3 ms·

Any support of your opinion? At least some book as I referenced or something?

• rramadass 5y ago
  It is commonsense; all decisions are not in the same category. If you need specific references, Nassim Taleb's books are a good place to start. His book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable divides events into two categories; Extremistan and Mediocristan. Events/Decisions in the former can have extreme unpredictable non-linear effects while those in the latter are more sedate and have predictable cumulative effects. An example is the earning capacity of A Dentist (steady regular income with a predictable statistical model i.e. Mediocristan) vs. A Venture Capitalist (unpredictable, large risks, all his bets might fail or one may become a unicorn i.e. Extremistan). For a comprehensive study of decision-making, see the excellent Thinking and Deciding by Jonathan Baron.
  • aristofun 5y ago
    What it has to do with personal decision making?
    • rramadass 5y ago
      Assuming your question is serious; Any "Decision" is an "Event" with some consequences which carry a "Risk". The idea is to learn to recognize and quantify it properly to a certain extent before making the Decision.
      • aristofun 5y ago
        No, i mean what «black swan” book ideas (which I respect btw) derived from markets analysis etc has to do with “how many children should I have” decision? This is exactly why I mentioned the book I mentioned. It describes one brilliant piece of philosophy in the domain of personal life decision making.