What you’re entirely missing is that stocks track inflation (and exceed it with growth) long term. Yes, for past returns, nominal yield - inflation is all there

What you’re entirely missing is that stocks track inflation (and exceed it with growth) long term. Yes, for past returns, nominal yield - inflation is all there is to calculate real yield. But using that to project future yield, without factoring in inflation’s future effect on the asset, is a mistake, as my math illustrates. If you have a bond paying 5%, and a stock paying 5% yield, but the government suddenly prints 10% of money to the money supply and helicopter moneys it, that bond won’t budge, it’s why it’s called fixed income, the future payments are already set nominally. But that stock would effectively be worth 10% more, because the currency was debased 10%. There’s the same amount of company ownership producing tangible goods now being chased by 110% of the money. Yes, fluctuations from CPI occur due to front loading expectations, velocity, potential from M2, interest rates, productivity growth, and macroeconomic environment. All those are different forces applying pressure at various times, but they’re orthogonal to limited company ownership chased by an inflating currency. It’s much more certain that company value be retained independent on inflation than the 10y will predict it.