If you really need to evaluate it systematically, you can work out a risk-reward analysis. Basically, you make a little grid where the rows are labeled with you

If you really need to evaluate it systematically, you can work out a risk-reward analysis. Basically, you make a little grid where the rows are labeled with your possible choices, and the columns are labeled with the possible outcomes. In each square, you give each choice/outcome combo a score, higher if you think it's a better result, lower if it's not as good, and negative if it's a bad result. You also include in that square a percentage (between 0 and 1) of what you estimate to be the likelihood of that outcome if you make that choice. When you've got all the data filled in, go through and multiply every score by its corresponding likelihood. When you're done, the box with the highest resulting value is your best option. So to use your first question as an example: "should I go and live in the USA or stay in India?" The rows would be labeled with "USA" and "India", the columns with (to be general) "I have a happy life" and "I am unhappy". You pick scores for "I move to the USA and am happy", "I move to the USA and am unhappy", "I stay in India and am happy", and "I stay in India and am unhappy". Pick scores that represent the relative goodness/badness of that outcome in your opinion. Then you estimate the chances of being happy or unhappy in the US and India and multiply the scores out. The highest score is what you should do. This is, of course, assuming you need a systematic analysis of your decision; sometimes, you just have to go with your gut and accept the risks if it doesn't work out.