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This is a very strong narrative making the rounds. Unfortunately it is not quite so. The batteries Tesla uses are a commodity - they are partnered with Panasoni

This is a very strong narrative making the rounds. Unfortunately it is not quite so. The batteries Tesla uses are a commodity - they are partnered with Panasonic and more recently the Chinese CATL (these guys do actual battery research, you know, with chemicals and lab coats). Certainly packaging Panasonic rolls into 2170s gives them a nice edge but it isn't exactly rocket science. The Giga press is made by the Italian Idra Group. They have bought them out at the moment but anybody can start nabbing them for themselves if they got a spare $30m laying around. Tesla is certainly "good at engineering", but their advantage is not really in original IP so much as organizational agility. Perhaps the incumbents are too bureaucratic to adapt but I wouldn't count them out just yet. As for software, give me a break. P.S. - I am actually a fan just not a fanboy.

paganel 5y ago
Not a fanboy by any stretch, as I'm totally anti-EV (I find the regressive taxes supporting this industry quite repulsive, to be honest), I've written down just what I thought was happening/what the reality on the ground was. > o much as organizational agility That's why I insisted on the "better software" part, that's where much of their advantage comes from. Maybe the Germans and the French can also source their batteries from the Chinese but they just haven't been able to put them to good use the way Tesla did (and does). For example right now Renault is selling a 20,000 euro EV (produced in China, of course) [1] which has atrocious autonomy, to say nothing of the fact that it feels very small. And that is supposed to be one of their main vehicles when it comes to targeting the EV mass-market, from one of the biggest car makers in the world. It's a complete joke. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia_Spring https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia_Spring
- recuter 5y ago
  Great, so now that we have established that nobody is a fanboy let us objectively take a gander at the current situation. Here is Doug Demuro reviewing the Volkswagen ID Buzz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4JraQ6KrVM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4JraQ6KrVM tl;dr: It is fine. Here he is reviewing the Rivian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYrunRy8hmw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYrunRy8hmw tl;dr: It is excellent. In fact he says "coolest pickup truck ever made". People who were excited about the cyber truck and know cars would rather get this one. > Maybe the Germans and the French can also source their batteries from the Chinese but they just haven't been able to put them to good use the way Tesla did (and does). Well.. I don't know about the French. ;) But Volkswagen will make you an electrified Golf just fine. And that is the best selling car in Europe. Toyota will make you a Yaris and a boring beige Prius. The bz4x is out now and getting good reviews: https://www.toyota.co.uk/new-cars/bz4x https://www.toyota.co.uk/new-cars/bz4x It is just fine, and slightly cheaper, and so longer term it is unclear how it will all play out.
dehrmann 5y ago
The real test for Tesla will be F150 Lightning vs Cyber Truck sales. If Ford can show strong sales, it shows that a focused incumbent can fend off an upstart competitor, despite the upstart's first-mover advantage on the drivetrain. The other sign to look for will be if European carmakers can slow Tesla's growth in the low to mid-end luxury market.
- recuter 5y ago
  The drivetrain is basically a commodity too, a much simpler component than an engine. Unlike with legacy vehicles people will be hard pressed to feel the difference. Based on teardowns Tesla is innovating here but even if they have an edge it is a tiny one (single digit percentage) because of diminishing returns.

paganel 5y ago

Not a fanboy by any stretch, as I'm totally anti-EV (I find the regressive taxes supporting this industry quite repulsive, to be honest), I've written down just what I thought was happening/what the reality on the ground was. > o much as organizational agility That's why I insisted on the "better software" part, that's where much of their advantage comes from. Maybe the Germans and the French can also source their batteries from the Chinese but they just haven't been able to put them to good use the way Tesla did (and does). For example right now Renault is selling a 20,000 euro EV (produced in China, of course) [1] which has atrocious autonomy, to say nothing of the fact that it feels very small. And that is supposed to be one of their main vehicles when it comes to targeting the EV mass-market, from one of the biggest car makers in the world. It's a complete joke. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia_Spring https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia_Spring

recuter 5y ago
Great, so now that we have established that nobody is a fanboy let us objectively take a gander at the current situation. Here is Doug Demuro reviewing the Volkswagen ID Buzz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4JraQ6KrVM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4JraQ6KrVM tl;dr: It is fine. Here he is reviewing the Rivian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYrunRy8hmw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYrunRy8hmw tl;dr: It is excellent. In fact he says "coolest pickup truck ever made". People who were excited about the cyber truck and know cars would rather get this one. > Maybe the Germans and the French can also source their batteries from the Chinese but they just haven't been able to put them to good use the way Tesla did (and does). Well.. I don't know about the French. ;) But Volkswagen will make you an electrified Golf just fine. And that is the best selling car in Europe. Toyota will make you a Yaris and a boring beige Prius. The bz4x is out now and getting good reviews: https://www.toyota.co.uk/new-cars/bz4x https://www.toyota.co.uk/new-cars/bz4x It is just fine, and slightly cheaper, and so longer term it is unclear how it will all play out.

dehrmann 5y ago

The real test for Tesla will be F150 Lightning vs Cyber Truck sales. If Ford can show strong sales, it shows that a focused incumbent can fend off an upstart competitor, despite the upstart's first-mover advantage on the drivetrain. The other sign to look for will be if European carmakers can slow Tesla's growth in the low to mid-end luxury market.

recuter 5y ago
The drivetrain is basically a commodity too, a much simpler component than an engine. Unlike with legacy vehicles people will be hard pressed to feel the difference. Based on teardowns Tesla is innovating here but even if they have an edge it is a tiny one (single digit percentage) because of diminishing returns.