6 ms·

If there's a non-zero chance that you will be returned to life at some point in the future, then however unlikely that chance is worth 25k. It is a lottery; the

by thret 15y ago

If there's a non-zero chance that you will be returned to life at some point in the future, then however unlikely that chance is worth 25k. It is a lottery; the cost is small compared to the payoff and it rationalises hope.

jpulgarin 15y ago
I have discovered a way of extending anyone's life. I will extend yours if you send me 25k via paypal. You can find my email in my profile. Note that this is a non-zero chance.
- lsparrish 15y ago
  There's an astronomically high probability that you're saying this to make a point, not because you have secret information. That fits perfectly with my model of expected human behavior. The question would be why your model of expected cryobiology/physics/future scientific development places its chance of success in anything like a similarly low category.
  - jpulgarin 15y ago
    I'm just arbitraging thret's belief that any non-zero chance of returning to life is worth 25k - nothing to do with cryonics.
- thret 15y ago
  And if I had an infinite supply of funds I would take all chances, regardless of credibility. I do not. You do not get points for reductio ad absurdum arguments.
evgen 15y ago
Sounds a lot like Pascal's wager; small cost, high benefit, equally ridiculous probability of a payoff...
- burgerbrain 15y ago
  Well, at least cryo tanks are tangible.
  - wazoox 15y ago
    The probability that they stay in shape for even a couple of centuries is abysmally low (how many companies survive that long?). The probability that, in the unlikely case your dead frozen head isn't thrown away at some point in time, you can be revived from it is so extraordinarily remote that I don't see the point. It is way more likely that at some point technology will allow to simulate famous personalities from their writings, photos, etc than from a frozen piece of meat. When you're dead, you're dead. Get over it, most people who have been are dead, too. And like the saying goes, cemeteries are full of indispensable men.
    - burgerbrain 15y ago
      Don't get me wrong, I'm not big on the stuff. But it's no Pascal's Wager either. This is way better than supernatural shit. This is a bad bet, not an impossible bet / illogical argument.
      - dpark 15y ago
        It is not "supernatural shit", but it is Pascal's Wager. It takes the same form and has the same flaws. It is an invalid argument. By paying $25k to be frozen, you also get a nonzero chance that you'll be revived and live through thousands of years of torture.
        burgerbrain 15y ago
        Eh, I'll give you part of Pascal's Wager. The other part of it is the logical absurdity of thinking that someone who doesn't already believe can be blackmailed into believing. Pascal's Wager can only be used to defend belief, not create. (But every time I've heard someone IRL use it they seem to not understand that). That's a big part of what Pascal's Wager "is" to me.
vacri 15y ago
Also often forgotten is that biology isn't like an on/off switch - will you come back the same way physcially? Mentally? Could you live with having lost some of your higher mental facilities?
- gwern 15y ago
  Given the mental damage done by aging (http://www.gwern.net/DNB%20FAQ#aging http://www.gwern.net/DNB%20FAQ#aging), it is a fact that ~>98% of humans, given the opportunity to live with having lost some of their higher mental facilities, will in fact choose to live.
- lsparrish 15y ago
  I don't expect to survive with my memories all intact unless I am very lucky. However the complete regeneration of missing parts and restoration of lost functions seems like a very solvable problem. The fact that a large portion of cryonics funding will eventually go towards this kind of research and thus help non-cryonics patients who have brain injuries is a rather significant spillover benefit.
gwern 15y ago
That is not true, and when you express it like that, it is a Pascal's wager! I would not pay 25k for a 0.00001% chance of revival, because I do not value my life at >25 billion USD.

by thret 15y ago

jpulgarin 15y ago

I have discovered a way of extending anyone's life. I will extend yours if you send me 25k via paypal. You can find my email in my profile. Note that this is a non-zero chance.

lsparrish 15y ago
There's an astronomically high probability that you're saying this to make a point, not because you have secret information. That fits perfectly with my model of expected human behavior. The question would be why your model of expected cryobiology/physics/future scientific development places its chance of success in anything like a similarly low category.
- jpulgarin 15y ago
  I'm just arbitraging thret's belief that any non-zero chance of returning to life is worth 25k - nothing to do with cryonics.
thret 15y ago
And if I had an infinite supply of funds I would take all chances, regardless of credibility. I do not. You do not get points for reductio ad absurdum arguments.

evgen 15y ago

Sounds a lot like Pascal's wager; small cost, high benefit, equally ridiculous probability of a payoff...

burgerbrain 15y ago
Well, at least cryo tanks are tangible.
- wazoox 15y ago
  The probability that they stay in shape for even a couple of centuries is abysmally low (how many companies survive that long?). The probability that, in the unlikely case your dead frozen head isn't thrown away at some point in time, you can be revived from it is so extraordinarily remote that I don't see the point. It is way more likely that at some point technology will allow to simulate famous personalities from their writings, photos, etc than from a frozen piece of meat. When you're dead, you're dead. Get over it, most people who have been are dead, too. And like the saying goes, cemeteries are full of indispensable men.
  - burgerbrain 15y ago
    Don't get me wrong, I'm not big on the stuff. But it's no Pascal's Wager either. This is way better than supernatural shit. This is a bad bet, not an impossible bet / illogical argument.
    - dpark 15y ago
      It is not "supernatural shit", but it is Pascal's Wager. It takes the same form and has the same flaws. It is an invalid argument. By paying $25k to be frozen, you also get a nonzero chance that you'll be revived and live through thousands of years of torture.
      - burgerbrain 15y ago
        Eh, I'll give you part of Pascal's Wager. The other part of it is the logical absurdity of thinking that someone who doesn't already believe can be blackmailed into believing. Pascal's Wager can only be used to defend belief, not create. (But every time I've heard someone IRL use it they seem to not understand that). That's a big part of what Pascal's Wager "is" to me.

vacri 15y ago

Also often forgotten is that biology isn't like an on/off switch - will you come back the same way physcially? Mentally? Could you live with having lost some of your higher mental facilities?

gwern 15y ago
Given the mental damage done by aging (http://www.gwern.net/DNB%20FAQ#aging http://www.gwern.net/DNB%20FAQ#aging), it is a fact that ~>98% of humans, given the opportunity to live with having lost some of their higher mental facilities, will in fact choose to live.
lsparrish 15y ago
I don't expect to survive with my memories all intact unless I am very lucky. However the complete regeneration of missing parts and restoration of lost functions seems like a very solvable problem. The fact that a large portion of cryonics funding will eventually go towards this kind of research and thus help non-cryonics patients who have brain injuries is a rather significant spillover benefit.

gwern 15y ago

That is not true, and when you express it like that, it is a Pascal's wager! I would not pay 25k for a 0.00001% chance of revival, because I do not value my life at >25 billion USD.