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I think you make a good general point and I will agree, but it needs to be said that not every bubble will recover, for example the tulip bubble, beanie babies

by yumraj 5y ago

I think you make a good general point and I will agree, but it needs to be said that not every bubble will recover, for example the tulip bubble, beanie babies and so on. Crypto, NFT .. who knows, only time will tell who was right.

88840-8855 5y ago
Don't forget the Japanese stock market that could never recover from the bu bubble in the 80s.
- gruez 5y ago
  Technically it did recover. The price hasn't but if you factor in dividends (ie. total return), you'd be up 32.228% between 1989 and 2021.
  - weatherlite 5y ago
    Adjusted for inflation it's a huge loss. Sure it beat holding cash though, holding cash is for sure the worst thing you can do.
hanniabu 5y ago
I think crypto has already proven itself. Every time it's increasing people say it's a bubble, then it retraces and they say "see!", and then it recovers and excels and they repeat. Only the delusion would disagree.
- boringg 5y ago
  Not proven yet. Still needs another decade and the illusive good use cases. We need to see the pandemic impacts abated to see if "crypto" holds value.
  - syntheweave 5y ago
    Pornhub's premium service already uses crypto and has since the credit card monopolies threw them out in 2020. I just checked - the only other way to pay is by ACH. If porn is the bellwether, then use cases have arrived.
    - smackeyacky 5y ago
      Or more likely, crypto has found yet another morally repugnant use. The CC companies withdrew from PornHub because their business model was paying for the production of child pornography. Crypto pops up its ugly head yet again. Not a coincidence given the other "killer apps" are extortion, money laundering and greater fool farming.
vmception 5y ago
Not everything is a buy and hold trade. The tulip bubble ended because the bubonic plague killed all the speculators and didn't even affect the spot market of tulips, so we don't even know what would happen. Worst bubble example. There were several great, rational, trades with beanie babies as well that has nothing to do with the latecomers that hoarded them and acted surprised and delusional when they were holding the bag. Out of all the famous bubbles, I think equities bubbles are more useful examples of irrecoverable irrational exuberance than any commodities/product bubble.

by yumraj 5y ago

88840-8855 5y ago

Don't forget the Japanese stock market that could never recover from the bu bubble in the 80s.

gruez 5y ago
Technically it did recover. The price hasn't but if you factor in dividends (ie. total return), you'd be up 32.228% between 1989 and 2021.
- weatherlite 5y ago
  Adjusted for inflation it's a huge loss. Sure it beat holding cash though, holding cash is for sure the worst thing you can do.

hanniabu 5y ago

I think crypto has already proven itself. Every time it's increasing people say it's a bubble, then it retraces and they say "see!", and then it recovers and excels and they repeat. Only the delusion would disagree.

boringg 5y ago
Not proven yet. Still needs another decade and the illusive good use cases. We need to see the pandemic impacts abated to see if "crypto" holds value.
- syntheweave 5y ago
  Pornhub's premium service already uses crypto and has since the credit card monopolies threw them out in 2020. I just checked - the only other way to pay is by ACH. If porn is the bellwether, then use cases have arrived.
  - smackeyacky 5y ago
    Or more likely, crypto has found yet another morally repugnant use. The CC companies withdrew from PornHub because their business model was paying for the production of child pornography. Crypto pops up its ugly head yet again. Not a coincidence given the other "killer apps" are extortion, money laundering and greater fool farming.

vmception 5y ago

Not everything is a buy and hold trade. The tulip bubble ended because the bubonic plague killed all the speculators and didn't even affect the spot market of tulips, so we don't even know what would happen. Worst bubble example. There were several great, rational, trades with beanie babies as well that has nothing to do with the latecomers that hoarded them and acted surprised and delusional when they were holding the bag. Out of all the famous bubbles, I think equities bubbles are more useful examples of irrecoverable irrational exuberance than any commodities/product bubble.