4 ms·

We aren't in the early 2000s anymore. Tech companies won't be seen as a "fad" any time soon. As long as VCs keep making money out of diversifying risk, the "bub

We aren't in the early 2000s anymore. Tech companies won't be seen as a "fad" any time soon. As long as VCs keep making money out of diversifying risk, the "bubble" will never burst.

toto444 5y ago
Do you mean that 'this time is different' ?
- metamet 5y ago
  Yes, but unironically. Societal and cultural understandings of what "tech" is has shifted dramatically in the last 20 years. Home computers were still pretty niche, constant connectivity via pocket size computers was a work of science fiction, and we didn't have an omnipresent internet retailer that could bring you nearly anything in a few hours/a couple days. The possibilities of the internet and tech companies were still in their formulative stage with regards to the general population. It's now so engrained in our daily lives that it's taken for granted. I suspect the bubbles that will actually burst are going to be incredible niche. Even then, things like NFTs may survive due to a cultural imagination that allows ideas to live on longer than maybe they should.
- hahaxdxd123 5y ago
  I mean, every time is different in the sorts of companies/sector of the economy that fails. The large tech companies actually do have solid fundamentals. The dynamics of the business cycle remains the same though and some more speculative companies will fail (taking a look at the 6-month performance of Asana, Palantir, Zoom, etc makes me quite happy as a shorter).
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- ak_111 5y ago
  I remember two partners from Andreessen Horowitz gave a presentation to a group of investors and journalists around 2015, where they had a slide with literally the title "This time is different". I thought to myself this will not end well, major crash around the corner. I am annoyed that they were right.
  - ak_111 5y ago
    https://www.businessinsider.com/benedict-evans-says-there-is-no-bubble-because-its-different-this-time-2015-6?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=The%20in%2Djoke%20in%20Evans,as%20his%20deck%20says%2C%20%22it's https://www.businessinsider.com/benedict-evans-says-there-is...
mupuff1234 5y ago
But are they making money because the bubble keeps growing or because the companies they invested in turned profitable? I believe it's the former, but haven't done any analysis to back up that assumption.
- mr90210 5y ago
  I think the former too, most hot startups are just money-burning-machines. Recently I stumbled upon a company founded in 2019, with more 1500 employees, that’s about ~500 employees a year. That isn’t growth, at all, that’s something else.
  - cupofpython 5y ago
    if "growth" is analogous to cell growth, then your example would be similar to cancer
pm90 5y ago
The web3 stuff sure does look like fads to me. Early 2010s tech boom, while it involved a lot of money, felt like it was directing money at generally useful things. Cloud, Big Data, AI etc. were “buzzwords” but were generating real value for companies that used them correctly. It seemed like VCS had learned from 2000s. With web3 we see a lot of vaporware and pyramid schemes. It is unlikely to pop like it did back then considering how entrenched technology is today but it would still wipe out a lot of value and further entrench the bigger companies.
- loeg 5y ago
  web3 is a dumb scam, sure. It isn't where any significant fraction of the money is.
  - Apocryphon 5y ago
    Yeah, blockchain is more of an attention and hype sink than where the majority of VC funding is going.
- FerociousTimes 5y ago
  Isn't web 3.0 dead on arrival already?
  - antifa 5y ago
    I feel like the only way it's not dead on arrival is if it's forced onto us in ways we can't ignore by monopolies.
blinded 5y ago
Was thinking that last night too. It would also be dumb of the US to allow tech to take a big hit considering it would prevent us from competing with other countries at all levels.

We aren't in the early 2000s anymore. Tech companies won't be seen as a "fad" any time soon. As long as VCs keep making money out of diversifying risk, the "bubble" will never burst.

toto444 5y ago

Do you mean that 'this time is different' ?

metamet 5y ago
Yes, but unironically. Societal and cultural understandings of what "tech" is has shifted dramatically in the last 20 years. Home computers were still pretty niche, constant connectivity via pocket size computers was a work of science fiction, and we didn't have an omnipresent internet retailer that could bring you nearly anything in a few hours/a couple days. The possibilities of the internet and tech companies were still in their formulative stage with regards to the general population. It's now so engrained in our daily lives that it's taken for granted. I suspect the bubbles that will actually burst are going to be incredible niche. Even then, things like NFTs may survive due to a cultural imagination that allows ideas to live on longer than maybe they should.
hahaxdxd123 5y ago
I mean, every time is different in the sorts of companies/sector of the economy that fails. The large tech companies actually do have solid fundamentals. The dynamics of the business cycle remains the same though and some more speculative companies will fail (taking a look at the 6-month performance of Asana, Palantir, Zoom, etc makes me quite happy as a shorter).
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
ak_111 5y ago
I remember two partners from Andreessen Horowitz gave a presentation to a group of investors and journalists around 2015, where they had a slide with literally the title "This time is different". I thought to myself this will not end well, major crash around the corner. I am annoyed that they were right.
- ak_111 5y ago
  https://www.businessinsider.com/benedict-evans-says-there-is-no-bubble-because-its-different-this-time-2015-6?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=The%20in%2Djoke%20in%20Evans,as%20his%20deck%20says%2C%20%22it's https://www.businessinsider.com/benedict-evans-says-there-is...

mupuff1234 5y ago

But are they making money because the bubble keeps growing or because the companies they invested in turned profitable? I believe it's the former, but haven't done any analysis to back up that assumption.

mr90210 5y ago
I think the former too, most hot startups are just money-burning-machines. Recently I stumbled upon a company founded in 2019, with more 1500 employees, that’s about ~500 employees a year. That isn’t growth, at all, that’s something else.
- cupofpython 5y ago
  if "growth" is analogous to cell growth, then your example would be similar to cancer

pm90 5y ago

The web3 stuff sure does look like fads to me. Early 2010s tech boom, while it involved a lot of money, felt like it was directing money at generally useful things. Cloud, Big Data, AI etc. were “buzzwords” but were generating real value for companies that used them correctly. It seemed like VCS had learned from 2000s. With web3 we see a lot of vaporware and pyramid schemes. It is unlikely to pop like it did back then considering how entrenched technology is today but it would still wipe out a lot of value and further entrench the bigger companies.

loeg 5y ago
web3 is a dumb scam, sure. It isn't where any significant fraction of the money is.
- Apocryphon 5y ago
  Yeah, blockchain is more of an attention and hype sink than where the majority of VC funding is going.
FerociousTimes 5y ago
Isn't web 3.0 dead on arrival already?
- antifa 5y ago
  I feel like the only way it's not dead on arrival is if it's forced onto us in ways we can't ignore by monopolies.

blinded 5y ago

Was thinking that last night too. It would also be dumb of the US to allow tech to take a big hit considering it would prevent us from competing with other countries at all levels.