4 ms·
in the past 5 or so years, off the top of my head: - phone call between Trump and Ingwen - confirming US military presence in Taiwan (alleged PRC red line)
by LAC-Tech 5y ago
in the past 5 or so years, off the top of my head:
- phone call between Trump and Ingwen
- confirming US military presence in Taiwan (alleged PRC red
line)
- Officially released videos showing US military training with ROC forces in Taiwan
- Higher and higher level US officials visiting Taiwan
- Vice presidents of respective countries seen talking together
The things you list that the US still is not doing, I fully expect them to start doing. It would be in the framework of the US one china policy, but it would continue the trend of salami slicing their way to dual recognition. It would probably be in PRCs interest to negotiate the status of Taiwan with Taiwan directly to save face before this happens.
Not sure why you're so pre-occupied with the lack of aircraft carrier transit. Let's say one was targeted by PRC missiles while transiting in international waters. Do you think that would be the end of it? The repercussions of that would hurt the PRC more than vice versa.
- dirtyid 5y agoUS troops for training, not redline, understood exception as resulit of TW relations act. I expect US to continue salami slicing as well, and I anticipate situation will turn hot eventually. There's no need to negotiate with TW, it's ultimately a US/PRC force balance issue. Re: carriers, I was highlighting to OP that there are constraints to US actions imposed by PRC, both militarily and in other examples, i.e. politically. You insinutate it's not US caution but PRC fear, which makes no sense in context of how careful US is shifting TW policy, because force balance is not disproportionate like during 3rd strait crisis anymore, US repercussions are approaching existential as well. As for who loses more, up for debate, but IMO a reigning hegemon has more to lose.