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You could be right, I think we will see more wars explicitly over resources before the music stops, however. It’s been argued that even WW1 was a war over resou
by h-w 4y ago
You could be right, I think we will see more wars explicitly over resources before the music stops, however. It’s been argued that even WW1 was a war over resources, and we have had plenty of wars since over specific resources. [1] I think the violence will be much worse and geopolitics much more heavy handed and desperate when we are actually nearing the end of “infinite growth.” Some people believe we will technologize ourselves a solution before it gets that bad, it remains uncertain. Seeing commodities prices double in value is a definite clue that things are getting tight, and many people have bet that commodities markets will become more expensive in the future. But the current pricing may very well be transitory. A number of analysts (from the likes of J.P. Morgan and Bank of America, as well as the largest hedge fund) think the next ten years will have zero real return on investments [2]. This would not be the first decade with zero net returns [3]. Like I said though, my gut feeling is we are not at the end of the massive growth, and that it will be abundantly clear if the time comes. Not to say things are looking cheery now, but my money is on growth over the next 20 years, even if the next ten are not great.
The best case scenario should that time come would be a soft landing into a much more balanced and organized economy. [0] Adam Smith himself predicted its inevitability. Who knows if mankind will ever be mature enough to take such a drastic, self-aware step.
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steady-state_economy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steady-state_economy
[1] https://www.sharing.org/why-nations-need-to-share/conflict-o https://www.sharing.org/why-nations-need-to-share/conflict-o...
[2] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-face-a-lost-deca https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-face-a-lost-deca...
[3] https://thebestinterest.medium.com/decades-of-zero-return-cc https://thebestinterest.medium.com/decades-of-zero-return-cc...