3 ms·

Sodium Ion batteries are approaching somewhere in the 120-160 wh/kg in production, per CATL. I believe 200 wh/kg is on the industry "roadmap" in 3-5 years. I b

Sodium Ion batteries are approaching somewhere in the 120-160 wh/kg in production, per CATL. I believe 200 wh/kg is on the industry "roadmap" in 3-5 years. I believe Sodium Ion is like LFP in its safety with thermal runaway, so it, like LFP, doesn't require as much cooling and equipment overhead so its Cell-to-Module, or even better, Cell-to-Pack is bettery than cobalt/nickel li-ion chemistries. A sodium ion battery that CATL says it is putting in production is sufficient for low-end consumer EV transport: the 100 mile city car, possibly a 200-mile one with good drivetrain design, if the Cell-to-Pack napkin math works out correctly. Concurrent with this, LFP batteries are reaching 200-230 wh/kg this year, which thanks to their bettery thermal protection, means the Cell-to-Pack density should be "good to go" for almost all Tesla car ranges today (my napkin math on Cell-to-Pack shows 400 miles for a model 3 for 230 wh/kg LFP). The extended range Tesla vehicles are overkill for 90% of world drivers, and at least 80% of Americans. The 300 mile range is the perfect range for the "next 10 years". The napkin math then says you can combine sodium ion and LFP to get to 300 mile pack designs, and no cobalt/nickel, reduced lithium from sodium ion, probably a 50/50 split or similar. This is for the next 2-4 years of mainstream car / EV production scaling, which is may be the most important for kickstarting true widespread EV and averting climate change that we have left. Hopefully in 2-4 years we get the following (per roadmaps): - 260+ wh/kg LFP - 180-200 wh/kg sodium ion That will mean all-sodium 300 mile range cars, mixed sodium/LFP for long range, light trucks, possibly long haul shipping + container ships. If we get 400 wk/kg or better solid state battery or Li-S, then all the better. Mix in those as needed, or maybe short haul aviation becomes possible, but the important thing is that for the majority of ground transport, sodium ion and lfp will serve to scale out huge portions of carbon emissions from transportation. wh/kg cited are all cell densities, but there is reference to Cell-to-pack being 90% of cell density for LFP and Sodium Ion approaches, which is where are the napkin math begins.

ggm 5y ago
I managed my lifestyle to need <20k per day, almost per week, with occasional 150k runs. So your goal nicely covers my needs. Down here in OZ the discussion is dominated by people who are frankly on the margins, who routinely drive 100+km per day and who tow high loads for a living, or work rural and remote. I totally accept they have problems with this model, but I wish they'd be more overt they realize just how marginal they are to the vast bulk of urban Australia, who live within 50km of their job. The strongest case they have, is that all of us want the freedom of not being constrained by range, however rarely we use it. Somehow the 45min recharge ruins the experience. I personally think battery swap was a model which got us there but Musk drove the (current) industry to another place, and nobody in the west is seriously offering it, outside of special needs like buses and trucks. It's alive and well in the e-scooter space in much of Asia. If your life involves driving the birdsville track every day, you are not the target of energy transition to batteries.
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  The long haul people should be served by the 100 mile PHEV. the 230 WH/kg should enable the 100 mile PHEV I think, although I haven't done the math on that. I'm in the midwest, and while superchargers will probably take care of my needs (I don't tow), but PHEVs should serve all those people. A 400 mile LFP should be doable for the pickup truck when we hit 260 wh/kg, maybe 500 mile. And if Li-Sulfer or SSB hits, then those people will be served all-electric. The infrastructure will come around. And recharge times are something that when viewed from a total systems level with home charging is actually less than gassing up, and when chargers are available basically in every parking lot. The fact that the fringe cases are hyped up is just astroturfing, and it is a symptom of a dying campaign. The economics are behind alternative energy and BEVs, there's nothing big oil can do anymore. From here the vehicles fall under price points that ICEs will never compete with, and even the "middle used market" may get chased out by cheaper chinese entrants.
  - ggm 5y ago
    BYD is about to release its ~ $45k AUD car in Australia. 1500 units sold out almost immediately. MG, which is another Chinese manufacturer these days is expected to price-match. Hyundai (the Ioniq) may price match. The BYD has really good range for price (400km NEDC) https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-dolphin-electric-city-car-coming-to-australia-with-new-name/ https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-dolphin-electric-city-car-... If the federal and/or state governments go with some price support, and unit costs to a customer on-road get to $30k, I would think seriously about trading in my Hyundai i30 with 5 years left on its 7 year fixed price maintenance/warranty. I got a powerpoint fitted in the unit "just in case" although with low amps, it would be trickle charge only. The "dolphin" BYD is releasing is comparable size inside to my i30. Tesla isn't responding to price competition, they see enough demand at their AUD $70k+ pricepoint. They're targetting a different market, one which Volvo, Mercedes, BMW &c occupy with high-end ICE cars (although I am told the build quality on a Tesla is below par, even if the driving experience is good)
    - onethought 5y ago
      I don't think the Made-in-China Tesla's ever suffered the build quality issues the Fremont built cars did. There have been minor issues. I think the "low price point" EV is a myth in the short term. I don't think there is enough materials to make the volume required at that price point. This seems to be why Tesla put a hold on their $25k model - which they now seem to be making a "dedicated robotaxi" and betting on solving self-driving.
algo_trader 5y ago
> Hopefully in 2-4 years we get the following IMO, current LFP batteries are already "good enough" and "cheap enough" for 80% of car sales. Reportly in 2021 China, 5000-cycle LFP at ~$70/khw. Chop off 1000 cycles, add 20% price margins, and it is still good enough. If you could conjure up x10 manufacturing scale, you would still sell every single cell. It will be easier to improve charging infra, that to improve NMC or stablize sodium. /end of rant
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  totally agree, but lithium supply may still block the REALLY big volumes, so 160 wh/kg sodium ion being as good as LFP from a year or two back means that isn't an issue. At this point, it should be more mundane factory scaling problems. The world governments really need to get onboard with pushing worldwide manufacturing of these cells and modules. Tesla's Berlin delays were shameful. If you are running coal plants, you as a government can't say anything about environmental damage from a new BEV or battery plant with a straight face. I'm thankful that at least science and technology have given humanity a path forward that is clearly economically superior, because it is clear that humanity's collective political governance is incompetent. The fact you can take decades of global warming science, point out the end state and dangers, and the effective intelligence of worldwide leaders over that time is less than the intellectual and logical capacity of a third grader, even one that has missed their nap, is one of the most depressing things in the world. I'm loathe to credit the Chinese government with anything based on their current leadership's autocratic and genocidal leanings, but their policies subsidizing battery and solar cell production have been the only effective governmental level environmental policy in the global warming era.

