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Ok, Newtons law of gravity is settled science but also wrong. The “settled” science of climate change makes wildly inaccurate predictions on earth, during time

by _3u10 4y ago

Ok, Newtons law of gravity is settled science but also wrong. The “settled” science of climate change makes wildly inaccurate predictions on earth, during time periods we have lots of data on. Aren’t we past the point of no return 8 times over now?

dlivingston 4y ago
To your points: 1) Newton's Law of Gravity is not wrong, it is just incomplete. Newton's Law of Gravity is a critical formula used for calculating rocket trajectories and behaviors. It is correct but has 'boundaries' where Einstein's General Theory of Relativity takes over. 2) I'm not sure what this means. 3) I'm not sure what this means.
- mechanical_bear 4y ago
  This is my interpretation of his statement: 3)Dates for “Certain Doom”, with regards to the climate, have been proffered by prognosticators of climate science. Much like those that predict the religious End Of Time, these dates invariably pass with no notice or fanfare.
  - Retric 4y ago
    That’s a serious straw man argument. Where exactly do you see some “Certain Doom” prediction in say an IPCC report that’s predicted something beyond X equivalent CO2 results in Y temperature? The 2022 version for example basically says 1.5C above preindustrial levels by 2025. That’s not some doom that’s basically exactly where we are now and only relevant because the keep updating past predictions. Go back to reports from 1990 and 1.5C in 2025 is well within error bars. We are experiencing negative effects that could have been avoided in 1990, then again things could also have been worse before now without quite a lot effort into improving efficiency etc. Predictions further into the future assume net emissions continue and therefore the effects will be worse. That’s not some “doom” that’s cause and effect. 1.5C, 2C, 2.5C, and even 3C, as long as net emissions continue we well eventually reach all of those milestones. Arguably what’s changing is 2025 and 2040 etc don’t seem to be in the distant future they way they seemed in 1990. Kids today are thinking they could be around in 2100.
nobodyandproud 4y ago
Not OP and not a physicist. I think wrongness is inherent to any well-proven theory, because each theory is a model. It’s just understanding where the theory falls apart and where it makes accurate and useful predictions. Like Newtonian physic. Even where it’s accurate, the math can get hard for very simple scenarios. The classic three-body problem can be computed; but it’s also inherently chaotic so any computation quickly becomes inaccurate (sensitive to initial values). I think they compute many different times with different initial conditions, to generate probabilities. I imagine the climate science of “what happens” is also the same: We may not turn into Venus, but we also know all that excess heat and energy has to go somewhere and in our fragile global supply chain it won’t take much to make a disaster. Still, I don’t like the quasi-religious aura that climate journalism has. It’s very off-puttingz

by _3u10 4y ago

dlivingston 4y ago

To your points: 1) Newton's Law of Gravity is not wrong, it is just incomplete. Newton's Law of Gravity is a critical formula used for calculating rocket trajectories and behaviors. It is correct but has 'boundaries' where Einstein's General Theory of Relativity takes over. 2) I'm not sure what this means. 3) I'm not sure what this means.

mechanical_bear 4y ago
This is my interpretation of his statement: 3)Dates for “Certain Doom”, with regards to the climate, have been proffered by prognosticators of climate science. Much like those that predict the religious End Of Time, these dates invariably pass with no notice or fanfare.
- Retric 4y ago
  That’s a serious straw man argument. Where exactly do you see some “Certain Doom” prediction in say an IPCC report that’s predicted something beyond X equivalent CO2 results in Y temperature? The 2022 version for example basically says 1.5C above preindustrial levels by 2025. That’s not some doom that’s basically exactly where we are now and only relevant because the keep updating past predictions. Go back to reports from 1990 and 1.5C in 2025 is well within error bars. We are experiencing negative effects that could have been avoided in 1990, then again things could also have been worse before now without quite a lot effort into improving efficiency etc. Predictions further into the future assume net emissions continue and therefore the effects will be worse. That’s not some “doom” that’s cause and effect. 1.5C, 2C, 2.5C, and even 3C, as long as net emissions continue we well eventually reach all of those milestones. Arguably what’s changing is 2025 and 2040 etc don’t seem to be in the distant future they way they seemed in 1990. Kids today are thinking they could be around in 2100.

nobodyandproud 4y ago

Not OP and not a physicist. I think wrongness is inherent to any well-proven theory, because each theory is a model. It’s just understanding where the theory falls apart and where it makes accurate and useful predictions. Like Newtonian physic. Even where it’s accurate, the math can get hard for very simple scenarios. The classic three-body problem can be computed; but it’s also inherently chaotic so any computation quickly becomes inaccurate (sensitive to initial values). I think they compute many different times with different initial conditions, to generate probabilities. I imagine the climate science of “what happens” is also the same: We may not turn into Venus, but we also know all that excess heat and energy has to go somewhere and in our fragile global supply chain it won’t take much to make a disaster. Still, I don’t like the quasi-religious aura that climate journalism has. It’s very off-puttingz