6 ms·

Vague geopolitical considerations are very secondary and policy dependent compared to the real and abrupt chaos which will ensue if TSMC is taken out.

jaywalk 4y ago
This is exactly correct. If China took out TSMC, we would have an unimaginable global catastrophe on our hands that would make Covid look like nothing. There are far too many eggs in that basket.
- hackernewds 4y ago
  This seems like an exaggeration. What are the resulting catastrophe?
  - samus 4y ago
    The semiconductor industry would be set back a few decades because the main production facilities for the current node and many previous nodes would be gone. It's not just the equipment, but also the institutional knowledge about how to operate it best.
  - WillPostForFood 4y ago
    If China invaded Taiwan, and the world response was something like the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (economic isolation), it would mean losing 500 billion dollars of imported products, and an uncountable loss of products that are dependent of that 500 billion. Look at what a small kink in chip supply is doing to car pricing and supply. Imagine instead of a kink in the supply chain, the supply goes to zero for several years. Now imagine that affecting thousands of products that are either wholly manufactured in China and Taiwan, or dependent on components made in China and Taiwan.
  - jaywalk 4y ago
    The number of chips within a five foot radius of you at this very moment that were manufactured by TSMC could easily be in the double digits. So imagine that all of the devices containing those chips are no longer able to be produced because nobody else can make the necessary chips.
- samus 4y ago
  This won't happen because China would also take a hit. TSMC is safe as long as China doesn't have a cutting-edge semiconductor industry that can replace the lost output from the latest nodes.
- pphysch 4y ago
  This is absurd. No, we definitely wouldn't. Most people wouldn't notice if TSMC disappeared. In a couple years they might go, hey, why isn't my iPhone 42 any faster than my iPhone 35. But most devices and datacenters would keep running for literally years. Occasionally there would be a disaster that is hard to recover from due to missing supplier inventory. The average warranty on such devices is like 3 years, and many can perform long beyond that. This should be compared with critical commodities like oil. The oil produced yesterday will not last anywhere close to 3 years. Mass starvation would happen within weeks if the oil supply was cut off. Not to mention a lot of critical technology doesn't need <10nm chips, and can use less advanced chips manufactured outside of TSMC.
  - AdamH12113 4y ago
    TSMC makes a lot more than iPhone CPUs. A lot more. And they do a lot more than cutting-edge process nodes -- they have active 180nm fabs. Microcontrollers, ADCs, DACs, ASICs... almost anything you can buy that contains electronics can have ICs manufactured by TSMC. Now think about all the non-consumer equipment with embedded electronics -- trucks, trains, container ships, industrial equipment, medical equipment. Suddenly there are no spare parts available. It takes months to redesign and re-manufacture new electronics, and the supply of non-TSMC components will be unpredictable as everyone rushes to change all at once. On top of that, other foundries in Taiwan (like UMC) would go down, we'd be cut off from all the fabs in China, and if the war expands China might target fabs in South Korea and Japan. It wouldn't be mass starvation in weeks, but it might only be a few steps removed from that.
    - pphysch 4y ago
      Yes, TSMC is a very important corporation. No, their (improbable) destruction would not cause an "unimaginable" global economic catastrophe as the previous commentator implied.
  - vimy 4y ago
    Why do you think most people wouldn't notice? Computer and phone prices would probably double or triple. Think gpu shortage but with everything. Since the world would have to fall back to older fabs we'll probably go back 10 years or more in time. A lot of current software is not optimized for such old tech or would be impossible to run. Can't run ML algorithms on an iPhone 6 cpu. Apple probably wouldn't be able to sell phones or computers for a year or two. Would have to redesign everything for older fabs. Is an M1 cpu even possible on say 30nm? Apple has enough money to probably survive two years without income but a lot of companies would just go bankrupt. Can't sell anything if you lost access to the factories.
samus 4y ago
A long-term geopolitical goal of the PRC is to challenge the hegemony of the US blue-water navy over the oceans, or at least of the immediate surroundings of East Asia. Having US-friendly regimes on Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan would make it difficult for the Chinese Navy to operate outside of that island chain in a conflict.
pavon 4y ago
On the other hand, if China assumes control of Taiwan and TSMC with it, that need not have any impact on the rest of the world. Rather, it would provide a strong financial incentive not to push back as hard on China as we have on Russia. In other words, part of the desire to onshore chip fabrication (and other manufacturing) is in part so we can sanction China harder if need be. Dependence on TSMC weakens our resolve to defend Taiwan for political reasons, it doesn't strengthen it.
- etiam 4y ago
  "Taiwan should destroy TSMC if invaded, suggests US military paper" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31012442 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31012442
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
pphysch 4y ago
On the contrary, techbros not getting their new overpowered MacBook or gamer rig or drone is very secondary to hard security concerns.

