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This is absurd. No, we definitely wouldn't. Most people wouldn't notice if TSMC disappeared. In a couple years they might go, hey, why isn't my iPhone 42 any

This is absurd. No, we definitely wouldn't. Most people wouldn't notice if TSMC disappeared. In a couple years they might go, hey, why isn't my iPhone 42 any faster than my iPhone 35. But most devices and datacenters would keep running for literally years. Occasionally there would be a disaster that is hard to recover from due to missing supplier inventory. The average warranty on such devices is like 3 years, and many can perform long beyond that. This should be compared with critical commodities like oil. The oil produced yesterday will not last anywhere close to 3 years. Mass starvation would happen within weeks if the oil supply was cut off. Not to mention a lot of critical technology doesn't need <10nm chips, and can use less advanced chips manufactured outside of TSMC.

AdamH12113 5y ago
TSMC makes a lot more than iPhone CPUs. A lot more. And they do a lot more than cutting-edge process nodes -- they have active 180nm fabs. Microcontrollers, ADCs, DACs, ASICs... almost anything you can buy that contains electronics can have ICs manufactured by TSMC. Now think about all the non-consumer equipment with embedded electronics -- trucks, trains, container ships, industrial equipment, medical equipment. Suddenly there are no spare parts available. It takes months to redesign and re-manufacture new electronics, and the supply of non-TSMC components will be unpredictable as everyone rushes to change all at once. On top of that, other foundries in Taiwan (like UMC) would go down, we'd be cut off from all the fabs in China, and if the war expands China might target fabs in South Korea and Japan. It wouldn't be mass starvation in weeks, but it might only be a few steps removed from that.
- pphysch 5y ago
  Yes, TSMC is a very important corporation. No, their (improbable) destruction would not cause an "unimaginable" global economic catastrophe as the previous commentator implied.
vimy 5y ago
Why do you think most people wouldn't notice? Computer and phone prices would probably double or triple. Think gpu shortage but with everything. Since the world would have to fall back to older fabs we'll probably go back 10 years or more in time. A lot of current software is not optimized for such old tech or would be impossible to run. Can't run ML algorithms on an iPhone 6 cpu. Apple probably wouldn't be able to sell phones or computers for a year or two. Would have to redesign everything for older fabs. Is an M1 cpu even possible on say 30nm? Apple has enough money to probably survive two years without income but a lot of companies would just go bankrupt. Can't sell anything if you lost access to the factories.

AdamH12113 5y ago

TSMC makes a lot more than iPhone CPUs. A lot more. And they do a lot more than cutting-edge process nodes -- they have active 180nm fabs. Microcontrollers, ADCs, DACs, ASICs... almost anything you can buy that contains electronics can have ICs manufactured by TSMC. Now think about all the non-consumer equipment with embedded electronics -- trucks, trains, container ships, industrial equipment, medical equipment. Suddenly there are no spare parts available. It takes months to redesign and re-manufacture new electronics, and the supply of non-TSMC components will be unpredictable as everyone rushes to change all at once. On top of that, other foundries in Taiwan (like UMC) would go down, we'd be cut off from all the fabs in China, and if the war expands China might target fabs in South Korea and Japan. It wouldn't be mass starvation in weeks, but it might only be a few steps removed from that.

pphysch 5y ago
Yes, TSMC is a very important corporation. No, their (improbable) destruction would not cause an "unimaginable" global economic catastrophe as the previous commentator implied.

vimy 5y ago

Why do you think most people wouldn't notice? Computer and phone prices would probably double or triple. Think gpu shortage but with everything. Since the world would have to fall back to older fabs we'll probably go back 10 years or more in time. A lot of current software is not optimized for such old tech or would be impossible to run. Can't run ML algorithms on an iPhone 6 cpu. Apple probably wouldn't be able to sell phones or computers for a year or two. Would have to redesign everything for older fabs. Is an M1 cpu even possible on say 30nm? Apple has enough money to probably survive two years without income but a lot of companies would just go bankrupt. Can't sell anything if you lost access to the factories.