> Still, his life is a constant stream of grievances from the people who feel he’s misinformed them. If he says there’s a 20 percent chance of rain and it rains

> Still, his life is a constant stream of grievances from the people who feel he’s misinformed them. If he says there’s a 20 percent chance of rain and it rains, everybody thinks he’s an idiot. Maybe it's because Michael Lewis also wrote Moneyball, but all I can think about when reading this is umpires in baseball. The accuracy of called pitches from home plate umpires throughout the 2021 season ranged from 91.3 percent to 95.6 percent [0]. Yet there are Twitter accounts, Youtube channels, articles, etc expressing just how terrible home plate umpires are at calling pitches. Had they not looked at the underlying numbers, I wouldn't hold it against anyone if they believed umpires only made correct calls a quarter of the time. [0] https://theathletic.com/2886178/2021/10/14/grading-mlb-umpires-meet-the-humans-behind-the-twitter-bots-that-track-balls-and-strikes/ https://theathletic.com/2886178/2021/10/14/grading-mlb-umpir...