jaywalk 4y ago

This is exactly correct. If China took out TSMC, we would have an unimaginable global catastrophe on our hands that would make Covid look like nothing. There are far too many eggs in that basket.

hackernewds 4y ago
This seems like an exaggeration. What are the resulting catastrophe?
- samus 4y ago
  The semiconductor industry would be set back a few decades because the main production facilities for the current node and many previous nodes would be gone. It's not just the equipment, but also the institutional knowledge about how to operate it best.
- WillPostForFood 4y ago
  If China invaded Taiwan, and the world response was something like the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (economic isolation), it would mean losing 500 billion dollars of imported products, and an uncountable loss of products that are dependent of that 500 billion. Look at what a small kink in chip supply is doing to car pricing and supply. Imagine instead of a kink in the supply chain, the supply goes to zero for several years. Now imagine that affecting thousands of products that are either wholly manufactured in China and Taiwan, or dependent on components made in China and Taiwan.
- jaywalk 4y ago
  The number of chips within a five foot radius of you at this very moment that were manufactured by TSMC could easily be in the double digits. So imagine that all of the devices containing those chips are no longer able to be produced because nobody else can make the necessary chips.
samus 4y ago
This won't happen because China would also take a hit. TSMC is safe as long as China doesn't have a cutting-edge semiconductor industry that can replace the lost output from the latest nodes.
pphysch 4y ago
This is absurd. No, we definitely wouldn't. Most people wouldn't notice if TSMC disappeared. In a couple years they might go, hey, why isn't my iPhone 42 any faster than my iPhone 35. But most devices and datacenters would keep running for literally years. Occasionally there would be a disaster that is hard to recover from due to missing supplier inventory. The average warranty on such devices is like 3 years, and many can perform long beyond that. This should be compared with critical commodities like oil. The oil produced yesterday will not last anywhere close to 3 years. Mass starvation would happen within weeks if the oil supply was cut off. Not to mention a lot of critical technology doesn't need <10nm chips, and can use less advanced chips manufactured outside of TSMC.
- AdamH12113 4y ago
  TSMC makes a lot more than iPhone CPUs. A lot more. And they do a lot more than cutting-edge process nodes -- they have active 180nm fabs. Microcontrollers, ADCs, DACs, ASICs... almost anything you can buy that contains electronics can have ICs manufactured by TSMC. Now think about all the non-consumer equipment with embedded electronics -- trucks, trains, container ships, industrial equipment, medical equipment. Suddenly there are no spare parts available. It takes months to redesign and re-manufacture new electronics, and the supply of non-TSMC components will be unpredictable as everyone rushes to change all at once. On top of that, other foundries in Taiwan (like UMC) would go down, we'd be cut off from all the fabs in China, and if the war expands China might target fabs in South Korea and Japan. It wouldn't be mass starvation in weeks, but it might only be a few steps removed from that.
  - pphysch 4y ago
    Yes, TSMC is a very important corporation. No, their (improbable) destruction would not cause an "unimaginable" global economic catastrophe as the previous commentator implied.
- vimy 4y ago
  Why do you think most people wouldn't notice? Computer and phone prices would probably double or triple. Think gpu shortage but with everything. Since the world would have to fall back to older fabs we'll probably go back 10 years or more in time. A lot of current software is not optimized for such old tech or would be impossible to run. Can't run ML algorithms on an iPhone 6 cpu. Apple probably wouldn't be able to sell phones or computers for a year or two. Would have to redesign everything for older fabs. Is an M1 cpu even possible on say 30nm? Apple has enough money to probably survive two years without income but a lot of companies would just go bankrupt. Can't sell anything if you lost access to the factories.

samus 4y ago

A long-term geopolitical goal of the PRC is to challenge the hegemony of the US blue-water navy over the oceans, or at least of the immediate surroundings of East Asia. Having US-friendly regimes on Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan would make it difficult for the Chinese Navy to operate outside of that island chain in a conflict.

pavon 4y ago

On the other hand, if China assumes control of Taiwan and TSMC with it, that need not have any impact on the rest of the world. Rather, it would provide a strong financial incentive not to push back as hard on China as we have on Russia. In other words, part of the desire to onshore chip fabrication (and other manufacturing) is in part so we can sanction China harder if need be. Dependence on TSMC weakens our resolve to defend Taiwan for political reasons, it doesn't strengthen it.

etiam 4y ago
"Taiwan should destroy TSMC if invaded, suggests US military paper" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31012442 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31012442

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

pphysch 4y ago

On the contrary, techbros not getting their new overpowered MacBook or gamer rig or drone is very secondary to hard security concerns.