4 ms·

Why Americans don’t trust experts

6 points by _Microft 4y ago

DougMellon 4y ago
> Still, his life is a constant stream of grievances from the people who feel he’s misinformed them. If he says there’s a 20 percent chance of rain and it rains, everybody thinks he’s an idiot. Maybe it's because Michael Lewis also wrote Moneyball, but all I can think about when reading this is umpires in baseball. The accuracy of called pitches from home plate umpires throughout the 2021 season ranged from 91.3 percent to 95.6 percent [0]. Yet there are Twitter accounts, Youtube channels, articles, etc expressing just how terrible home plate umpires are at calling pitches. Had they not looked at the underlying numbers, I wouldn't hold it against anyone if they believed umpires only made correct calls a quarter of the time. [0] https://theathletic.com/2886178/2021/10/14/grading-mlb-umpires-meet-the-humans-behind-the-twitter-bots-that-track-balls-and-strikes/ https://theathletic.com/2886178/2021/10/14/grading-mlb-umpir...
McLaren_Ferrari 4y ago
The article misses one important point. There will always be a level of distrust in society, the most effective way in which a human rational agent can minimize the distrust towards self will be (you guessed it) accusing others of being untrustworthy. This approach you can see especially in politicians, political pundits, talking heads, social media influencers, musicians, celebrity CEOs. It works by subtraction, flood the zone with attacks on everybody else character in order to make such attacks stick , while at the same time preventing attacks towards self from sticking. Experts (being high IQ individuals with a healthy passion in the field they are experts in) don't want to do all the above because they aren't interested in losing the respect of their peers just to get a higher approval rating among the general public. These people simply don't hang out with the general public. This means that they are easy preys. Trump had no problems attacking Fauci once he noticed that he was getting more TV time than him, that's because his only interest is gathering social and electoral consensus around him. Fauci in return could not attack Trump because he valued being able to show up at the CDC and lead a group of smart people who are easily turned off by ego (including ego which is solely of the defensive type). So he stood there taking punches without hitting back and his credibility diminished because Trump flooded the zone with attacks on his character
beardyw 4y ago
I think it's hilarious that their cookie policy is hidden behind the popup demanding that you accept it! That left me, on my phone, with a letterbox view through which I think I learned that they don't offer a proper opt-out anyway.

6 points by _Microft 4y ago

> Still, his life is a constant stream of grievances from the people who feel he’s misinformed them. If he says there’s a 20 percent chance of rain and it rains, everybody thinks he’s an idiot. Maybe it's because Michael Lewis also wrote Moneyball, but all I can think about when reading this is umpires in baseball. The accuracy of called pitches from home plate umpires throughout the 2021 season ranged from 91.3 percent to 95.6 percent [0]. Yet there are Twitter accounts, Youtube channels, articles, etc expressing just how terrible home plate umpires are at calling pitches. Had they not looked at the underlying numbers, I wouldn't hold it against anyone if they believed umpires only made correct calls a quarter of the time. [0] https://theathletic.com/2886178/2021/10/14/grading-mlb-umpires-meet-the-humans-behind-the-twitter-bots-that-track-balls-and-strikes/ https://theathletic.com/2886178/2021/10/14/grading-mlb-umpir...

McLaren_Ferrari 4y ago

The article misses one important point. There will always be a level of distrust in society, the most effective way in which a human rational agent can minimize the distrust towards self will be (you guessed it) accusing others of being untrustworthy. This approach you can see especially in politicians, political pundits, talking heads, social media influencers, musicians, celebrity CEOs. It works by subtraction, flood the zone with attacks on everybody else character in order to make such attacks stick , while at the same time preventing attacks towards self from sticking. Experts (being high IQ individuals with a healthy passion in the field they are experts in) don't want to do all the above because they aren't interested in losing the respect of their peers just to get a higher approval rating among the general public. These people simply don't hang out with the general public. This means that they are easy preys. Trump had no problems attacking Fauci once he noticed that he was getting more TV time than him, that's because his only interest is gathering social and electoral consensus around him. Fauci in return could not attack Trump because he valued being able to show up at the CDC and lead a group of smart people who are easily turned off by ego (including ego which is solely of the defensive type). So he stood there taking punches without hitting back and his credibility diminished because Trump flooded the zone with attacks on his character

beardyw 4y ago

I think it's hilarious that their cookie policy is hidden behind the popup demanding that you accept it! That left me, on my phone, with a letterbox view through which I think I learned that they don't offer a proper opt-out anyway.