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Here's the shadowstats chart: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-p

Here's the shadowstats chart: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-pro...

gruez 5y ago
That's actually more reasonable than what you'd get if you combine their inflation figures[1] with nominal GDP[2]. Eyeballing their inflation chart (actual figures are paywalled), it looks like we've been experiencing 9% inflation since 2000. Between Q1 2000 and Q1 2020, nominal GDP per capita went up 82% (ie. 1.822x), but 9% growth for 20 year works out to be 460% growth (ie. 5.604x). In other words, the economy contracted by 67% in real terms. Maybe they realized that's too ridiculous even for conspiracy theorists, and revised their figures accordingly? [1] http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif?hl=ad&t=1649771031 http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif?hl=ad&t=16497710... [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RC0Q052SBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RC0Q052SBEA
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  Why would you link to GDP PER CAPITA? Are you ignoring that population has grown since 2000? GDP since 2000 went from 10.5T to 24T (2.285x). Adjusted for 3% inflation, that's a 26% increase. Your point remains. 4% inflation would mean a 4% increase over 20 years. 5% inflation would mean a 14% DECREASE over 20 years. 6% inflation would mean a 29% DECREASE over 20 years. 7% inflation would mean a 41% DECREASE over 20 years. 8% inflation would mean a 51% DECREASE over 20 years. The problem is - the way people experience inflation is dramatically impacted by whether they had a 30-year fixed mortgage. If your house PRICE went up 400% since 2000 and your housing cost went DOWN 20% since 2000 - inflation would obviously seem low. If your rent went up 400% since 2000, it obviously feels different. 67% of people are homeowners - and the Fed's measure of inflation seems largely targeted to this group of people. The true rate of inflation is almost certainly higher - but probably nowhere close to ShadowStats.
  - gruez 5y ago
    > Why would you link to GDP PER CAPITA? Are you ignoring that population has grown since 2000? 1. using country level GDP gets you a 63% drop, hardly any better 2. The argument I was making was with respect to living standards (ie. there's no way that our income/living standards dropped 67% in 20 years). In that context it makes sense to use GDP per capita rather than GDP for the entire country. If US population grew 50% over some time period, and GDP only grew 25%, that's actually bad because that means the average person is actually worse off than before.

Here's the shadowstats chart: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-pro...

gruez 5y ago

That's actually more reasonable than what you'd get if you combine their inflation figures[1] with nominal GDP[2]. Eyeballing their inflation chart (actual figures are paywalled), it looks like we've been experiencing 9% inflation since 2000. Between Q1 2000 and Q1 2020, nominal GDP per capita went up 82% (ie. 1.822x), but 9% growth for 20 year works out to be 460% growth (ie. 5.604x). In other words, the economy contracted by 67% in real terms. Maybe they realized that's too ridiculous even for conspiracy theorists, and revised their figures accordingly? [1] http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif?hl=ad&t=1649771031 http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif?hl=ad&t=16497710... [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RC0Q052SBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RC0Q052SBEA

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Why would you link to GDP PER CAPITA? Are you ignoring that population has grown since 2000? GDP since 2000 went from 10.5T to 24T (2.285x). Adjusted for 3% inflation, that's a 26% increase. Your point remains. 4% inflation would mean a 4% increase over 20 years. 5% inflation would mean a 14% DECREASE over 20 years. 6% inflation would mean a 29% DECREASE over 20 years. 7% inflation would mean a 41% DECREASE over 20 years. 8% inflation would mean a 51% DECREASE over 20 years. The problem is - the way people experience inflation is dramatically impacted by whether they had a 30-year fixed mortgage. If your house PRICE went up 400% since 2000 and your housing cost went DOWN 20% since 2000 - inflation would obviously seem low. If your rent went up 400% since 2000, it obviously feels different. 67% of people are homeowners - and the Fed's measure of inflation seems largely targeted to this group of people. The true rate of inflation is almost certainly higher - but probably nowhere close to ShadowStats.
- gruez 5y ago
  > Why would you link to GDP PER CAPITA? Are you ignoring that population has grown since 2000? 1. using country level GDP gets you a 63% drop, hardly any better 2. The argument I was making was with respect to living standards (ie. there's no way that our income/living standards dropped 67% in 20 years). In that context it makes sense to use GDP per capita rather than GDP for the entire country. If US population grew 50% over some time period, and GDP only grew 25%, that's actually bad because that means the average person is actually worse off than before.