3 ms·
I agree with most everything, except I'm not quite sold on vaccines as the a silver bullet: 1) We don't quite understand the impact of a new disease on the vac
by blagie 5y ago
I agree with most everything, except I'm not quite sold on vaccines as the a silver bullet:
1) We don't quite understand the impact of a new disease on the vaccinated. /Many/ diseases have debilitating long-term effects. Some vaccines -- for example rabies -- prevent that. Others don't.
2) We don't know how well vaccines will work for future disease.
I view them more as part of a comprehensive solution. What I would have liked to see with COVID, and with future diseases, is a sufficient zero-COVID policy everywhere to stop the disease, as happened with smaller outbreaks in recent years.
My general conclusion is that we ought to have:
- Enough manufacturing capacity to provide everyone in the world with high-filtration masks, disinfecting wipes, plastic gloves, and similar basic supplies
- Enough vaccine manufacturing capacity to be able to roll out an mRNA vaccine to 7 billion people in a few months at most
- Enough manufacturing capacity to be able to spin out things like antigen and PCR tests quickly
- Some plan for supply chains to get everyone food if we need another lockdown
- Plans for contact tracing, ideally with practice drills.
- Perhaps, some plan for how our economy doesn't implode on a lockdown. This went surprisingly well with covid19, but I feel a little bit by fluke.
... and similar types of emergency precautions.
- pasabagi 5y agoWell, I guess the (somewhat cynical) calculus most politicians/bureaucrats make is that however many people become ill in the long term, it's probably less expensive than lockdowns (even if lockdowns are less expensive than health system collapse and mass death). As much as the long term health implications of covid are unfolding, so to are the economic effects: we're in a really weird and volatile economic situation, and things that move the needle on basics (food, fuel, etc) kill a lot of people.