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I don't think the Made-in-China Tesla's ever suffered the build quality issues the Fremont built cars did. There have been minor issues. I think the "low price

I don't think the Made-in-China Tesla's ever suffered the build quality issues the Fremont built cars did. There have been minor issues. I think the "low price point" EV is a myth in the short term. I don't think there is enough materials to make the volume required at that price point. This seems to be why Tesla put a hold on their $25k model - which they now seem to be making a "dedicated robotaxi" and betting on solving self-driving.

AtlasBarfed 5y ago
IMO the 25k model is on hold because: 1) they are just scaling existing models (same reason roadster / semi / cybertruck is on hold) 2) the chinese already own that price point worldwide, and Tesla likely can't compete in that segment, well, or the margins aren't worth the effort right now. As for limits on materials, as I described, Sodium-Ion and LFP are the path for 10-20 million BEVs per year (or... 3x-5x that in PHEVs) over the next four years. Lithium is not the major limiter, additional sources (Salton Sea, many others) will come online, but Cobalt/Nickel for LMC chemistries are. Long term most of the global production of consumer vehicles (~80 million/year in 2021) should be doable with 180-200 wh/kg sodium ion technologies, while 260 wh/kg LFP, 300-400 wh/kg LMC, and 400-??? densities from Li-S/solid state battery can address long haul shipping, sports cars, trucks with towing, etc. To emphasize, that's is why these viable densities of Sodium Ion and LFP chemistries are so important. IF Tesla did achieve usable robotaxi self-driving (and while I find their current achievements amazing, it's still fundamentally short of the mark), much like IBM and Microsoft in the early days, it would be stupid to limit their software to Teslas only. Release the software for licensees and make at 3-5 grand on EVERY car.
- onethought 5y ago
  Even off raw materials are solved… that’s still a lot of battery factories that need to come online. I know there is rapid growth here… but the timelines feel insanely aggressive… like everyone needs to suddenly do Tesla level growth having never done that kind of growth before

AtlasBarfed 5y ago

IMO the 25k model is on hold because: 1) they are just scaling existing models (same reason roadster / semi / cybertruck is on hold) 2) the chinese already own that price point worldwide, and Tesla likely can't compete in that segment, well, or the margins aren't worth the effort right now. As for limits on materials, as I described, Sodium-Ion and LFP are the path for 10-20 million BEVs per year (or... 3x-5x that in PHEVs) over the next four years. Lithium is not the major limiter, additional sources (Salton Sea, many others) will come online, but Cobalt/Nickel for LMC chemistries are. Long term most of the global production of consumer vehicles (~80 million/year in 2021) should be doable with 180-200 wh/kg sodium ion technologies, while 260 wh/kg LFP, 300-400 wh/kg LMC, and 400-??? densities from Li-S/solid state battery can address long haul shipping, sports cars, trucks with towing, etc. To emphasize, that's is why these viable densities of Sodium Ion and LFP chemistries are so important. IF Tesla did achieve usable robotaxi self-driving (and while I find their current achievements amazing, it's still fundamentally short of the mark), much like IBM and Microsoft in the early days, it would be stupid to limit their software to Teslas only. Release the software for licensees and make at 3-5 grand on EVERY car.

onethought 5y ago
Even off raw materials are solved… that’s still a lot of battery factories that need to come online. I know there is rapid growth here… but the timelines feel insanely aggressive… like everyone needs to suddenly do Tesla level growth having never done that kind of growth before