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The problem is TSMC points a gun back at us. Look at the Ukraine playbook: "ok Russia go ahead and try to invade, we'll turn it into a bloodbath for you while w
by themgt 5y ago
The problem is TSMC points a gun back at us. Look at the Ukraine playbook: "ok Russia go ahead and try to invade, we'll turn it into a bloodbath for you while we cut you off from as much of the global economy as possible"
The threat to wreck China's economy if they invade becomes a lot less credible when we'll be cutting the legs of the entire global economy in the bargain. It becomes more of a mutual suicide pact and gives China reason to think we'd cut a deal if it came down to it.
- pphysch 5y agoAgain, this narrative doesn't align with the facts. Suppose TSMC never existed. USA would still be totally economically dependent on China in 2022. If USA declares war on China, USA will have an acute economic crisis within weeks due to half a trillion $ in missing imports. This has nothing to do with chips from TSMC. The geopolitical leverage of TSMC is vastly overstated by people who get their geopolitics from geopolitical non-experts like Zeihan and Stratechery.