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They're leveling cities near the areas that they invaded in 2014 which don't require extensive logistics. They're losing in the rest of the country because the

They're leveling cities near the areas that they invaded in 2014 which don't require extensive logistics. They're losing in the rest of the country because the Ukrainian military is pretty effective, the Russians are logistically incompetent and can barely maintain air superiority (due largely to the West providing highly effective AA weapons), and Ukraine is a huge country with a very determined populace.

blagie 5y ago
Levelling cities in the rest of Ukraine wouldn't be hard either, if Russia chose to do so. Carpet bombing, cruise missiles, ICBMs, etc. would all do it, kill a lot of civilians, and are within Russia's military capacity. Killing soldiers in bunkers, dug-in in trenches, and underground? Not so much.
- fabian2k 5y ago
  Ukraine still has working air defense, Russia is quite obviously afraid of sending bombers deep into Ukraine.
  - blagie 5y ago
    Sort of. A lot of it depends on precision and altitude. I think a high-altitude bomber, carpet-bombing, with a fighter escort, would be pretty safe from Russia's perspective. Stingers can hit up to 3.8km. Starstreak is 5km. Etc. For comparison, a B2 flies at 15km. Ukraine does have some defences there -- an S300 will shoot down targets that high, and fighters will go that high -- but it's a much harder problem. That's why Ukraine is asking fighter jets, S300/Patriot-style systems, and a no-fly zone. If Russia starts carpet bombing before Ukraine get those, it's game over for Ukraine. That doesn't mean Russia won the war -- the military will keep fighting -- just that Ukrainan population will have lost: - The country will be rubble. - Massive civilian causalities - Economy on par with Iraq during ISIS or Afghanistan today - Need for post-WWII style reconstruction ... and so on.
    - mrguyorama 5y ago
      The rebuttal to this argument of "Well russia could just flatten them if they want" is, well, why hasn't russia done so?
      - blagie 5y ago
        Because it's a bad idea to do so. If Russia were to commit true genocide -- kill 40 million people in Ukraine by levelling the country -- it would serve no military purpose. On the other hand: - Putin would go down in history as worse than Hitler - Thousands of people -- including, for example, Russians with relatives in Ukraine -- would want to kill Putin. Russia would have a terrorist and fifth column problem unprecedented in the history of the world. - Russia would go from "outcast" to "North Korea level outcast." China and India would almost certainly turn against it - It just might be far enough to draw NATO / EU into the war. That's a war Russia is guaranteed to lose. If nukes fly, everyone loses. If they don't, Russia loses. ... and so on. How would it advance Russia's interests? The above far outweighs the benefits (oil, Crimea, and a bit of a buffer zone).
imwillofficial 5y ago
"Russians are logistically incompetent and can barely maintain air superiority" This is categorically false, look at the insane 1200 airstrikes that were launched in the last week.
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  > This is categorically false, look at the insane 1200 airstrikes that were launched in the last week. That'd be an insanely high number, yes. You misread things: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-says-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-has-moved-into-the-next-phase-0j6kwmggd https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-says-russian-inv... "Russia claims to have hit more than 1,200 targets in Ukraine with missiles, artillery and airstrikes overnight as it launched a long-awaited new offensive in the Donbas region." Also, no one doubts that the Russians are flying air missions, but "air superiority" means something far more than that.
- mikeyouse 5y ago
  Like pointed out elsewhere, "1,200 strikes" includes artillery, missiles and airstrikes so most of those were clearly not delivered via planes. In any case, where are they striking? Nearly all of their air sorties are near DPR / Mariupol / Kharkiv, just across the border from Russia. They had deep air access when they were pushing to establish Antonov Airport as a forward base/landing site but when they failed to capture the airport, it seems like all of their plans fell apart. It's been incredible watching the sheer number of downed Russian aircraft.. OSINT folks like Oryx have IDed a substantial number of these but the Ukraine MOD shows over 300 combined aircraft losses, over 800 tanks, 2000 APCs, etc etc etc. This is not a successful military operation: https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1517395823386050560 https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1517395823386050560

blagie 5y ago

Levelling cities in the rest of Ukraine wouldn't be hard either, if Russia chose to do so. Carpet bombing, cruise missiles, ICBMs, etc. would all do it, kill a lot of civilians, and are within Russia's military capacity. Killing soldiers in bunkers, dug-in in trenches, and underground? Not so much.

fabian2k 5y ago
Ukraine still has working air defense, Russia is quite obviously afraid of sending bombers deep into Ukraine.
- blagie 5y ago
  Sort of. A lot of it depends on precision and altitude. I think a high-altitude bomber, carpet-bombing, with a fighter escort, would be pretty safe from Russia's perspective. Stingers can hit up to 3.8km. Starstreak is 5km. Etc. For comparison, a B2 flies at 15km. Ukraine does have some defences there -- an S300 will shoot down targets that high, and fighters will go that high -- but it's a much harder problem. That's why Ukraine is asking fighter jets, S300/Patriot-style systems, and a no-fly zone. If Russia starts carpet bombing before Ukraine get those, it's game over for Ukraine. That doesn't mean Russia won the war -- the military will keep fighting -- just that Ukrainan population will have lost: - The country will be rubble. - Massive civilian causalities - Economy on par with Iraq during ISIS or Afghanistan today - Need for post-WWII style reconstruction ... and so on.
  - mrguyorama 5y ago
    The rebuttal to this argument of "Well russia could just flatten them if they want" is, well, why hasn't russia done so?
    - blagie 5y ago
      Because it's a bad idea to do so. If Russia were to commit true genocide -- kill 40 million people in Ukraine by levelling the country -- it would serve no military purpose. On the other hand: - Putin would go down in history as worse than Hitler - Thousands of people -- including, for example, Russians with relatives in Ukraine -- would want to kill Putin. Russia would have a terrorist and fifth column problem unprecedented in the history of the world. - Russia would go from "outcast" to "North Korea level outcast." China and India would almost certainly turn against it - It just might be far enough to draw NATO / EU into the war. That's a war Russia is guaranteed to lose. If nukes fly, everyone loses. If they don't, Russia loses. ... and so on. How would it advance Russia's interests? The above far outweighs the benefits (oil, Crimea, and a bit of a buffer zone).

imwillofficial 5y ago

"Russians are logistically incompetent and can barely maintain air superiority" This is categorically false, look at the insane 1200 airstrikes that were launched in the last week.

ceejayoz 5y ago
> This is categorically false, look at the insane 1200 airstrikes that were launched in the last week. That'd be an insanely high number, yes. You misread things: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-says-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-has-moved-into-the-next-phase-0j6kwmggd https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-says-russian-inv... "Russia claims to have hit more than 1,200 targets in Ukraine with missiles, artillery and airstrikes overnight as it launched a long-awaited new offensive in the Donbas region." Also, no one doubts that the Russians are flying air missions, but "air superiority" means something far more than that.
mikeyouse 5y ago
Like pointed out elsewhere, "1,200 strikes" includes artillery, missiles and airstrikes so most of those were clearly not delivered via planes. In any case, where are they striking? Nearly all of their air sorties are near DPR / Mariupol / Kharkiv, just across the border from Russia. They had deep air access when they were pushing to establish Antonov Airport as a forward base/landing site but when they failed to capture the airport, it seems like all of their plans fell apart. It's been incredible watching the sheer number of downed Russian aircraft.. OSINT folks like Oryx have IDed a substantial number of these but the Ukraine MOD shows over 300 combined aircraft losses, over 800 tanks, 2000 APCs, etc etc etc. This is not a successful military operation: https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1517395823386050560 https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1517395823386050560