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Having your housing stock bought up as holdings by nonresidents is not great. It hollows out the communities by having choice housing sit empty and it raises th

Having your housing stock bought up as holdings by nonresidents is not great. It hollows out the communities by having choice housing sit empty and it raises the cost of living for everyone who is actually there. I'm interested to see how this plays out. It seems pretty heavy handed. Zoning denser housing or placing limited restrictions on square footage may proved smarter in the long term. That said, two years is pretty short term in this context.

BlargMcLarg 5y ago
Prediction: barely anything happens and problems continue to rise as population numbers have yet to peak and the people who are struggling most with this problem, the working class, continues to lose wealth relatively to the upper classes. Almost every country with these problems has similar symptoms and the problem could've been seen coming from decades away. Tackling these things requires far, far more input from governing bodies. Input they aren't willing to give.
- beaconstudios 5y ago
  I can see a resurgence of social democracy coming soon as the problems with things like real estate investment and unrestricted emissions come home to roost. We've already seen a little bit of that with Bernie Sanders.
  - BlargMcLarg 5y ago
    I can't speak for the US, but here in NL, I don't see things changing very soon for various reasons. Very few voters actually care to solve the issue. Home owners still far outweigh those who don't. Quite a few of the older generation bank on their property/properties to carry them through retirement. No one wants to see their house go under, even if they can realistically endure it without severe consequences. There's no incentive to increase interest rates, but banks obviously don't want to carry more risks, so individuals aren't getting the same mortgage-to-house price ratio as before. "Figure it out" mentality. Even if there is a national or even global trend, responsibility to solve the issue is pushed onto the individual. Or worse, global mentality shifts to accept what is going on. "Yeah buying was normal back in the day, now you rent. Get over it." Grandfathering and "empathy for the fortunate". Yes, I get it, you don't want your lucky uncle who worked a bad job for decades to lose his retirement. You don't want Mr. John in his McMansion on the other side of the road to lose his fortune. Almost no one wants to be the bad guy. Yet special ruling to keep the "haves" in their position continue to be placed at cost of the "have nots". No one wants to hurt anyone. As a result, the solution often seem to be continuing the same fruitless endeavor which changes nothing for the "have nots". As mentioned before, population has yet to peak. Governments are still incentivizing people to come in or reproduce above replacement rate, despite it becoming evident we're just not capable of handling them. In theory we can handle way higher populations. In practice, there's no incentive to do so without severely punishing the working class further. We're slowly normalizing a cyberpunk dystopia and most people seem okay with it. "At least you have iphones" is going to define gen Z and gen alpha at this point.
    - beaconstudios 5y ago
      > "Figure it out" mentality. Even if there is a national or even global trend, responsibility to solve the issue is pushed onto the individual. Or worse, global mentality shifts to accept what is going on. "Yeah buying was normal back in the day, now you rent. Get over it." This is a symptom of neoliberal ideology - the acceptance of any market outcome, no matter how negative, as "natural" and to be accepted or at least left unchanged. That's the predominant narrative, but I think that could change. The reason I have some hope for a social-democratic turnaround is that the US has cultural hegemony, what happens there is broadcasted across the world through American media and other cultural exports. Currently, younger generations are engaged in a revival of left politics; this will almost definitely influence American politics in the coming years, and I'm hoping us Europeans (I'm from the UK) see some downwind benefit from that. There's already some smatterings of progressive politics in the UK, for instance - probably on a level comparable to 2012-2016 in the US. We even had our own Bernie in the form of Corbyn, and our far right resurgence is running low on steam thankfully.
