4 ms·

I care about purchasing power over time. If inflation is going to mean that regardless of how I invest, tomorrow I will be able to buy less, then I would buy mo

by Msw242 4y ago

I care about purchasing power over time. If inflation is going to mean that regardless of how I invest, tomorrow I will be able to buy less, then I would buy more today. I know there are limits, like in 1920 I couldn't buy a 1gbps internet connection or a Moderna vaccine. But despite inflation's flaws, it is useful as part of a discount rate for measuring returns.

Retric 4y ago
Goods don’t rise and fall in lockstep but standard figures aren’t bad. In 1929 pig iron was 18.43$ per ton, it was $640-650 per tonne on March 7. Inflation calculator suggests it should be ~309$/ton which is fairly close across 92years but low. It also spiked to 1000+$/ton a few months later. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ Gasoline on the other hand was 0.21$/ gallon in 1929 plug into the inflation calculator and you get $3.53 much closer. Chicken was 42¢/lb in 1929 New York same inflation number gives $7.06/pound today which is high. What really messes things up is when goods stop representing the same thing across time. A new house in 1929 house was likely though not guaranteed to have indoor plumbing but AC was rare even though both where available back then. Of course 1929 AC was often focused on humility control not just temperature so again not apples to apples but in the other direction. Look for a comparable home base on floor space, number of bathrooms etc and housing prices are rising much slower than many charts suggest.
- Msw242 4y ago
  All models are wrong, but some are useful. We all know that efficiencies have driven down the cost of many manufactured goods (like TVs) and scalable services (like ATMs and online banking) We also all know that cost disease has driven up non-scalable services (healthcare, higher Ed, govt) and supply-constrained good/assets (price of land) The basket is still useful for understanding whether an investment clears your hurdle :)
  - Retric 4y ago
    I am not convinced things break down that simply. Healthcare is probably the best example of something that isn’t compared Apples to Apples across time. The cost of an X-Ray, cast, and some pain killers isn’t seeing nearly the cost increase those charts suggest.

by Msw242 4y ago

Retric 4y ago

Goods don’t rise and fall in lockstep but standard figures aren’t bad. In 1929 pig iron was 18.43$ per ton, it was $640-650 per tonne on March 7. Inflation calculator suggests it should be ~309$/ton which is fairly close across 92years but low. It also spiked to 1000+$/ton a few months later. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ Gasoline on the other hand was 0.21$/ gallon in 1929 plug into the inflation calculator and you get $3.53 much closer. Chicken was 42¢/lb in 1929 New York same inflation number gives $7.06/pound today which is high. What really messes things up is when goods stop representing the same thing across time. A new house in 1929 house was likely though not guaranteed to have indoor plumbing but AC was rare even though both where available back then. Of course 1929 AC was often focused on humility control not just temperature so again not apples to apples but in the other direction. Look for a comparable home base on floor space, number of bathrooms etc and housing prices are rising much slower than many charts suggest.

Msw242 4y ago
All models are wrong, but some are useful. We all know that efficiencies have driven down the cost of many manufactured goods (like TVs) and scalable services (like ATMs and online banking) We also all know that cost disease has driven up non-scalable services (healthcare, higher Ed, govt) and supply-constrained good/assets (price of land) The basket is still useful for understanding whether an investment clears your hurdle :)
- Retric 4y ago
  I am not convinced things break down that simply. Healthcare is probably the best example of something that isn’t compared Apples to Apples across time. The cost of an X-Ray, cast, and some pain killers isn’t seeing nearly the cost increase those charts suggest.