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It's a bit of a perfect storm. You have the rampant wealth inequality and abusive practices that came from decoupling worker productivity from worker compensati

It's a bit of a perfect storm. You have the rampant wealth inequality and abusive practices that came from decoupling worker productivity from worker compensation beginning in the 1970s with demography. 2022 is average year of retirement for the baby boomers, the largest generation. For at least the next two or three decades labor is only going to get more expensive.

bequanna 5y ago
Labor will only get more expensive if: 1. We are too restrictive on immigration 2. Politicians keep pushing to hand out freebies for votes. Stealing the gift of purpose and motivation from many. Forcing them to be state dependents who live troubled, meaningless lower middle class lives in perpetuity.
- causality0 5y ago
  We would need a radical change on immigration to make a difference. Net migration from Mexico has been negative for years now. We should make those reforms but we aren't going to.
hakfoo 5y ago
It's harder to maintain the illusion of possible upward mobility. Let's look at a typical scenario. You graduate from university with 100k in student loans. Let's say you get a fairly decently paid entry-level job paying 75k. Great, you might be able to pay down those loans in 10 years, if not more. And when you're finally ready to buy a house, the ones that haven't been converted to rentals are all costing 8 or 10 times your annual salary. So you're asking someone at 21 to hope that everything works out and they might get the American Dream in their late 30s. Assuming there's no intervening major crises. Sure, there might be ways to slightly goose things, but they turn into terrible-quality-of-life stuff like "work 3 jobs", "live on rice and beans forever", or "constantly job-hop to seek out a higher salary." If these are your alternatives, maybe it doesn't seem so absurd to embrace stagnation. I'm in my early 40s. I did everything "right" -- I got a full-ride to university, studied CS, and acquired 15 years experience. I work for a mid-sized fintech firm and draw just over 100k. It's full remote since long before Covid, I generally work about 40-42 hours a week, and the technology is both interesting and feels actually important. I still don't feel like buying a new house is affordable on my budget. (Here's where you say "I should have been job-hopping every two years and making 400k at a FAANG by now/chasing an exit at some kale-as-a-service startup"). My parents were able to buy a house in 1988 for about 4x their annual salary, where the "salary" came from a modest skilled-trade worker. If I were to buy a comparable house in the same basic middle-class suburb, I'm looking at 6x my salary. I'm lucky in that I can live with them, pay down their mortgage, and be able to live reasonably well. But I sure as hell don't feel light years better off than my parents were at 40.
- gruez 5y ago
  >Let's look at a typical scenario. You graduate from university with 100k in student loans. A 100k balance at graduation is definitely not "typical". The average right now is $31k. https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-debt-by-year https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-debt-by-year
  - causality0 5y ago
    To be fair, making 75K straight out of uni also is not typical.
    - reducesuffering 5y ago
      GGP said "possible upward mobility" and it is very possible for many Americans to study a computer science BS, and make $140k out of college, now remote across the US.

bequanna 5y ago

Labor will only get more expensive if: 1. We are too restrictive on immigration 2. Politicians keep pushing to hand out freebies for votes. Stealing the gift of purpose and motivation from many. Forcing them to be state dependents who live troubled, meaningless lower middle class lives in perpetuity.

causality0 5y ago
We would need a radical change on immigration to make a difference. Net migration from Mexico has been negative for years now. We should make those reforms but we aren't going to.

hakfoo 5y ago

It's harder to maintain the illusion of possible upward mobility. Let's look at a typical scenario. You graduate from university with 100k in student loans. Let's say you get a fairly decently paid entry-level job paying 75k. Great, you might be able to pay down those loans in 10 years, if not more. And when you're finally ready to buy a house, the ones that haven't been converted to rentals are all costing 8 or 10 times your annual salary. So you're asking someone at 21 to hope that everything works out and they might get the American Dream in their late 30s. Assuming there's no intervening major crises. Sure, there might be ways to slightly goose things, but they turn into terrible-quality-of-life stuff like "work 3 jobs", "live on rice and beans forever", or "constantly job-hop to seek out a higher salary." If these are your alternatives, maybe it doesn't seem so absurd to embrace stagnation. I'm in my early 40s. I did everything "right" -- I got a full-ride to university, studied CS, and acquired 15 years experience. I work for a mid-sized fintech firm and draw just over 100k. It's full remote since long before Covid, I generally work about 40-42 hours a week, and the technology is both interesting and feels actually important. I still don't feel like buying a new house is affordable on my budget. (Here's where you say "I should have been job-hopping every two years and making 400k at a FAANG by now/chasing an exit at some kale-as-a-service startup"). My parents were able to buy a house in 1988 for about 4x their annual salary, where the "salary" came from a modest skilled-trade worker. If I were to buy a comparable house in the same basic middle-class suburb, I'm looking at 6x my salary. I'm lucky in that I can live with them, pay down their mortgage, and be able to live reasonably well. But I sure as hell don't feel light years better off than my parents were at 40.

gruez 5y ago
>Let's look at a typical scenario. You graduate from university with 100k in student loans. A 100k balance at graduation is definitely not "typical". The average right now is $31k. https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-debt-by-year https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-debt-by-year
- causality0 5y ago
  To be fair, making 75K straight out of uni also is not typical.
  - reducesuffering 5y ago
    GGP said "possible upward mobility" and it is very possible for many Americans to study a computer science BS, and make $140k out of college, now remote across the US.