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The Truth About Inflation: Why Milton Friedman Was Wrong, Again

2 points by groffee 4y ago

hirundo 4y ago
Because it's just a coincidence that we have soaring inflation after a couple of years of greatly increasing the money supply and keeping interest rates low while paying people not to work.
- incomingpain 4y ago
  While it's obvious that milton friedman is right, you concisely make the case. I think the blog does actually discover a possible additional rule. As inflation takes off there are winners like gasoline who are going to be earning big money suddenly and they can give raises to their people, retain people, and also even politically lobby and so you have an associated political power structure created. Alberta for example just won big and this blogger sees why. Whereas the federal government have been actively attacking them for years. They haven't been feeling on the team for quite some time.
- jfengel 4y ago
  We've been increasing the money supply and keeping interest rates low for a decade and a half. Even the "paying people to stay home" step happened two years before the actual inflation showed up -- and has long since ended when the inflation finally did happen. Friedman has no explanation for the fact that we've been pumping money into the economy for a very long time without consumer price inflation. So it doesn't benefit his argument to claim victory when inflation finally did occur -- especially when there's another, more direct cause in supply chain shutdowns. The Fed is starting to raise rates -- and it should have done so a long time ago. It wasn't raising consumer prices, but it was pumping asset markets. None of the money was making it to ordinary consumers.
incomingpain 4y ago
>Milton Friedman has been dead for more than a decade, but his ghost still haunts us. In the 1960s, Friedman declared that inflation is ‘always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon’ — a problem of printing too much money. Since then, whenever inflation rears its head, you can count on someone to reanimate Friedman’s ghost and blame the government for spending too much. Blair lists himself as being in Toronto. Here in Canada we only have 6.7% inflation, but it's also increasing at a faster rate than the USA. So we're going to be heading over 10% as well. Though something could be done about it. https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi Let's also not forget: https://globalnews.ca/news/8777276/inflation-interest-bank-of-canada-macklem/ https://globalnews.ca/news/8777276/inflation-interest-bank-o... They aren't ruling anything out LOL! How many mortgages are variable? In terms of new ones issued they became more popular than fixed. There are people in Toronto with their 2 million mortgages who now have bumped up 1% in a short time needing to pay $20,000/year more than they were. https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-variable-rate-mortgages-are-booming-should-we-be-worried https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/postha... If the bank of canada raises rates any higher the variable holders cant afford to keep their homes. House prices drop as rates rise. Who will be able to pay $100,000/year on a 10% mortgage on an average million dollar toronto townhouse? Literally nobody, home prices drop. People will end up simply walking away. You cancel your bank account, stop paying the mortgage and move out when you're evicted. So how many more interest rate increases can bank of canada do without blowing up the housing market? They printed all this money in order to keep the housing market from crashing... they cant raise rates much more... Good job bank of canada printing about $300 billion? https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-debt https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-debt https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/central-bank-balance-sheet https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/central-bank-balance-she... Mind you, that $300 billion is a double liability. There's no asset there. > At the same time that the price of apples rises by 5%, the price of cars could grow by 50%, and the price of clothing might fall by 20%. Nothing has fallen in price. Yes some have gone up more than others, Milton's argument is not invald on this. Energy being an inelastic commodity went up accordingly and can be seen as the leading indicator. Fruit though is very cyclical and slow in production. Fruit will go up 50% as well eventually, but for the time being hasn't gone up a significant amount. Lets also point out that inflation numbers inappropriately exclude a number of products/goods/services artificially lowering the average. >It is this real-world feature of inflation that is most important, because it means that inflation signals a change in society’s power structure. Predictably, it is this real-world feature that mainstream economists ignore — largely because it conflicts with their tidy theory of inflation as a ‘monetary phenomenon’. Fortunately, the evidence is clear. Inflation is (and has always been) overwhelmingly differential. Inflation is restructuring. Lets say we agree Milton Friedman is wrong. The thought of this political relationship is interesting. If you consider that perhaps political power is exercised by $ and this shift will at a minimum be able to buy politicians to get your way. This may also be true? So who runs the new power structure? Meats, Eggs, Gasoline, Other Energy, transportation. Alberta and Saskatch basically just become society's power structure? Sure it makes some sense. Did you see: https://rabble.ca/politics/canadian-politics/enjoy-the-reflected-glow-premier-kenney/ https://rabble.ca/politics/canadian-politics/enjoy-the-refle... Alberta met with the USA as if they were their own nation. That's the Albertan flag and not the Canadian flag in a nation2nation conference. Quebec is a nation within a nation right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_separatism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_separatism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_alienation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_alienation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_Declaration The reality that both Trudeaus have pushed western alienation to a breaking point. National energy program and this time a carbon tax. We as Canadians should be working together toward goals, the election defines the goals. Not just outright intentionally attacking each other. It's easy to show the attacks and say we are no longer the same team. Self-determination is our right and cya later. If Milton Friedman is wrong and this political power structure is true. Then I see Wexit as an inevitable practical reality. Trudeau promised Europe oil, but he cancelled energy east. He can't get oil to Europe, so Putin wins. No wonder he's emphasizing 'renewables'. Can you imagine how much more power Alberta gets when Trudeau has to go back and grovel to build a pipeline. I kind of wish I could move to Alberta right now.

