruv739914jzquue/connect2021.txt?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/ruv739914jzquue/connect2021.txt?dl...
- teg4n_ 4y ago
  I got one free from work. Used it once. It’s in a closet somewhere . Until we have full immersion somehow I think it’s not going be for me.
onion2k 4y ago
Have you actually tried applications / games on it? If selling it to people requires they experience first then it's dead because that automatically limits the size of the market to people who are willing and able to spend $300+ to try it. For VR to become mainstream people need to want it before they've bought it.
- andybak 4y ago
  Or people try it at shows, friend's houses or a dozen other ways people spread shared experiences.
  - smackeyacky 4y ago
    I love the irony of having to physically visit a friends house to experience virtual reality. Made me giggle.
coldpie 4y ago
Yes, both personally and for work. It's pretty underwhelming, doesn't really enable any experiences that you can't already have with a flat monitor, as shown by the basically dead VR software market. I think there's maybe some future for VR, maybe, but it's clearly currently on life support and I don't think Facebook has really shown anything interesting to turn that around.
- andybak 4y ago
  > doesn't really enable any experiences that you can't already have with a flat monitor Apart from presence, spatial awareness, 360 degree stereoscopy with 6DOF motion etc etc. Gravity Sketch, Tilt Brush, Beat Saber can't exist on a flat monitor. Most VR games would be radically different on a flat monitor (if they worked at all) > as shown by the basically dead VR software market. Either your info is slightly out of date or you've using a rather strict definition of "dead": https://www.roadtovr.com/oculus-quest-store-revenue-stats-data-apps-earning-1-million-meta-gdc/ https://www.roadtovr.com/oculus-quest-store-revenue-stats-da...
  - coldpie 4y ago
    The best applications you can point to are Gravity Sketch (2017), Tilt Brush (2016), and Beat Saber (2019). The OpenXR API standard hasn't seen an update since 2019. Valve has left the platform. HTC has left. Sony has left (yes, I know about the PSVR2, but it's clearly not a focus for the company). Microsoft, Nintendo, and Epic never even bothered trying to adopt the platform. There is only one company seriously invested in this ecosystem in 2022. This is not a healthy platform. It's on life support.
    - andybak 4y ago
      Goalpost moving. I picked apps that countered a specific point you made - which had nothing to do with recency. For the record I don't think VR is ever going to see sales like the smartphone market and I don't think it needs to. And I think the "metaverse" is a silly hype bubble. But I do think it's found a healthy niche. Most trends are upwards and income for devs is healthier than it's ever been. Sticking the knife in like you're trying to do just seems to be a little unneccesary - and isn't born out by the numbers I've seen.

snarf21 4y ago

I disagree but it won't be Hatebook. VR/AR porn will become huge in the next few years, including with connected devices. The main deterrent is getting the cost of the hardware down and Hatebook is doing it for them. If Pornhub were smart, they would poach a bunch of the Meta folks and go all in.

jbverschoor 4y ago
I’d love to have a highres headset which can create virtual monitors. That way I can be productive anywhere using multiple monitors, and more easily organize applications and windows spatially. Similar to what you used to - and sometimes still do - printing out 50 pages and laying them around the office
- inetknght 4y ago
  > I’d love to have a highres headset which can create virtual monitors. You want HTC Vive Pro at a minimum (it's high enough resolution to see much less pixelation) with Virtual Desktop or Bigscreen, both of which you can get on Steam. Support for Linux is sometimes spotty though. I sometimes have trouble with Steam VR on Linux. It does work but can require effort to get working, depending on your setup. [0]: https://store.steampowered.com/app/382110/Virtual_Desktop/ https://store.steampowered.com/app/382110/Virtual_Desktop/ [1]: https://store.steampowered.com/app/457550/Bigscreen_Beta https://store.steampowered.com/app/457550/Bigscreen_Beta
  - jbverschoor 4y ago
    I guess I'd want double the density of the HTC Vive Pro, and preferably even higher. Also, demos of the VD seem shaky. When I move my head, my monitor only seems to move 1 inch instead of the whole viewport shaking. This is because I'm also readjusting my eye-target. Without eyetracking/gazetracking and proper SDKs these things will still feel like a mouse (aim with your head)
    - inetknght 4y ago

rapsey 4y ago

Eventually AR will be the next paradigm after the smartphone. It takes many billions to get there. We should be glad Apple/Meta are investing in it. Meta is literally betting the company on it. Even if they fail, the engineers will continue with whoever has the money to try next.