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That's because China can launch anti-ship missiles from any Chinese highway to threaten US Carriers. In contrast, the weapon-platforms of Taiwan / US Navy are

That's because China can launch anti-ship missiles from any Chinese highway to threaten US Carriers. In contrast, the weapon-platforms of Taiwan / US Navy are simply more constrained. Sure, US Destroyers / Cruisers are good missile platforms and US Aircraft Carriers / F35 fighters are also good delivery mechanisms for anti-ship missiles... But China has the advantage of land-based missiles, land-based air force, AND sea-based naval forces to triple-team up against the US Navy. ------- Chinese Carriers hanging around the Straight of Taiwan and hugging their coastline (under protective cover of Chinese missile-forces / Chinese air-forces) is the expectation. We're not concerned about Chinese Carriers trying to say, attack Hawaii (which would be the opposite situation: US Air Force supporting US Navy in defense). The near-term threat is the gross geographical advantages of the China-Taiwan fight. There's a mild expectation that if a Chinese / Taiwan fight were to occur, US Marines might be forced to make landings in the Chinese mainland to destroy Chinese land-based missile forces and even the odds.

jacobolus 5y ago
How useful are anti-ship missiles in Ishigaki Island (Japan), Batanes (Philippines), etc.? If Taiwan is loaded with anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles, naval mines, loitering munitions, artillery, modern fighter jets, etc., any Chinese invasion is at the very least going to come at very steep cost in life/military hardware. And then the economic costs (to everyone in the world) are going to be extreme.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > How useful are anti-ship missiles in Ishigaki Island (Japan), Batanes (Philippines), etc.? Better than nothing, but the Chinese mainland has literal highways and railroads to deliver more-and-more missiles. When all else is equal, the winner is decided by logistics. Who can "deliver" more missiles to a location first? I'm willing to bet that Chinese highways and Chinese railroads have superior logistics / delivery than Ishigaki Island or the Batanes. That is: the winner will be decided by "number of missile deliveries to the Strait of Taiwan". (A lot of people get caught up in thinking about the "last mile" of delivery: F35 jets or Destroyers or MLRS systems. But the "first mile" of railroads / highways is just as important, and leans severely to a Chinese advantage) > If Taiwan is loaded with anti-ship missiles, loitering munitions, artillery, modern fighter jets, etc., any Chinese invasion is at the very least going to come at very steep cost in life/military hardware. Putin just proved to the world that "Just because its a bad idea" doesn't mean it won't stop the autocratic dictator from doing something stupid. China attacking the world-capital of semiconductor manufacturing would piss off the world for sure. But "pissing off the world" doesn't seem to enter into the calculus of these leaders. EDIT: I'm also willing to bet that Xi Jinping cares about Chinese soldier's life only a _little_ bit more than Putin cares about Russian soldier lives.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > When all else is equal, the winner is decided by logistics Which is why it’s almost public policy that the opening salvos of this war would involve raining down missile fire on those logistical chains.
  - omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
    > When all else is equal, the winner is decided by logistics. Who can "deliver" more missiles to a location first? I'm willing to bet that Chinese highways and Chinese railroads have superior logistics / delivery than Ishigaki Island or the Batanes. That's an interesting point. One on hand, rail/highways are superior to anything ocean-going for transport, and cargo ships are easily taken out and would need extremely effective escorts. On the other hand, rail/highways are much harder to protect because of their length. If cargo ships could still reach Taiwan with escorts, I wonder if Taiwan could have enough supplies to deny China access to their rail/highway systems such that it negated their numerical advantages.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- meowfly 5y ago
  I'm extremely skeptical of this Taiwan invasion scenario I see floated around quite a bit. 1. As you said, and China is aware, a war between Taiwan and China will harm both countries and strengthen the US. 2. The world would react extremely negatively (more so than the Ukraine response) if half the world's semi-conductors supply disappeared. 3. Taiwan has cruise missiles that can reach Shanghai, Wuhan, Shenzhen, etc. Most of China's development is in the East. [1] What I do believe might happen is China will reach the point that they can economically bully Taiwan until Taiwan decides it's best to play ball. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hsiung_Feng_IIE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hsiung_Feng_IIE
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> China has the advantage of land-based missiles, land-based air force, AND sea-based naval forces to triple-team up against the US Navy Point is if China leans into its fleet for fire support (it’s currently not clear if they will do this or rely on land-based or aerial firing platforms), there are anti-ship missile systems Taiwan could be outfitted with to compensate for far cheaper than those ships cost.
gscott 5y ago
I bet every US military platform uses chips from Tawain... if China was to take or even blockade Tawain it would be bad for the us military industrial complex. Not to mention the worldwide recession, job cuts and other problems not being able to put that one last needed chip into products like cars would cause.
dahdum 5y ago
> There's a mild expectation that if a Chinese / Taiwan fight were to occur, US Marines might be forced to make landings in the Chinese mainland to destroy Chinese land-based missile forces and even the odds. That sounds remarkably unlikely and irrational. If China touched the US mainland it would mean immediate full-scale war, the opposite should be assumed.
- potta_coffee 5y ago
  We've had two world wars that in retrospect seem remarkably unlikely and irrational, insane even.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > That sounds remarkably unlikely and irrational. If China touched the US mainland it would mean immediate full-scale war, the opposite should be assumed. Then your assumptions need to be set appropriately. That is: China will have its full set of highways and railroads in-tact to deliver missiles to the US Navy. That will be the US Navy fighting at a severe disadvantage. Furthermore, US Marines will largely be sitting around doing nothing. Having additional troops from a separate branch of the military doing __SOMETHING__ would at least help even the odds. (Marines do have some ships, but the Marines specialized in Sea vs Land situations, not sea vs sea kinds of battles) ------- In any case, the Taiwan situation is a very difficult fight to think about. US Navy will be at a severe disadvantage in almost every concievable scenario, and its difficult to see how other branches (US Army, US Air Force, or US Marines) can help in a significant manner. (Sure, some islands here and there can station some US Air Force, US Army can also station some troops in Taiwan. But is it enough to make a big difference?)
  - dahdum 5y ago
    We have no defense pact with Taiwan, and are not obligated to engage. Our official stance is strategic ambiguity, but Ukraine has showed how unlikely we are to join the fight. We will try to follow much of the same sanctioning, intelligence, and providing arms playbook, but with less international support. Your scenario presumes we are in open conflict with Chinese troops, in which case landing marines is merely an escalation of a war that’s already begun.
potta_coffee 5y ago
This is precisely why USMC infantry training pivoted back toward more traditional (for the Marines) landing tactics in the Pacific, away from desert operations.
topspin 5y ago
> That's because China can launch anti-ship missiles from any Chinese highway to threaten US Carriers. The Chinese need not resort to mere land batteries. The Chinese have a fleet of well over 200 Xian H-6 strategic bombers to launch whatever anti-ship standoff PGM they can mount to the wings or fuselage. And the new H-6N is aerial refueled. A few years from now when these are operationally armed with sufficient quantities of supersonic/hypersonic/flocking/maneuvering/whatever anti-ship missiles China will have absolute control of the sea around Taiwan; foreign war ships, cargo ships and anything else that isn't a submarine will be permitted to remain in the area at China's pleasure. There is a reason that foundries are rapidly being built in the US, Europe, etc.: the shot callers at the top of these semiconductor manufacturers know that one day in the not too distant future Taiwan will be blockaded in China's play to reunify and there is nothing the West can do about it without risking the destruction of capital ships full of propulsion reactors.