ggm 5y ago

I managed my lifestyle to need <20k per day, almost per week, with occasional 150k runs. So your goal nicely covers my needs. Down here in OZ the discussion is dominated by people who are frankly on the margins, who routinely drive 100+km per day and who tow high loads for a living, or work rural and remote. I totally accept they have problems with this model, but I wish they'd be more overt they realize just how marginal they are to the vast bulk of urban Australia, who live within 50km of their job. The strongest case they have, is that all of us want the freedom of not being constrained by range, however rarely we use it. Somehow the 45min recharge ruins the experience. I personally think battery swap was a model which got us there but Musk drove the (current) industry to another place, and nobody in the west is seriously offering it, outside of special needs like buses and trucks. It's alive and well in the e-scooter space in much of Asia. If your life involves driving the birdsville track every day, you are not the target of energy transition to batteries.

AtlasBarfed 5y ago
The long haul people should be served by the 100 mile PHEV. the 230 WH/kg should enable the 100 mile PHEV I think, although I haven't done the math on that. I'm in the midwest, and while superchargers will probably take care of my needs (I don't tow), but PHEVs should serve all those people. A 400 mile LFP should be doable for the pickup truck when we hit 260 wh/kg, maybe 500 mile. And if Li-Sulfer or SSB hits, then those people will be served all-electric. The infrastructure will come around. And recharge times are something that when viewed from a total systems level with home charging is actually less than gassing up, and when chargers are available basically in every parking lot. The fact that the fringe cases are hyped up is just astroturfing, and it is a symptom of a dying campaign. The economics are behind alternative energy and BEVs, there's nothing big oil can do anymore. From here the vehicles fall under price points that ICEs will never compete with, and even the "middle used market" may get chased out by cheaper chinese entrants.
- ggm 5y ago
  BYD is about to release its ~ $45k AUD car in Australia. 1500 units sold out almost immediately. MG, which is another Chinese manufacturer these days is expected to price-match. Hyundai (the Ioniq) may price match. The BYD has really good range for price (400km NEDC) https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-dolphin-electric-city-car-coming-to-australia-with-new-name/ https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-dolphin-electric-city-car-... If the federal and/or state governments go with some price support, and unit costs to a customer on-road get to $30k, I would think seriously about trading in my Hyundai i30 with 5 years left on its 7 year fixed price maintenance/warranty. I got a powerpoint fitted in the unit "just in case" although with low amps, it would be trickle charge only. The "dolphin" BYD is releasing is comparable size inside to my i30. Tesla isn't responding to price competition, they see enough demand at their AUD $70k+ pricepoint. They're targetting a different market, one which Volvo, Mercedes, BMW &c occupy with high-end ICE cars (although I am told the build quality on a Tesla is below par, even if the driving experience is good)
  - onethought 5y ago
    I don't think the Made-in-China Tesla's ever suffered the build quality issues the Fremont built cars did. There have been minor issues. I think the "low price point" EV is a myth in the short term. I don't think there is enough materials to make the volume required at that price point. This seems to be why Tesla put a hold on their $25k model - which they now seem to be making a "dedicated robotaxi" and betting on solving self-driving.

algo_trader 5y ago

> Hopefully in 2-4 years we get the following IMO, current LFP batteries are already "good enough" and "cheap enough" for 80% of car sales. Reportly in 2021 China, 5000-cycle LFP at ~$70/khw. Chop off 1000 cycles, add 20% price margins, and it is still good enough. If you could conjure up x10 manufacturing scale, you would still sell every single cell. It will be easier to improve charging infra, that to improve NMC or stablize sodium. /end of rant

AtlasBarfed 5y ago
totally agree, but lithium supply may still block the REALLY big volumes, so 160 wh/kg sodium ion being as good as LFP from a year or two back means that isn't an issue. At this point, it should be more mundane factory scaling problems. The world governments really need to get onboard with pushing worldwide manufacturing of these cells and modules. Tesla's Berlin delays were shameful. If you are running coal plants, you as a government can't say anything about environmental damage from a new BEV or battery plant with a straight face. I'm thankful that at least science and technology have given humanity a path forward that is clearly economically superior, because it is clear that humanity's collective political governance is incompetent. The fact you can take decades of global warming science, point out the end state and dangers, and the effective intelligence of worldwide leaders over that time is less than the intellectual and logical capacity of a third grader, even one that has missed their nap, is one of the most depressing things in the world. I'm loathe to credit the Chinese government with anything based on their current leadership's autocratic and genocidal leanings, but their policies subsidizing battery and solar cell production have been the only effective governmental level environmental policy in the global warming era.