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> It’s been accepted that as long as troops from one of the side are not directly shooting at uniformed troops from the other side During the Korean and Vietna

> It’s been accepted that as long as troops from one of the side are not directly shooting at uniformed troops from the other side During the Korean and Vietnam Wars, Soviet pilots engaged in dogfights with Americans, which makes the amount of handwringing over just sending weaponry being a escalation laughable.

lazide 4y ago
Good point on the pilots! Also MacArthur’s pursuit of the North Koreans across the 38th parallel brought China directly into the war and precipitated a much, much larger conflict, and cost a great many American and UN Allie’s lives. It got him (rightly, IMO) fired. But that was too late. [https://www.marshallfoundation.org/articles-and-features/marshall-macarthur-38th-parallel/ https://www.marshallfoundation.org/articles-and-features/mar...] If everyone agrees that shooting at each other’s pilots isn’t a ‘direct conflict’, then it isn’t. The US didn’t want to officially care to that level that Chinese jets (or troops) were killing US troops, because the US could waltz back home and Korea would be the one to take the hit. At least one of the parties could accept a failure, somewhat. The stakes for Russia here (and especially for Putin), like when MacArthur crossed the 38th, are much, much higher for them. A well armed, actively hostile (well earned hostility or not), and aligned with the west Ukraine is right on their doorstep, with no meaningful geographic barriers. Historically a scary situation for Russia. And Europe, which has a lot (depending on if we’re counting countries or $$) of influence over NATO and is nuclear armed themselves, is also existentially threatened by Russia doing what they are doing. Russia has a recent and very painful history with many of those countries. And even if the WW2 push west from Russia was precipitated by Nazi Germany, nothing they did afterwards left a warm and fuzzy feeling. The hand wringing is because after a long period of peace that people became accustomed too, this is a real and present danger to a lot of folks livelihoods and safety even if nothing goes nuclear. And this turns up the dial on stress in a way that no one can look at it and really be sure the other side wouldn’t go nuclear over the next step or two. Would he be super stupid and self destructive? Yes. But when in an information bubble and when threatened by existential threats is exactly when folks are most likely to do stupid and self destructive things. Would you be willing to bet there is no (crazier) MacArthur, potentially one that has access to a nuke or dirty bomb or the like, in the power structure somewhere there, or even in Ukraine if you really looked? Madmen need to be checked. Getting nuked is also terrible. Starting WW3? Just yikes.

lazide 4y ago

Good point on the pilots! Also MacArthur’s pursuit of the North Koreans across the 38th parallel brought China directly into the war and precipitated a much, much larger conflict, and cost a great many American and UN Allie’s lives. It got him (rightly, IMO) fired. But that was too late. [https://www.marshallfoundation.org/articles-and-features/marshall-macarthur-38th-parallel/ https://www.marshallfoundation.org/articles-and-features/mar...] If everyone agrees that shooting at each other’s pilots isn’t a ‘direct conflict’, then it isn’t. The US didn’t want to officially care to that level that Chinese jets (or troops) were killing US troops, because the US could waltz back home and Korea would be the one to take the hit. At least one of the parties could accept a failure, somewhat. The stakes for Russia here (and especially for Putin), like when MacArthur crossed the 38th, are much, much higher for them. A well armed, actively hostile (well earned hostility or not), and aligned with the west Ukraine is right on their doorstep, with no meaningful geographic barriers. Historically a scary situation for Russia. And Europe, which has a lot (depending on if we’re counting countries or $$) of influence over NATO and is nuclear armed themselves, is also existentially threatened by Russia doing what they are doing. Russia has a recent and very painful history with many of those countries. And even if the WW2 push west from Russia was precipitated by Nazi Germany, nothing they did afterwards left a warm and fuzzy feeling. The hand wringing is because after a long period of peace that people became accustomed too, this is a real and present danger to a lot of folks livelihoods and safety even if nothing goes nuclear. And this turns up the dial on stress in a way that no one can look at it and really be sure the other side wouldn’t go nuclear over the next step or two. Would he be super stupid and self destructive? Yes. But when in an information bubble and when threatened by existential threats is exactly when folks are most likely to do stupid and self destructive things. Would you be willing to bet there is no (crazier) MacArthur, potentially one that has access to a nuke or dirty bomb or the like, in the power structure somewhere there, or even in Ukraine if you really looked? Madmen need to be checked. Getting nuked is also terrible. Starting WW3? Just yikes.