jacobolus 5y ago

How useful are anti-ship missiles in Ishigaki Island (Japan), Batanes (Philippines), etc.? If Taiwan is loaded with anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles, naval mines, loitering munitions, artillery, modern fighter jets, etc., any Chinese invasion is at the very least going to come at very steep cost in life/military hardware. And then the economic costs (to everyone in the world) are going to be extreme.

dragontamer 5y ago
> How useful are anti-ship missiles in Ishigaki Island (Japan), Batanes (Philippines), etc.? Better than nothing, but the Chinese mainland has literal highways and railroads to deliver more-and-more missiles. When all else is equal, the winner is decided by logistics. Who can "deliver" more missiles to a location first? I'm willing to bet that Chinese highways and Chinese railroads have superior logistics / delivery than Ishigaki Island or the Batanes. That is: the winner will be decided by "number of missile deliveries to the Strait of Taiwan". (A lot of people get caught up in thinking about the "last mile" of delivery: F35 jets or Destroyers or MLRS systems. But the "first mile" of railroads / highways is just as important, and leans severely to a Chinese advantage) > If Taiwan is loaded with anti-ship missiles, loitering munitions, artillery, modern fighter jets, etc., any Chinese invasion is at the very least going to come at very steep cost in life/military hardware. Putin just proved to the world that "Just because its a bad idea" doesn't mean it won't stop the autocratic dictator from doing something stupid. China attacking the world-capital of semiconductor manufacturing would piss off the world for sure. But "pissing off the world" doesn't seem to enter into the calculus of these leaders. EDIT: I'm also willing to bet that Xi Jinping cares about Chinese soldier's life only a _little_ bit more than Putin cares about Russian soldier lives.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > When all else is equal, the winner is decided by logistics Which is why it’s almost public policy that the opening salvos of this war would involve raining down missile fire on those logistical chains.
- omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
  > When all else is equal, the winner is decided by logistics. Who can "deliver" more missiles to a location first? I'm willing to bet that Chinese highways and Chinese railroads have superior logistics / delivery than Ishigaki Island or the Batanes. That's an interesting point. One on hand, rail/highways are superior to anything ocean-going for transport, and cargo ships are easily taken out and would need extremely effective escorts. On the other hand, rail/highways are much harder to protect because of their length. If cargo ships could still reach Taiwan with escorts, I wonder if Taiwan could have enough supplies to deny China access to their rail/highway systems such that it negated their numerical advantages.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
meowfly 5y ago
I'm extremely skeptical of this Taiwan invasion scenario I see floated around quite a bit. 1. As you said, and China is aware, a war between Taiwan and China will harm both countries and strengthen the US. 2. The world would react extremely negatively (more so than the Ukraine response) if half the world's semi-conductors supply disappeared. 3. Taiwan has cruise missiles that can reach Shanghai, Wuhan, Shenzhen, etc. Most of China's development is in the East. [1] What I do believe might happen is China will reach the point that they can economically bully Taiwan until Taiwan decides it's best to play ball. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hsiung_Feng_IIE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hsiung_Feng_IIE

