3 ms·

The long haul people should be served by the 100 mile PHEV. the 230 WH/kg should enable the 100 mile PHEV I think, although I haven't done the math on that. I

The long haul people should be served by the 100 mile PHEV. the 230 WH/kg should enable the 100 mile PHEV I think, although I haven't done the math on that. I'm in the midwest, and while superchargers will probably take care of my needs (I don't tow), but PHEVs should serve all those people. A 400 mile LFP should be doable for the pickup truck when we hit 260 wh/kg, maybe 500 mile. And if Li-Sulfer or SSB hits, then those people will be served all-electric. The infrastructure will come around. And recharge times are something that when viewed from a total systems level with home charging is actually less than gassing up, and when chargers are available basically in every parking lot. The fact that the fringe cases are hyped up is just astroturfing, and it is a symptom of a dying campaign. The economics are behind alternative energy and BEVs, there's nothing big oil can do anymore. From here the vehicles fall under price points that ICEs will never compete with, and even the "middle used market" may get chased out by cheaper chinese entrants.

ggm 5y ago
BYD is about to release its ~ $45k AUD car in Australia. 1500 units sold out almost immediately. MG, which is another Chinese manufacturer these days is expected to price-match. Hyundai (the Ioniq) may price match. The BYD has really good range for price (400km NEDC) https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-dolphin-electric-city-car-coming-to-australia-with-new-name/ https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-dolphin-electric-city-car-... If the federal and/or state governments go with some price support, and unit costs to a customer on-road get to $30k, I would think seriously about trading in my Hyundai i30 with 5 years left on its 7 year fixed price maintenance/warranty. I got a powerpoint fitted in the unit "just in case" although with low amps, it would be trickle charge only. The "dolphin" BYD is releasing is comparable size inside to my i30. Tesla isn't responding to price competition, they see enough demand at their AUD $70k+ pricepoint. They're targetting a different market, one which Volvo, Mercedes, BMW &c occupy with high-end ICE cars (although I am told the build quality on a Tesla is below par, even if the driving experience is good)
- onethought 5y ago
  I don't think the Made-in-China Tesla's ever suffered the build quality issues the Fremont built cars did. There have been minor issues. I think the "low price point" EV is a myth in the short term. I don't think there is enough materials to make the volume required at that price point. This seems to be why Tesla put a hold on their $25k model - which they now seem to be making a "dedicated robotaxi" and betting on solving self-driving.
  - AtlasBarfed 5y ago
    IMO the 25k model is on hold because: 1) they are just scaling existing models (same reason roadster / semi / cybertruck is on hold) 2) the chinese already own that price point worldwide, and Tesla likely can't compete in that segment, well, or the margins aren't worth the effort right now. As for limits on materials, as I described, Sodium-Ion and LFP are the path for 10-20 million BEVs per year (or... 3x-5x that in PHEVs) over the next four years. Lithium is not the major limiter, additional sources (Salton Sea, many others) will come online, but Cobalt/Nickel for LMC chemistries are. Long term most of the global production of consumer vehicles (~80 million/year in 2021) should be doable with 180-200 wh/kg sodium ion technologies, while 260 wh/kg LFP, 300-400 wh/kg LMC, and 400-??? densities from Li-S/solid state battery can address long haul shipping, sports cars, trucks with towing, etc. To emphasize, that's is why these viable densities of Sodium Ion and LFP chemistries are so important. IF Tesla did achieve usable robotaxi self-driving (and while I find their current achievements amazing, it's still fundamentally short of the mark), much like IBM and Microsoft in the early days, it would be stupid to limit their software to Teslas only. Release the software for licensees and make at 3-5 grand on EVERY car.
    - onethought 5y ago
      Even off raw materials are solved… that’s still a lot of battery factories that need to come online. I know there is rapid growth here… but the timelines feel insanely aggressive… like everyone needs to suddenly do Tesla level growth having never done that kind of growth before

ggm 5y ago

BYD is about to release its ~ $45k AUD car in Australia. 1500 units sold out almost immediately. MG, which is another Chinese manufacturer these days is expected to price-match. Hyundai (the Ioniq) may price match. The BYD has really good range for price (400km NEDC) https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-dolphin-electric-city-car-coming-to-australia-with-new-name/ https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-dolphin-electric-city-car-... If the federal and/or state governments go with some price support, and unit costs to a customer on-road get to $30k, I would think seriously about trading in my Hyundai i30 with 5 years left on its 7 year fixed price maintenance/warranty. I got a powerpoint fitted in the unit "just in case" although with low amps, it would be trickle charge only. The "dolphin" BYD is releasing is comparable size inside to my i30. Tesla isn't responding to price competition, they see enough demand at their AUD $70k+ pricepoint. They're targetting a different market, one which Volvo, Mercedes, BMW &c occupy with high-end ICE cars (although I am told the build quality on a Tesla is below par, even if the driving experience is good)

onethought 5y ago
I don't think the Made-in-China Tesla's ever suffered the build quality issues the Fremont built cars did. There have been minor issues. I think the "low price point" EV is a myth in the short term. I don't think there is enough materials to make the volume required at that price point. This seems to be why Tesla put a hold on their $25k model - which they now seem to be making a "dedicated robotaxi" and betting on solving self-driving.
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  IMO the 25k model is on hold because: 1) they are just scaling existing models (same reason roadster / semi / cybertruck is on hold) 2) the chinese already own that price point worldwide, and Tesla likely can't compete in that segment, well, or the margins aren't worth the effort right now. As for limits on materials, as I described, Sodium-Ion and LFP are the path for 10-20 million BEVs per year (or... 3x-5x that in PHEVs) over the next four years. Lithium is not the major limiter, additional sources (Salton Sea, many others) will come online, but Cobalt/Nickel for LMC chemistries are. Long term most of the global production of consumer vehicles (~80 million/year in 2021) should be doable with 180-200 wh/kg sodium ion technologies, while 260 wh/kg LFP, 300-400 wh/kg LMC, and 400-??? densities from Li-S/solid state battery can address long haul shipping, sports cars, trucks with towing, etc. To emphasize, that's is why these viable densities of Sodium Ion and LFP chemistries are so important. IF Tesla did achieve usable robotaxi self-driving (and while I find their current achievements amazing, it's still fundamentally short of the mark), much like IBM and Microsoft in the early days, it would be stupid to limit their software to Teslas only. Release the software for licensees and make at 3-5 grand on EVERY car.
  - onethought 5y ago
    Even off raw materials are solved… that’s still a lot of battery factories that need to come online. I know there is rapid growth here… but the timelines feel insanely aggressive… like everyone needs to suddenly do Tesla level growth having never done that kind of growth before