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NATO (US) - Russia deterrence model rests on nuclear deterrence, and most importantly on the fact that Russia can guarantee MAD in retaliation against US becaus

by oxff 4y ago

NATO (US) - Russia deterrence model rests on nuclear deterrence, and most importantly on the fact that Russia can guarantee MAD in retaliation against US because they have a huge stock pile of them. This deterrence model is not itself changed if Russia detonates a nuke in a non-NATO country. If it were, we could just skip past that and just send nukes to their military installations right now. That said it's only a deterrence model if you have stone cold people like the people who set up the MAD system. It might break when it is lead by hysterical people and then MAD becomes "acceptable cost". And I make it a 0 probability event that Russia uses a nuke in Ukraine. They're winning, they're using limited warfare (ie. no mobilization in RF), NATO probably follows the nuclear deterrence calculus, and they see the Ukrainians as part of the Russian people (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-Russian_nation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-Russian_nation) based on Putin's speeches.

NicoJuicy 4y ago
Based on what are they winning? They haven't even captured 1 big city and they needed to regroup. How can you even claim NATO sees them as Russians. Look at the military assistance ( now even heavy equipment)
- simonblack 4y ago
  They haven't even captured 1 big city Urban warfare is the most useless form of warfare. If anybody could learn the lessons from the Wehrmacht's disaster in Stalingrad, it would be the Russians. Note that the West still bombs cities, which converts the ruins into hundreds of defensive positions that have to be taken slowly and with heavy casualties. The Russians tend to leave cities mostly intact and flow around them, very similar in a way to the US policy of 'island-hopping' in the Pacific during World War 2.
- oxff 4y ago
  "How are they winning?", like what? Look at the maps. Ukraine has lost substantial land mass to Russia. And it is the Russians that see Ukrainians as part of the same people.
- eveningcoffee 4y ago
  Both other comments here are factually wrong written by two deluded pro Russians. The fact is that actually Russians do not see Ukrainians as the same people. They want that Ukrainians would see themselves as Russians but they do not think that they are equal. So neither is true. It is also not correct when either language or culture is compared. Ukraine and Russia are much more different than Austria and Germany. At best it could be compared as Netherlands and Germany. In fact one of the main reasons of this war is the attempt to eliminate Ukrainian nation. This has been told by Vladimir Putin also by his propagandist in writing and in TV. By this moment it is clear without doubt that main intention of this war is to commit genocide against Ukrainians. You can read about the Russian Endlösung from here https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-editorial-ukraine-identity-1.6407921 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-editorial-ukraine-iden... Claim that NATO does definitely see Ukrainians as Russians, this is simply blatant lie made to confuse you and others. Russia has massed large forces with strong superiority in armored vehicles but it is not helping them because of Ukrainians can destroy them from distance using anti-tank missiles, artillery and drones. At current stage, also long range self propelled artillery has started to arrive and also other heavy equipment. Ukraine won battle for Kyiv and is holding its position against second wave attack from east. While Russians have managed to push to west, they do with with heavy causalities and at the current moment Ukraine is winning in the causality game by large margin. Mariupol is problematic but it is far from taken as Russians falsely claim for propaganda reasons. Claim that Russia does not bomb or shell cities is again blatant lie which is simply not true. Russia has damaged 90% of the buildings in Mariupol and they have engaged actively in urban warfare with heavy losses in life and equipment. Russia has mostly also failed to do city hopping and they are blocked in vicinity of larger cities. They have not also welcomed by local population in surrounded cities they have entered. Civil protest have followed instead. Nobody wants Russians in Ukraine. Especially not Ukrainians. So we have here two lying pro-Russians. I do not know why they are doing it. Are they not ashamed after what has been revealed in Bucha and in rest of Northern Ukraine?
  - oxff 4y ago
    > Both other comments here are factually wrong written by two deluded pro Russians. I was directly referencing Putin's speech where it seems to me he considers Ukrainians as part of the same people which would logically reduce the probability of nuclear strike. The statement I wrote had exactly zero voice of mine coloring it. > Claim that NATO does definitely see Ukrainians as Russians You could have simply read my second post in which I clarified that Putin sees them as part of same people (based on his speeches). That you run into discussion, not reading the posts and claiming people are liars is insane-person behavior.
- eveningcoffee 4y ago
  One more note. This look how much land we control is also nonsense. Russian forces advanced easily until they encountered resistance, after what their advancement stalled. They tried multiple times to reach Odessa but failed and now their Black sea flagship is at the bottom of Black sea. Something must have gone wrong with the advancement from Crimea. I have heard that there might have been betrayal on Ukrainian side and some of the bridges were not demolished to slow down Russian advancement from Crimea. This has been bad for Mariupol because it was not possible to encircle it from both directions. The strip between Crimea and Dnepr is very difficult to hold because when Ukraine can take Melitopol then Russian forces in Kherson risk encirclement.

