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Still, I am eagerly awaiting the day when someone conclusively nails the obesity epidemic down to something as simple as gut dysbiosis. That's unlikely to happ

Still, I am eagerly awaiting the day when someone conclusively nails the obesity epidemic down to something as simple as gut dysbiosis. That's unlikely to happen. Nutritional content of produce has gone down, people eat fewer home-cooked meals and we drive more and walk less, among other things. So it's not likely to boil down to "This one simple trick!" that can be solved with a simple product one can buy for cheap.

matthewdgreen 5y ago
If you look at the timing of the obesity epidemic you notice that it has a very sharp “knee” in the US around the 1970s. It does not coincide with the introduction of fast food or the automobile or sedentary living, and contemporary people exercise more in many cases than they did in the 60s and 70s, with vastly higher BMI as a result. The same pattern occurs in other countries just at later times. And the effect size is huge. Much larger than anything we can achieve with diet and exercise (durably) or even the best weight loss drugs. I don’t know what’s causing it, but “gosh people eat poorly” doesn’t seem like a good explanation. I thought this was a good (amateur, but accessible) summary of some of the stats: https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/07/a-chemical-hunger-part-i-mysteries/amp/ https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/07/a-chemical-hunger-p...
- lenocinor 5y ago
  This is a startling and very interesting article. Thank you!
- DoreenMichele 5y ago
  I don’t know what’s causing it, but “gosh people eat poorly” doesn’t seem like a good explanation. I'm not sure what your point is because what I said boils down to "There seem to be multiple factors, not any one thing." I've lost multiple dress sizes by improving my health when losing weight wasn't a goal at all. Among other things, that experience informs my views and I don't really know how to engage whatever point you are trying to make that seems to not really engage with anything I actually said. But thank you for the link. It's got a take I hadn't previously seen.
  - matthewdgreen 5y ago
    Me too. But fundamentally I’ve never consistently long-term kept my weight below where my body seems to want it. Enjoy that link. I think they’re right in the early parts but maybe they don’t quite land it at the end.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  Available calories went way up (and so did disposable income): https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/91/5/1530S/4597478 https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/91/5/1530S/4597478 Of course availability is not a perfect proxy for consumption, but they are probably somewhat related. And people got more sedentary over the same period.
- philwelch 5y ago
  That’s exactly when health experts and the government started to heavily promote the low fat diet.
- scns 5y ago
  > “gosh people eat poorly” doesn’t seem like a good explanation. Maybe they drink poorly? One guy shown in Super Size Me drank 8 litres of soda a day IIRC. The body has no use for fructose, it can only be converted in the liver to fat. You can even get a fatty liver from it, like with too much alcohol. Soda is usually sweetend with HFCS (high fructose corn syrup) no?
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    Fructose is converted into glycogen in the liver, which is then converted into glucose or fat, the body uses fructose just fine. Regularly consuming 5000 calories of anything sugary or starchy is going to be a problem for most people.
dehrmann 5y ago
> Nutritional content of produce has gone down I doubt doubt the findings, but I haven't heard of an epidemic of micronutrient deficiencies. With a lot of micronutrients, you only need so much, and then your body dumps the rest. What you're saying might be true, but I'm not convinced it's a problem.
- DoreenMichele 5y ago
  But there does seem to be an epidemic of "mystery ailments" with no real explanation. What if that's not some bizarre coincidence and is actually related in a cause and effect manner?

matthewdgreen 5y ago

If you look at the timing of the obesity epidemic you notice that it has a very sharp “knee” in the US around the 1970s. It does not coincide with the introduction of fast food or the automobile or sedentary living, and contemporary people exercise more in many cases than they did in the 60s and 70s, with vastly higher BMI as a result. The same pattern occurs in other countries just at later times. And the effect size is huge. Much larger than anything we can achieve with diet and exercise (durably) or even the best weight loss drugs. I don’t know what’s causing it, but “gosh people eat poorly” doesn’t seem like a good explanation. I thought this was a good (amateur, but accessible) summary of some of the stats: https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/07/a-chemical-hunger-part-i-mysteries/amp/ https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/07/a-chemical-hunger-p...

lenocinor 5y ago
This is a startling and very interesting article. Thank you!
DoreenMichele 5y ago
I don’t know what’s causing it, but “gosh people eat poorly” doesn’t seem like a good explanation. I'm not sure what your point is because what I said boils down to "There seem to be multiple factors, not any one thing." I've lost multiple dress sizes by improving my health when losing weight wasn't a goal at all. Among other things, that experience informs my views and I don't really know how to engage whatever point you are trying to make that seems to not really engage with anything I actually said. But thank you for the link. It's got a take I hadn't previously seen.
- matthewdgreen 5y ago
  Me too. But fundamentally I’ve never consistently long-term kept my weight below where my body seems to want it. Enjoy that link. I think they’re right in the early parts but maybe they don’t quite land it at the end.
maxerickson 5y ago
Available calories went way up (and so did disposable income): https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/91/5/1530S/4597478 https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/91/5/1530S/4597478 Of course availability is not a perfect proxy for consumption, but they are probably somewhat related. And people got more sedentary over the same period.
philwelch 5y ago
That’s exactly when health experts and the government started to heavily promote the low fat diet.
scns 5y ago
> “gosh people eat poorly” doesn’t seem like a good explanation. Maybe they drink poorly? One guy shown in Super Size Me drank 8 litres of soda a day IIRC. The body has no use for fructose, it can only be converted in the liver to fat. You can even get a fatty liver from it, like with too much alcohol. Soda is usually sweetend with HFCS (high fructose corn syrup) no?
- maxerickson 5y ago
  Fructose is converted into glycogen in the liver, which is then converted into glucose or fat, the body uses fructose just fine. Regularly consuming 5000 calories of anything sugary or starchy is going to be a problem for most people.

dehrmann 5y ago

> Nutritional content of produce has gone down I doubt doubt the findings, but I haven't heard of an epidemic of micronutrient deficiencies. With a lot of micronutrients, you only need so much, and then your body dumps the rest. What you're saying might be true, but I'm not convinced it's a problem.

DoreenMichele 5y ago
But there does seem to be an epidemic of "mystery ailments" with no real explanation. What if that's not some bizarre coincidence and is actually related in a cause and effect manner?