4 ms·

I doubt this. you'd need to continue having a thriving economy, not only that for an aircraft carrier group to be effective you'd need quality fighter jets that

I doubt this. you'd need to continue having a thriving economy, not only that for an aircraft carrier group to be effective you'd need quality fighter jets that can take off with equal or more payload than the US (which does not use a ski ramp for this reason) and compete with it's 5th or 6th generation planes. In addition you would need adequate defense fleet, especially submarines quiet enough and capable of detecting threats and countermeasures. Even the Taiwanese F-16V will be able to obtain air superiority in the present, 10 years is awfully short for it to master jet engine manufacturing. In 10 years it would be lucky if CCP survives internal issues due to a dwindling economy and inability to service and maintain much of its core infrastructure rather than an external one. I could definitely see Xi taking some of the islets close to its coast line but doing so would give the US justification to station its airbase permanently and start a Russian style sanction.

iooi 4y ago
You're assuming that the US would go to war with China over Taiwan. That's not a given -- by a long shot. > and start a Russian style sanction Unlike the Russian sanctions, a broad sanction on the Chinese economy would deeply impact the US economy. It's not a viable strategy.
- rdtwo 4y ago
  Yeah Russia sanctions mostly just affect Europe
- tomatowurst 4y ago
  > US would go to war with China over Taiwan They've repeatedly signaled and backed this up with a real aircraft carrier that sails between the straits. They aren't doing this just for show. The ball is in CCP's court, if they venture too far past their coastline they are going to face USN + JSDF. Again, Taiwan is NOT ukraine. It's semiconductor supply is critical to national security and the economy. US also signaled they would hit China with sanctions and I don't think it's a bluff. China needs US more than US needs it.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    > real aircraft carrier USN hasn't had the balls to sail carriers through the strait in 20+ years even under Mike Pompeo at the nadir of US/PRC relations since Nixon. Clinton sent 2 during last TW strait crisis for shits and giggles. Strait transits are down to DDGs and coast guard vessels now. PRC doesn't even need Navy to venture outside the first island chain to destroy East Asia semi, or conduct massive crippling cyber warefare on CONUS. Reality is US has very limited options protecting East Asia interests and US is now existentially vulnerable in multiple domains that can't be solved with biggest military budget and 20 aircraft carriers. PRC is moving to sanction proof economy and decoupling anyway, eating sanctions for taking back TW is built into the equation.
    - LAC-Tech 4y ago
      Is it really "balls" to not sail an aircraft carrier? Last time it happened was during the Taiwan straight crisis where the PRC fired missiles - which a defector in the PRC told Taiwan had no warheads - deliberately near Taiwanese cities. Why respond with a crisis level military show of force when - thankfully - there's no crisis?
      - dirtyid 4y ago
        PRC also unofficially communicated missiles drama weeks ahead to TW, so there wasn't any "crisis" either, but US sent 2 carriers as show of force because it could, knowing PRC had no capabilities to counter. Force balance is different now, and for all the US hyping about increased PLAF flights into TW ADIZ or clipping median line last year, basically another crisis brewing, USN still only sent DDGs for strait transits because they can no longer risk using CSG as show of force.
        LAC-Tech 4y ago
        None of these issues constitute a crisis nearly as much as '96 - an alternate interpretation is that the PRC is still terrified of a CSG appearing in the strait so they deliberately do not cross US red lines, even when much closer US/Taiwan relations cross theirs.

iooi 4y ago

You're assuming that the US would go to war with China over Taiwan. That's not a given -- by a long shot. > and start a Russian style sanction Unlike the Russian sanctions, a broad sanction on the Chinese economy would deeply impact the US economy. It's not a viable strategy.

rdtwo 4y ago
Yeah Russia sanctions mostly just affect Europe
tomatowurst 4y ago
> US would go to war with China over Taiwan They've repeatedly signaled and backed this up with a real aircraft carrier that sails between the straits. They aren't doing this just for show. The ball is in CCP's court, if they venture too far past their coastline they are going to face USN + JSDF. Again, Taiwan is NOT ukraine. It's semiconductor supply is critical to national security and the economy. US also signaled they would hit China with sanctions and I don't think it's a bluff. China needs US more than US needs it.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  > real aircraft carrier USN hasn't had the balls to sail carriers through the strait in 20+ years even under Mike Pompeo at the nadir of US/PRC relations since Nixon. Clinton sent 2 during last TW strait crisis for shits and giggles. Strait transits are down to DDGs and coast guard vessels now. PRC doesn't even need Navy to venture outside the first island chain to destroy East Asia semi, or conduct massive crippling cyber warefare on CONUS. Reality is US has very limited options protecting East Asia interests and US is now existentially vulnerable in multiple domains that can't be solved with biggest military budget and 20 aircraft carriers. PRC is moving to sanction proof economy and decoupling anyway, eating sanctions for taking back TW is built into the equation.
  - LAC-Tech 4y ago
    Is it really "balls" to not sail an aircraft carrier? Last time it happened was during the Taiwan straight crisis where the PRC fired missiles - which a defector in the PRC told Taiwan had no warheads - deliberately near Taiwanese cities. Why respond with a crisis level military show of force when - thankfully - there's no crisis?
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      PRC also unofficially communicated missiles drama weeks ahead to TW, so there wasn't any "crisis" either, but US sent 2 carriers as show of force because it could, knowing PRC had no capabilities to counter. Force balance is different now, and for all the US hyping about increased PLAF flights into TW ADIZ or clipping median line last year, basically another crisis brewing, USN still only sent DDGs for strait transits because they can no longer risk using CSG as show of force.
      - LAC-Tech 4y ago
        None of these issues constitute a crisis nearly as much as '96 - an alternate interpretation is that the PRC is still terrified of a CSG appearing in the strait so they deliberately do not cross US red lines, even when much closer US/Taiwan relations cross theirs.