    - harambae 5y ago
      > There's no incentive to increase interest rates At some point the market decides this, if inflation persists. BND (NASDAQ) is already down over 9% YTD and that's supposed to be the safe half of split stock/bond investing. Despite how some people seem to view the Federal Reserve (and whatever the central bank of Canada is) neither country is a full on centrally planned economy, at least not yet.
- Workaccount2 5y ago
  The problem is selling real estate as "Surefire gains that never go down" and people pinning their entire life to the value of their home. This leads to people who rabidly defend the systems that increase their property value, and these people also tend to be the local voting majority, so they can shoot down anything that they don't like. The solution is declaring emergency powers to use eminent domain to seize unused property and build medium to high density housing on it. Yeah we'll have a few 6-fig account managers handcuffing themselves to bulldozers, but eventually it will get through.
  - usrn 5y ago
    Before you do that you better make damned sure you're doing the right thing. You're literally kicking people out of their homes and forcing them to move. We did that to the Indians a couple centuries ago and the consequences for both sides were not great. We did that to Mexican migratory workers last century and the result was the almost complete destruction of a country that shares a large land border with us. We're only beginning to experience the consequences from that.
    - Workaccount2 5y ago
      You're not kicking anyone out of anything. Uninhabited properties are bought by the government. Houses up for sale are gov purchased and turned into mutli-family. Basically the government is turned into the sole buyer who can also ignore zoning and resident complaints.
      - usrn 5y ago
        That's not what your comment said.
        Workaccount2 5y ago
        > eminent domain to seize unused property
- usrn 5y ago
  Domestic population in developed countries hit their peak a while ago. The demand side here is all immigration and I wish people would talk about that before they talk about bulldozing neighborhoods.
  - BlargMcLarg 5y ago
    Of course. But realistically, no one wants to deal with the inevitability of ageing populations having to either take the bullet and accept they were sold a bunch of lies, or causing the working class to crumble under the collective weight of all who depend on them. Most immigration and pushing for higher birthrates is just that, an admission by politicians they don't want to deal with the problem and passing it onto the next reigning party. That said, it's nowhere near the sole contributor. Quite a few countries have very low immigrant numbers along with low birthrates and still face soaring house prices. Rampant individualism doesn't help, either.
    - usrn 5y ago
      Which countries are you talking about? I'd be very interested in seeing that.
randomdata 5y ago
> Zoning denser housing or placing limited restrictions on square footage may proved smarter in the long term. Perhaps, but Canada has no ability to enforce that. That would fall under the purview of the provinces, who have likely passed that down to the municipalities.
nucleardog 5y ago
> I'm interested to see how this plays out. Nothing will happen. All it accomplishes is reducing competition for local investors (which is probably why this is the solution they've chosen--local investors vote, contribute to campaigns, and make up something like 2/3 of our politicians). We have more than enough local investors with enough capital and assets to sustain the high prices and continue driving absurd growth. They've tried similar (but less extreme) solutions in places like Vancouver. Huge taxes on foreign purchasers. Property price growth slowed a couple percent... for about 6 months, by which point it was back to doing what it was before even as the tax was expanded. The only thing driving the slowdown was probably uncertainty.

