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Tesla is shipping 1.2m cars / year and just finished two ginormous state of the art factories in Giga Berlin and Austin, that will end up doubling that. There i

Tesla is shipping 1.2m cars / year and just finished two ginormous state of the art factories in Giga Berlin and Austin, that will end up doubling that. There is so much demand for these autos, outside of Bel Air, that it currently takes 8 months for a Model Y order today to arrive, even though the current factories are producing full capacity. Why are you so hung up about credits from last year?

McLaren_Ferrari 5y ago
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- reducesuffering 5y ago
  You are confusing the past for what the future is going to be. We are heading into an EV sales only future in most developed economies by 2040. Already, Tesla Model 3 is the best selling luxury car in the US, Model Y production has just been ramping up to soon overtake crossover/SUV, and these are making money hand over fist so they are only focusing on this upper market while they’re production constrained. As soon as production ramps up they’ll start cutting into economy car markets just like they did luxury, and you’ll see 10m out of those 78m TAM. Meanwhile, they no longer have any debt while most other car mfgs are servicing massive 10-100b ish debt piles.
  - McLaren_Ferrari 5y ago
    > You are confusing the past for what the future is going to be Musk sued to gain control of Tesla in 2002. He's been talking and rambling about the future™ for 20 years now. 20 years, all while pocketing billions of government money. Now you are saying 2040, next year you'll say 2050, the year after that 2060. In the meantime he's getting paid hundreds of billions of dollars right now, not in the future™. It's typical of cults to extract money from believers right now in order to compensate the cult leader for work that he will complete 30 or 40 years into the future™. It's a scam. Amazon was built in 20 years and it also needed to deal with building factories in the real world, unions, logistics etc. Did so without govt. money and without constant pumps and equity raises. It's there selling 400B dollars worth of products every year. The guy who built it stepped down and the company is still there because its so solid that it can stand alone now. You know as well as I that if Musk OD's on one of his drugs of choice the whole scheme would collapse because the cult only has a reason to exist as long as the cult leader is there to show the way forward ....into the future™
    - reducesuffering 5y ago
      > “It's there selling 400B dollars worth of products every year.” Exactly. Tesla is selling $54b at 71% YoY revenue growth, while Amazon’s $470b is 22% growth.
      - McLaren_Ferrari 5y ago
        Also known as the difference between accomplishing something and talking about it. Amazon has total domination in the enterprise cloud business and is the largest player in online retail. But you know in the world of contraries , winning is a huge liability because it means you arrived at the end of the road, whereas failing to achieve more than 1.5% of market share in 20 years is a huge success because it allows people to daydream of infinite curves which go up & to the right forever after slouching for 20 years /s If you are good, you are good from the get go.
        reducesuffering 5y ago
        I'm just baffled you live in a world where Amazon with $400b sales is an example of achievement, but Tesla at $54b is an example of failure and cult. So does that make Nvidia ($27b), Visa and Mastercard (combined $43b), and Coca Cola ($39b) failures too?
        McLaren_Ferrari 5y ago
        I measure companies success/failure like I measure humans' : How many lives are gonna be disrupted if a company/human disappeared overnight? And how much the quality of life of the population is gonna go down the sink? In each and every case as the companies you mentioned the answer is a lot on both counts. Tesla, Porsche (35B) , the brands I have in my handle (Ferrari , McLaren) , Lamborghini, Gulfstream, Bombardier, Gucci, Sea-Ray....the answer is: not a much on both counts for all of them. Nobody cries for the toys of the rich, not even the rich because they can easily pivot towards other toys
- pedalpete 5y ago
  The stock doesn't need to trade on market share. Look at profits. Real $$ and growth of those real $$. $17B in Q1. With 80% YoY growth, and new factories able to supply the growing demand, it is within reason to expect $30B profit in Q4 (or Q1 2022 if you'd prefer). They are trading at 10x multiple on annual PROFIT. Toyota's profit last quarter was $6.8B with a market cap of $280B, and not growing. So they have annual profit of $28B, also trading at 10x multiple on annual profit. Makes tesla look like a good buy to me.

McLaren_Ferrari 5y ago

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reducesuffering 5y ago
You are confusing the past for what the future is going to be. We are heading into an EV sales only future in most developed economies by 2040. Already, Tesla Model 3 is the best selling luxury car in the US, Model Y production has just been ramping up to soon overtake crossover/SUV, and these are making money hand over fist so they are only focusing on this upper market while they’re production constrained. As soon as production ramps up they’ll start cutting into economy car markets just like they did luxury, and you’ll see 10m out of those 78m TAM. Meanwhile, they no longer have any debt while most other car mfgs are servicing massive 10-100b ish debt piles.
- McLaren_Ferrari 5y ago
  > You are confusing the past for what the future is going to be Musk sued to gain control of Tesla in 2002. He's been talking and rambling about the future™ for 20 years now. 20 years, all while pocketing billions of government money. Now you are saying 2040, next year you'll say 2050, the year after that 2060. In the meantime he's getting paid hundreds of billions of dollars right now, not in the future™. It's typical of cults to extract money from believers right now in order to compensate the cult leader for work that he will complete 30 or 40 years into the future™. It's a scam. Amazon was built in 20 years and it also needed to deal with building factories in the real world, unions, logistics etc. Did so without govt. money and without constant pumps and equity raises. It's there selling 400B dollars worth of products every year. The guy who built it stepped down and the company is still there because its so solid that it can stand alone now. You know as well as I that if Musk OD's on one of his drugs of choice the whole scheme would collapse because the cult only has a reason to exist as long as the cult leader is there to show the way forward ....into the future™
  - reducesuffering 5y ago
    > “It's there selling 400B dollars worth of products every year.” Exactly. Tesla is selling $54b at 71% YoY revenue growth, while Amazon’s $470b is 22% growth.
    - McLaren_Ferrari 5y ago
      Also known as the difference between accomplishing something and talking about it. Amazon has total domination in the enterprise cloud business and is the largest player in online retail. But you know in the world of contraries , winning is a huge liability because it means you arrived at the end of the road, whereas failing to achieve more than 1.5% of market share in 20 years is a huge success because it allows people to daydream of infinite curves which go up & to the right forever after slouching for 20 years /s If you are good, you are good from the get go.
      - reducesuffering 5y ago
        I'm just baffled you live in a world where Amazon with $400b sales is an example of achievement, but Tesla at $54b is an example of failure and cult. So does that make Nvidia ($27b), Visa and Mastercard (combined $43b), and Coca Cola ($39b) failures too?
        McLaren_Ferrari 5y ago
        I measure companies success/failure like I measure humans' : How many lives are gonna be disrupted if a company/human disappeared overnight? And how much the quality of life of the population is gonna go down the sink? In each and every case as the companies you mentioned the answer is a lot on both counts. Tesla, Porsche (35B) , the brands I have in my handle (Ferrari , McLaren) , Lamborghini, Gulfstream, Bombardier, Gucci, Sea-Ray....the answer is: not a much on both counts for all of them. Nobody cries for the toys of the rich, not even the rich because they can easily pivot towards other toys
pedalpete 5y ago
The stock doesn't need to trade on market share. Look at profits. Real $$ and growth of those real $$. $17B in Q1. With 80% YoY growth, and new factories able to supply the growing demand, it is within reason to expect $30B profit in Q4 (or Q1 2022 if you'd prefer). They are trading at 10x multiple on annual PROFIT. Toyota's profit last quarter was $6.8B with a market cap of $280B, and not growing. So they have annual profit of $28B, also trading at 10x multiple on annual profit. Makes tesla look like a good buy to me.