Thanks for writing! Really valuable rebuttal imo. I’m not a statistician but I do have some basic training in psychometrics. It might be interesting/helpful to

Thanks for writing! Really valuable rebuttal imo. I’m not a statistician but I do have some basic training in psychometrics. It might be interesting/helpful to point out that your priors about self-assessment seem more reasonable generally but also put a lot of faith in the test’s validity as a measure of skill. I’m relying on intuition here, but it seems a little problematic that the actual score and the predicted score are both bound to the same measurement scheme. Given that constraint on some level we’re not really talking about an external construct of skill, just test performance and whether people estimate it well. Which is different from estimating their skill well. Maybe someone with more actual skill can elaborate or correct haha.