BlargMcLarg 5y ago

Prediction: barely anything happens and problems continue to rise as population numbers have yet to peak and the people who are struggling most with this problem, the working class, continues to lose wealth relatively to the upper classes. Almost every country with these problems has similar symptoms and the problem could've been seen coming from decades away. Tackling these things requires far, far more input from governing bodies. Input they aren't willing to give.

beaconstudios 5y ago
I can see a resurgence of social democracy coming soon as the problems with things like real estate investment and unrestricted emissions come home to roost. We've already seen a little bit of that with Bernie Sanders.
- BlargMcLarg 5y ago
  I can't speak for the US, but here in NL, I don't see things changing very soon for various reasons. Very few voters actually care to solve the issue. Home owners still far outweigh those who don't. Quite a few of the older generation bank on their property/properties to carry them through retirement. No one wants to see their house go under, even if they can realistically endure it without severe consequences. There's no incentive to increase interest rates, but banks obviously don't want to carry more risks, so individuals aren't getting the same mortgage-to-house price ratio as before. "Figure it out" mentality. Even if there is a national or even global trend, responsibility to solve the issue is pushed onto the individual. Or worse, global mentality shifts to accept what is going on. "Yeah buying was normal back in the day, now you rent. Get over it." Grandfathering and "empathy for the fortunate". Yes, I get it, you don't want your lucky uncle who worked a bad job for decades to lose his retirement. You don't want Mr. John in his McMansion on the other side of the road to lose his fortune. Almost no one wants to be the bad guy. Yet special ruling to keep the "haves" in their position continue to be placed at cost of the "have nots". No one wants to hurt anyone. As a result, the solution often seem to be continuing the same fruitless endeavor which changes nothing for the "have nots". As mentioned before, population has yet to peak. Governments are still incentivizing people to come in or reproduce above replacement rate, despite it becoming evident we're just not capable of handling them. In theory we can handle way higher populations. In practice, there's no incentive to do so without severely punishing the working class further. We're slowly normalizing a cyberpunk dystopia and most people seem okay with it. "At least you have iphones" is going to define gen Z and gen alpha at this point.
  - beaconstudios 5y ago
    > "Figure it out" mentality. Even if there is a national or even global trend, responsibility to solve the issue is pushed onto the individual. Or worse, global mentality shifts to accept what is going on. "Yeah buying was normal back in the day, now you rent. Get over it." This is a symptom of neoliberal ideology - the acceptance of any market outcome, no matter how negative, as "natural" and to be accepted or at least left unchanged. That's the predominant narrative, but I think that could change. The reason I have some hope for a social-democratic turnaround is that the US has cultural hegemony, what happens there is broadcasted across the world through American media and other cultural exports. Currently, younger generations are engaged in a revival of left politics; this will almost definitely influence American politics in the coming years, and I'm hoping us Europeans (I'm from the UK) see some downwind benefit from that. There's already some smatterings of progressive politics in the UK, for instance - probably on a level comparable to 2012-2016 in the US. We even had our own Bernie in the form of Corbyn, and our far right resurgence is running low on steam thankfully.
  - harambae 5y ago
    > There's no incentive to increase interest rates At some point the market decides this, if inflation persists. BND (NASDAQ) is already down over 9% YTD and that's supposed to be the safe half of split stock/bond investing. Despite how some people seem to view the Federal Reserve (and whatever the central bank of Canada is) neither country is a full on centrally planned economy, at least not yet.
Workaccount2 5y ago
The problem is selling real estate as "Surefire gains that never go down" and people pinning their entire life to the value of their home. This leads to people who rabidly defend the systems that increase their property value, and these people also tend to be the local voting majority, so they can shoot down anything that they don't like. The solution is declaring emergency powers to use eminent domain to seize unused property and build medium to high density housing on it. Yeah we'll have a few 6-fig account managers handcuffing themselves to bulldozers, but eventually it will get through.
- usrn 5y ago
  Before you do that you better make damned sure you're doing the right thing. You're literally kicking people out of their homes and forcing them to move. We did that to the Indians a couple centuries ago and the consequences for both sides were not great. We did that to Mexican migratory workers last century and the result was the almost complete destruction of a country that shares a large land border with us. We're only beginning to experience the consequences from that.
  - Workaccount2 5y ago
    You're not kicking anyone out of anything. Uninhabited properties are bought by the government. Houses up for sale are gov purchased and turned into mutli-family. Basically the government is turned into the sole buyer who can also ignore zoning and resident complaints.
    - usrn 5y ago
      That's not what your comment said.
      - Workaccount2 5y ago
        > eminent domain to seize unused property
usrn 5y ago
Domestic population in developed countries hit their peak a while ago. The demand side here is all immigration and I wish people would talk about that before they talk about bulldozing neighborhoods.
- BlargMcLarg 5y ago
  Of course. But realistically, no one wants to deal with the inevitability of ageing populations having to either take the bullet and accept they were sold a bunch of lies, or causing the working class to crumble under the collective weight of all who depend on them. Most immigration and pushing for higher birthrates is just that, an admission by politicians they don't want to deal with the problem and passing it onto the next reigning party. That said, it's nowhere near the sole contributor. Quite a few countries have very low immigrant numbers along with low birthrates and still face soaring house prices. Rampant individualism doesn't help, either.
  - usrn 5y ago
    Which countries are you talking about? I'd be very interested in seeing that.

randomdata 5y ago

> Zoning denser housing or placing limited restrictions on square footage may proved smarter in the long term. Perhaps, but Canada has no ability to enforce that. That would fall under the purview of the provinces, who have likely passed that down to the municipalities.

nucleardog 5y ago

> I'm interested to see how this plays out. Nothing will happen. All it accomplishes is reducing competition for local investors (which is probably why this is the solution they've chosen--local investors vote, contribute to campaigns, and make up something like 2/3 of our politicians). We have more than enough local investors with enough capital and assets to sustain the high prices and continue driving absurd growth. They've tried similar (but less extreme) solutions in places like Vancouver. Huge taxes on foreign purchasers. Property price growth slowed a couple percent... for about 6 months, by which point it was back to doing what it was before even as the tax was expanded. The only thing driving the slowdown was probably uncertainty.