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The sad thing is people I know would tell you the COVID number is _overcounted_ because anyone dying while having COVID is counted as a COVID death. That is tr

The sad thing is people I know would tell you the COVID number is _overcounted_ because anyone dying while having COVID is counted as a COVID death. That is true, but not enough to change the numbers and certainly not enough to make up for the uncounted cases. But when these media outlets get the numbers wrong, it bolsters these ideological positions built around “they’re lying to you”.

macinjosh 4y ago
It is entirely plausible that cases are under counted and deaths are over counted. The thinking goes that if someone is just a little sick they aren't going through the hassle of getting an official test and being counted. If someone is nearing deaths door they are going to take action and go to the hospital or clinic so you're likely to have a very high percentage of cases leading to death being reported. Add on to that the fact that people who died in a car accident and happened to have a non-symptomatic case of covid was added to the death numbers. That might not be a huge number but it will have an effect at some level. I don't see how it could not unless you completely ignore them. Inaccuracies in data can cut in all directions. In this case though, over counting deaths and under counting cases (a deliberate choice made by the CDC) made the virus seem more deadly than it likely was at the time. Is there a plausible argument for an under count of deaths? If so, I have not had the pleasure of hearing it.
couchand 4y ago
Something I find wonderful about the OP is that the emphasis is on the humanity. It's not that the news outlet is lying, it's that they are human and making a very human mistake. The OP's argument is that, even when the human working with numbers has the best intentions and plenty of relevant experience, it's really easy to fall victim to the "numbers are objective reality" fallacy.
efitz 4y ago
You kinda triggered me here. > That is true, but not enough to change the numbers By definition, if the counting methodology is wrong (in the misleading sense), then they necessarily DO “change the numbers” > and certainly not enough to make up for the uncounted cases The uncounted cases aren’t deaths. Therefore it’s not a question of “making up for” those cases. In fact, if anything, that makes it worse. Using a singular value “total number of deaths” is generally misleading when trying to justify public health policy on large populations. A global population of 7-8 billion means that even huge numbers can be insignificant, eg 1 million over 8 billion is only 0.0125%. (Disclaimer: Numbers chose at random; this example does not represent any actual statistic around COVID). If the cases are being overestimated then it drives the overall impact down. Numbers and methodology both matter intensely when we’re talking about using the numbers to justify public policy changes.
- listless 4y ago
  I stated that lazily. If we counted hospitilizations (which I would argue is the number that matters), then they would tell you that those are overcounted because many people go into the hospital with COVID, but that's not what they are there for and many more contract it while there. But the number makes it sound like all those folks are in the hospital BECAUSE of COVID.

macinjosh 4y ago

It is entirely plausible that cases are under counted and deaths are over counted. The thinking goes that if someone is just a little sick they aren't going through the hassle of getting an official test and being counted. If someone is nearing deaths door they are going to take action and go to the hospital or clinic so you're likely to have a very high percentage of cases leading to death being reported. Add on to that the fact that people who died in a car accident and happened to have a non-symptomatic case of covid was added to the death numbers. That might not be a huge number but it will have an effect at some level. I don't see how it could not unless you completely ignore them. Inaccuracies in data can cut in all directions. In this case though, over counting deaths and under counting cases (a deliberate choice made by the CDC) made the virus seem more deadly than it likely was at the time. Is there a plausible argument for an under count of deaths? If so, I have not had the pleasure of hearing it.

couchand 4y ago

Something I find wonderful about the OP is that the emphasis is on the humanity. It's not that the news outlet is lying, it's that they are human and making a very human mistake. The OP's argument is that, even when the human working with numbers has the best intentions and plenty of relevant experience, it's really easy to fall victim to the "numbers are objective reality" fallacy.

efitz 4y ago

You kinda triggered me here. > That is true, but not enough to change the numbers By definition, if the counting methodology is wrong (in the misleading sense), then they necessarily DO “change the numbers” > and certainly not enough to make up for the uncounted cases The uncounted cases aren’t deaths. Therefore it’s not a question of “making up for” those cases. In fact, if anything, that makes it worse. Using a singular value “total number of deaths” is generally misleading when trying to justify public health policy on large populations. A global population of 7-8 billion means that even huge numbers can be insignificant, eg 1 million over 8 billion is only 0.0125%. (Disclaimer: Numbers chose at random; this example does not represent any actual statistic around COVID). If the cases are being overestimated then it drives the overall impact down. Numbers and methodology both matter intensely when we’re talking about using the numbers to justify public policy changes.

listless 4y ago
I stated that lazily. If we counted hospitilizations (which I would argue is the number that matters), then they would tell you that those are overcounted because many people go into the hospital with COVID, but that's not what they are there for and many more contract it while there. But the number makes it sound like all those folks are in the hospital BECAUSE of COVID.