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> China has the advantage of land-based missiles, land-based air force, AND sea-based naval forces to triple-team up against the US Navy Point is if China leans into its fleet for fire support (it’s currently not clear if they will do this or rely on land-based or aerial firing platforms), there are anti-ship missile systems Taiwan could be outfitted with to compensate for far cheaper than those ships cost.

gscott 5y ago

I bet every US military platform uses chips from Tawain... if China was to take or even blockade Tawain it would be bad for the us military industrial complex. Not to mention the worldwide recession, job cuts and other problems not being able to put that one last needed chip into products like cars would cause.

dahdum 5y ago

> There's a mild expectation that if a Chinese / Taiwan fight were to occur, US Marines might be forced to make landings in the Chinese mainland to destroy Chinese land-based missile forces and even the odds. That sounds remarkably unlikely and irrational. If China touched the US mainland it would mean immediate full-scale war, the opposite should be assumed.

potta_coffee 5y ago
We've had two world wars that in retrospect seem remarkably unlikely and irrational, insane even.
dragontamer 5y ago
> That sounds remarkably unlikely and irrational. If China touched the US mainland it would mean immediate full-scale war, the opposite should be assumed. Then your assumptions need to be set appropriately. That is: China will have its full set of highways and railroads in-tact to deliver missiles to the US Navy. That will be the US Navy fighting at a severe disadvantage. Furthermore, US Marines will largely be sitting around doing nothing. Having additional troops from a separate branch of the military doing __SOMETHING__ would at least help even the odds. (Marines do have some ships, but the Marines specialized in Sea vs Land situations, not sea vs sea kinds of battles) ------- In any case, the Taiwan situation is a very difficult fight to think about. US Navy will be at a severe disadvantage in almost every concievable scenario, and its difficult to see how other branches (US Army, US Air Force, or US Marines) can help in a significant manner. (Sure, some islands here and there can station some US Air Force, US Army can also station some troops in Taiwan. But is it enough to make a big difference?)
- dahdum 5y ago
  We have no defense pact with Taiwan, and are not obligated to engage. Our official stance is strategic ambiguity, but Ukraine has showed how unlikely we are to join the fight. We will try to follow much of the same sanctioning, intelligence, and providing arms playbook, but with less international support. Your scenario presumes we are in open conflict with Chinese troops, in which case landing marines is merely an escalation of a war that’s already begun.

potta_coffee 5y ago

This is precisely why USMC infantry training pivoted back toward more traditional (for the Marines) landing tactics in the Pacific, away from desert operations.

topspin 5y ago

> That's because China can launch anti-ship missiles from any Chinese highway to threaten US Carriers. The Chinese need not resort to mere land batteries. The Chinese have a fleet of well over 200 Xian H-6 strategic bombers to launch whatever anti-ship standoff PGM they can mount to the wings or fuselage. And the new H-6N is aerial refueled. A few years from now when these are operationally armed with sufficient quantities of supersonic/hypersonic/flocking/maneuvering/whatever anti-ship missiles China will have absolute control of the sea around Taiwan; foreign war ships, cargo ships and anything else that isn't a submarine will be permitted to remain in the area at China's pleasure. There is a reason that foundries are rapidly being built in the US, Europe, etc.: the shot callers at the top of these semiconductor manufacturers know that one day in the not too distant future Taiwan will be blockaded in China's play to reunify and there is nothing the West can do about it without risking the destruction of capital ships full of propulsion reactors.