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> China would be the aggressor. Russia is currently the aggressor and Ukraine has far more Western support than Taiwan could reasonably expect. Still no Wester

by dahdum 5y ago

> China would be the aggressor. Russia is currently the aggressor and Ukraine has far more Western support than Taiwan could reasonably expect. Still no Western countries are "closing the skies" or attacking Russian military assets. China is a far stronger opponent than Russia, so I don't see why that would change. The US would be going it comparatively alone against China in a Taiwan conflict. I believe the best way to protect them is helping them arm themselves to the teeth such that China sees only a brutally pyrrhic victory as a possibility.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> US would be going it comparatively alone against China in a Taiwan conflict AUKUS and the Quad are explicitly aimed at changing this.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> China is a far stronger opponent than Russia, so I don’t see why that would change. China is a weaker strategic threat despite being a stronger local conventional threat. That would seem to me to make outside direct intervention more likely (though not necessarily more likely than not.) > The US would be going it comparatively alone against China in a Taiwan conflict There is nothing as centralized as NATO or the EU in the region, but there are numerous US bilateral and a few small multilateral security arrangements, and China is one of the main things motivating those arrangements.
- dahdum 5y ago
  Why would China be a weaker strategic threat than Russia? They have 10 times the population and a massive industrial and technological base. Fewer nuclear weapons but more than enough to trigger the apocalypse. Much stronger trade relations, economic diversification, and growth. Kendall, Air Force Secretary, said “When you look at it objectively, China is a much greater strategic threat than Russia is”.[1] 1. https://spacenews.com/air-force-secretary-were-worried-about-russia-but-china-is-a-bigger-strategic-threat/ https://spacenews.com/air-force-secretary-were-worried-about...
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    Yeah, that was sloppy. What I meant specifically is that, while China has a strategic nuclear arsenal, it is insufficient to really count as a MAD threat, so it lacks Russia’s trump card against intervention.

by dahdum 5y ago

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> US would be going it comparatively alone against China in a Taiwan conflict AUKUS and the Quad are explicitly aimed at changing this.

dragonwriter 5y ago

> China is a far stronger opponent than Russia, so I don’t see why that would change. China is a weaker strategic threat despite being a stronger local conventional threat. That would seem to me to make outside direct intervention more likely (though not necessarily more likely than not.) > The US would be going it comparatively alone against China in a Taiwan conflict There is nothing as centralized as NATO or the EU in the region, but there are numerous US bilateral and a few small multilateral security arrangements, and China is one of the main things motivating those arrangements.

dahdum 5y ago
Why would China be a weaker strategic threat than Russia? They have 10 times the population and a massive industrial and technological base. Fewer nuclear weapons but more than enough to trigger the apocalypse. Much stronger trade relations, economic diversification, and growth. Kendall, Air Force Secretary, said “When you look at it objectively, China is a much greater strategic threat than Russia is”.[1] 1. https://spacenews.com/air-force-secretary-were-worried-about-russia-but-china-is-a-bigger-strategic-threat/ https://spacenews.com/air-force-secretary-were-worried-about...
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  Yeah, that was sloppy. What I meant specifically is that, while China has a strategic nuclear arsenal, it is insufficient to really count as a MAD threat, so it lacks Russia’s trump card against intervention.