by oxff 4y ago

NicoJuicy 4y ago

Based on what are they winning? They haven't even captured 1 big city and they needed to regroup. How can you even claim NATO sees them as Russians. Look at the military assistance ( now even heavy equipment)

simonblack 4y ago
They haven't even captured 1 big city Urban warfare is the most useless form of warfare. If anybody could learn the lessons from the Wehrmacht's disaster in Stalingrad, it would be the Russians. Note that the West still bombs cities, which converts the ruins into hundreds of defensive positions that have to be taken slowly and with heavy casualties. The Russians tend to leave cities mostly intact and flow around them, very similar in a way to the US policy of 'island-hopping' in the Pacific during World War 2.
oxff 4y ago
"How are they winning?", like what? Look at the maps. Ukraine has lost substantial land mass to Russia. And it is the Russians that see Ukrainians as part of the same people.
eveningcoffee 4y ago
Both other comments here are factually wrong written by two deluded pro Russians. The fact is that actually Russians do not see Ukrainians as the same people. They want that Ukrainians would see themselves as Russians but they do not think that they are equal. So neither is true. It is also not correct when either language or culture is compared. Ukraine and Russia are much more different than Austria and Germany. At best it could be compared as Netherlands and Germany. In fact one of the main reasons of this war is the attempt to eliminate Ukrainian nation. This has been told by Vladimir Putin also by his propagandist in writing and in TV. By this moment it is clear without doubt that main intention of this war is to commit genocide against Ukrainians. You can read about the Russian Endlösung from here https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-editorial-ukraine-identity-1.6407921 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-editorial-ukraine-iden... Claim that NATO does definitely see Ukrainians as Russians, this is simply blatant lie made to confuse you and others. Russia has massed large forces with strong superiority in armored vehicles but it is not helping them because of Ukrainians can destroy them from distance using anti-tank missiles, artillery and drones. At current stage, also long range self propelled artillery has started to arrive and also other heavy equipment. Ukraine won battle for Kyiv and is holding its position against second wave attack from east. While Russians have managed to push to west, they do with with heavy causalities and at the current moment Ukraine is winning in the causality game by large margin. Mariupol is problematic but it is far from taken as Russians falsely claim for propaganda reasons. Claim that Russia does not bomb or shell cities is again blatant lie which is simply not true. Russia has damaged 90% of the buildings in Mariupol and they have engaged actively in urban warfare with heavy losses in life and equipment. Russia has mostly also failed to do city hopping and they are blocked in vicinity of larger cities. They have not also welcomed by local population in surrounded cities they have entered. Civil protest have followed instead. Nobody wants Russians in Ukraine. Especially not Ukrainians. So we have here two lying pro-Russians. I do not know why they are doing it. Are they not ashamed after what has been revealed in Bucha and in rest of Northern Ukraine?
- oxff 4y ago
  > Both other comments here are factually wrong written by two deluded pro Russians. I was directly referencing Putin's speech where it seems to me he considers Ukrainians as part of the same people which would logically reduce the probability of nuclear strike. The statement I wrote had exactly zero voice of mine coloring it. > Claim that NATO does definitely see Ukrainians as Russians You could have simply read my second post in which I clarified that Putin sees them as part of same people (based on his speeches). That you run into discussion, not reading the posts and claiming people are liars is insane-person behavior.
eveningcoffee 4y ago
One more note. This look how much land we control is also nonsense. Russian forces advanced easily until they encountered resistance, after what their advancement stalled. They tried multiple times to reach Odessa but failed and now their Black sea flagship is at the bottom of Black sea. Something must have gone wrong with the advancement from Crimea. I have heard that there might have been betrayal on Ukrainian side and some of the bridges were not demolished to slow down Russian advancement from Crimea. This has been bad for Mariupol because it was not possible to encircle it from both directions. The strip between Crimea and Dnepr is very difficult to hold because when Ukraine can take Melitopol then Russian forces in Kherson risk encirclement.