2 ms·
It's mostly just how the logistics happen to have turned out. Armies and battle theatres take a long time to move. And then there's the little thing where he be
by kstenerud 5y ago
It's mostly just how the logistics happen to have turned out. Armies and battle theatres take a long time to move. And then there's the little thing where he believed the FSB's toadie intelligence [1] that he could take all of Ukraine in a day, 4 max.
Putin has decreed that there shall be a victory by Victory Day (May 9), and every redistribution of personnel or materiel causes massive delays, making any kind of victory by then even less likely. Their logistics and equipment maintenance is terrible, as is evidenced in their transportation and resupply effort [2]
There's also a lot of sunk cost fixation going on. He's already lost most of his prize, a hard pill to swallow. But every other bit of territorial potential he loses is infuriating. This is the RUSSIAN army, goddammit! A world class army! An empire army! And they WILL have a victory by May 9th if they know what's good for them.
So his generals continue to obey him, reinforcing damaged units with other damaged units as morale continues to plummet [3], trying desperately to coax the soldiers in Maruipol into surrendering so that they can call this their "victory" [4].
[1] https://www.igorsushko.com/2022/03/hits-about-to-hit-fan-between-fsb-putin.html https://www.igorsushko.com/2022/03/hits-about-to-hit-fan-bet...
[2] https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/14/europe/ukraine-war-russia-trucks-logistics-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/14/europe/ukraine-war-russia...
[3] http://www.iswresearch.org/2022/04/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_18.html http://www.iswresearch.org/2022/04/russian-offensive-campaig...
[4] http://www.iswresearch.org/2022/04/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_20.html http://www.iswresearch.org/2022/04/russian-offensive-campaig...