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The netflix story is beginning to turn, and not just because of Elon or password sharing crackdowns. Anyone can see that the other players have caught up, and

The netflix story is beginning to turn, and not just because of Elon or password sharing crackdowns. Anyone can see that the other players have caught up, and their brand does not seem to have that pull anymore, especially when paired against the likes of Disney, Marvel, DC, HBO, etc. Their content has a lot more competition, and the pandemic has altered the dynamics of streaming. I guess most households have at least a couple of streaming subscriptions if not more, and dropping off NF is easier, especially against rising prices and restrictions on sharing. Now, they have to fight head on with the big studios who have a whole ecosystem with them. I frankly wonder why anyone would invest in NF at this juncture. I would expect subscriber growth to taper off, and their pricing flexibility is limited due to competition. Also, price sensitivity for streaming seems to be particularly high, perhaps amplified by social media. Atleast with the cable TV, you get hundreds of channels. Now, the fatigue of selecting content is very real. Also, the algorithms are crap on NF.

tinus_hn 5y ago
Is it really surprising that a service that gained tons of subscribers due to lockdowns loses a lot of them again once the lockdowns end?
- Mindwipe 5y ago
  They didn't even really lose them, Netflix gained subscribers if you exclude Russia.
  - gdulli 5y ago
    Not accounting for Russia they'd still have been 2 million subscribers short of the forecast of 2.5 million subscribers. And they're forecasting a loss of 2 million more in Q2, which makes the loss of 200k in Q1 look small.
mattbrewsbytes 5y ago
Netflix's core competency was the best distribution (DVD by mail then streaming) and not the best content. Their competitors can beat them on content because that's their competency, distribution is commoditized at this point. This is an example where they were ahead of the industry with distribution and now that their competitors have invested in infrastructure/distribution, supply chain (movie/show production takes time), marketing, and have competing products the competition is fierce when your price is the highest. Now replace Netflix with Tesla and this could be the same case in the automobile market in a 3-5 year span. Market leader because they lead the industry in one element but once that tech (batteries/EV/charging network) is commoditized, the market leader could suffer.
- brianwawok 4y ago
  Here’s the difference I think between the Netflix and Tesla story. Netflix was in a new market. No one had serious streaming. They had content, but didn’t use the internet to sell it. They borrowed content and did the stream thing. The “moat” was “could NBC etc figure out how to put pictures on the internet”. The answer is apparently yes, and then they yanked their content back. Now Netflix has to reproduce Disney / marvel / all the bug content makers to compete. Tesla is much more an established market. Yes battery car is new. But ford etc have huge huge legacy commitments. A culture of outsourcing. Software as a frill not a core feature. A legacy method of distribution (dealers). Ford can’t just drop their dealers network.ford can’t just fire their pension obligations. They are very much “stuck” in their direction. If Tesla is topped, I very much expect it to come form a rival startup and not legacy auto. 12 years in and I see no signs the legacy automakers are doing the right things. Still no OTA updates with regular frequency. You still have to argue with dealer over price and deal with scummery.
  - jodleif 4y ago
    I think Tesla is extremely overvalued, very curious to see how it plays out
    - landa 4y ago
      If you think it's overvalued then you should be short the stock. We've seen how that played out for other shorts.
      - belter 4y ago
        And the market will stay irrational longer that somebody can stay solvent...
        landa 4y ago
        Another way to say that you don't want to put your money where your mouth is.
dylan-m 4y ago
Every time Netflix raises their price, it hits the news, and people think "hmm, maybe I should cancel Netflix." This is antithetical to their success so far, which has been a cheap enough subscription that people stay subscribed because it's easier than unsubscribing when they aren't using it. It is insane to me. Absolutely insane. That they have been raising prices as frequently as they have. This isn't a rent controlled apartment, guys. If you need more money, fine, raise the prices once, and if that doesn't work, find another approach. Or at least grandfather in existing subscriptions so you aren't making your entire customer base reconsider their subscription every six months. (As an example, I was grandfathered in to Google Music's two-dollar-cheaper plan for a few years, and that alone was the only reason I continued paying for Google Music).

tinus_hn 5y ago

Is it really surprising that a service that gained tons of subscribers due to lockdowns loses a lot of them again once the lockdowns end?

Mindwipe 5y ago
They didn't even really lose them, Netflix gained subscribers if you exclude Russia.
- gdulli 5y ago
  Not accounting for Russia they'd still have been 2 million subscribers short of the forecast of 2.5 million subscribers. And they're forecasting a loss of 2 million more in Q2, which makes the loss of 200k in Q1 look small.

mattbrewsbytes 5y ago

Netflix's core competency was the best distribution (DVD by mail then streaming) and not the best content. Their competitors can beat them on content because that's their competency, distribution is commoditized at this point. This is an example where they were ahead of the industry with distribution and now that their competitors have invested in infrastructure/distribution, supply chain (movie/show production takes time), marketing, and have competing products the competition is fierce when your price is the highest. Now replace Netflix with Tesla and this could be the same case in the automobile market in a 3-5 year span. Market leader because they lead the industry in one element but once that tech (batteries/EV/charging network) is commoditized, the market leader could suffer.

brianwawok 4y ago
Here’s the difference I think between the Netflix and Tesla story. Netflix was in a new market. No one had serious streaming. They had content, but didn’t use the internet to sell it. They borrowed content and did the stream thing. The “moat” was “could NBC etc figure out how to put pictures on the internet”. The answer is apparently yes, and then they yanked their content back. Now Netflix has to reproduce Disney / marvel / all the bug content makers to compete. Tesla is much more an established market. Yes battery car is new. But ford etc have huge huge legacy commitments. A culture of outsourcing. Software as a frill not a core feature. A legacy method of distribution (dealers). Ford can’t just drop their dealers network.ford can’t just fire their pension obligations. They are very much “stuck” in their direction. If Tesla is topped, I very much expect it to come form a rival startup and not legacy auto. 12 years in and I see no signs the legacy automakers are doing the right things. Still no OTA updates with regular frequency. You still have to argue with dealer over price and deal with scummery.
- jodleif 4y ago
  I think Tesla is extremely overvalued, very curious to see how it plays out
  - landa 4y ago
    If you think it's overvalued then you should be short the stock. We've seen how that played out for other shorts.
    - belter 4y ago
      And the market will stay irrational longer that somebody can stay solvent...
      - landa 4y ago
        Another way to say that you don't want to put your money where your mouth is.

dylan-m 4y ago

Every time Netflix raises their price, it hits the news, and people think "hmm, maybe I should cancel Netflix." This is antithetical to their success so far, which has been a cheap enough subscription that people stay subscribed because it's easier than unsubscribing when they aren't using it. It is insane to me. Absolutely insane. That they have been raising prices as frequently as they have. This isn't a rent controlled apartment, guys. If you need more money, fine, raise the prices once, and if that doesn't work, find another approach. Or at least grandfather in existing subscriptions so you aren't making your entire customer base reconsider their subscription every six months. (As an example, I was grandfathered in to Google Music's two-dollar-cheaper plan for a few years, and that alone was the only reason I continued paying for Google Music).