2 points by groffee 4y ago

Because it's just a coincidence that we have soaring inflation after a couple of years of greatly increasing the money supply and keeping interest rates low while paying people not to work.

incomingpain 4y ago
While it's obvious that milton friedman is right, you concisely make the case. I think the blog does actually discover a possible additional rule. As inflation takes off there are winners like gasoline who are going to be earning big money suddenly and they can give raises to their people, retain people, and also even politically lobby and so you have an associated political power structure created. Alberta for example just won big and this blogger sees why. Whereas the federal government have been actively attacking them for years. They haven't been feeling on the team for quite some time.
jfengel 4y ago
We've been increasing the money supply and keeping interest rates low for a decade and a half. Even the "paying people to stay home" step happened two years before the actual inflation showed up -- and has long since ended when the inflation finally did happen. Friedman has no explanation for the fact that we've been pumping money into the economy for a very long time without consumer price inflation. So it doesn't benefit his argument to claim victory when inflation finally did occur -- especially when there's another, more direct cause in supply chain shutdowns. The Fed is starting to raise rates -- and it should have done so a long time ago. It wasn't raising consumer prices, but it was pumping asset markets. None of the money was making it to ordinary consumers.

incomingpain 4y ago

>Milton Friedman has been dead for more than a decade, but his ghost still haunts us. In the 1960s, Friedman declared that inflation is ‘always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon’ — a problem of printing too much money. Since then, whenever inflation rears its head, you can count on someone to reanimate Friedman’s ghost and blame the government for spending too much. Blair lists himself as being in Toronto. Here in Canada we only have 6.7% inflation, but it's also increasing at a faster rate than the USA. So we're going to be heading over 10% as well. Though something could be done about it. https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi Let's also not forget: https://globalnews.ca/news/8777276/inflation-interest-bank-of-canada-macklem/ https://globalnews.ca/news/8777276/inflation-interest-bank-o... They aren't ruling anything out LOL! How many mortgages are variable? In terms of new ones issued they became more popular than fixed. There are people in Toronto with their 2 million mortgages who now have bumped up 1% in a short time needing to pay $20,000/year more than they were. https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-variable-rate-mortgages-are-booming-should-we-be-worried https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/postha... If the bank of canada raises rates any higher the variable holders cant afford to keep their homes. House prices drop as rates rise. Who will be able to pay $100,000/year on a 10% mortgage on an average million dollar toronto townhouse? Literally nobody, home prices drop. People will end up simply walking away. You cancel your bank account, stop paying the mortgage and move out when you're evicted. So how many more interest rate increases can bank of canada do without blowing up the housing market? They printed all this money in order to keep the housing market from crashing... they cant raise rates much more... Good job bank of canada printing about $300 billion? https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-debt https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-debt https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/central-bank-balance-sheet https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/central-bank-balance-she... Mind you, that $300 billion is a double liability. There's no asset there. > At the same time that the price of apples rises by 5%, the price of cars could grow by 50%, and the price of clothing might fall by 20%. Nothing has fallen in price. Yes some have gone up more than others, Milton's argument is not invald on this. Energy being an inelastic commodity went up accordingly and can be seen as the leading indicator. Fruit though is very cyclical and slow in production. Fruit will go up 50% as well eventually, but for the time being hasn't gone up a significant amount. Lets also point out that inflation numbers inappropriately exclude a number of products/goods/services artificially lowering the average. >It is this real-world feature of inflation that is most important, because it means that inflation signals a change in society’s power structure. Predictably, it is this real-world feature that mainstream economists ignore — largely because it conflicts with their tidy theory of inflation as a ‘monetary phenomenon’. Fortunately, the evidence is clear. Inflation is (and has always been) overwhelmingly differential. Inflation is restructuring. Lets say we agree Milton Friedman is wrong. The thought of this political relationship is interesting. If you consider that perhaps political power is exercised by $ and this shift will at a minimum be able to buy politicians to get your way. This may also be true? So who runs the new power structure? Meats, Eggs, Gasoline, Other Energy, transportation. Alberta and Saskatch basically just become society's power structure? Sure it makes some sense. Did you see: https://rabble.ca/politics/canadian-politics/enjoy-the-reflected-glow-premier-kenney/ https://rabble.ca/politics/canadian-politics/enjoy-the-refle... Alberta met with the USA as if they were their own nation. That's the Albertan flag and not the Canadian flag in a nation2nation conference. Quebec is a nation within a nation right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_separatism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_separatism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_alienation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_alienation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_Declaration The reality that both Trudeaus have pushed western alienation to a breaking point. National energy program and this time a carbon tax. We as Canadians should be working together toward goals, the election defines the goals. Not just outright intentionally attacking each other. It's easy to show the attacks and say we are no longer the same team. Self-determination is our right and cya later. If Milton Friedman is wrong and this political power structure is true. Then I see Wexit as an inevitable practical reality. Trudeau promised Europe oil, but he cancelled energy east. He can't get oil to Europe, so Putin wins. No wonder he's emphasizing 'renewables'. Can you imagine how much more power Alberta gets when Trudeau has to go back and grovel to build a pipeline. I kind of wish I could move to Alberta right now.