3 ms·

> From the Real Life World®©™ instead of the advertised world. That's the world I live in, but you are describing a world that's totally unlike it. Is "Real Li

> From the Real Life World®©™ instead of the advertised world. That's the world I live in, but you are describing a world that's totally unlike it. Is "Real Life World" a fictional world you've invented and trademarked with a nonsensical name in order to confuse readers? > Did you ever have a lithium battery of any kind for more than 10 years? Yes, I have a 2012 Nissan LEAF which has a 24 kWh lithium battery pack. It is still working perfectly now after 10 years. I also have a 2018 Nissan LEAF, a 2019 Kia Niro plug-in hybrid, and a 2021 Volkswagen ID.4. Suffice it to say, I have some experience with owning and charging electric cars in the real world. > 100k miles came quickly for anyone who use a car for real, in 4-5 years actually BTW The average car in your country reaches 100K miles when it's 14 years old, and in the US when it's over 8 years old. > Just to gives you a realistic dimension... if I count consumed diesel in kWh (around 1000kWh/month) You lead with "realistic", then gave a figure equal to driving about 4000 miles in an electric car every month. This is not realistic. Last month my electric cars consumed less than 150 kWh, or the equivalent of plugging in a small single room space heater for 3 hours per day. This fuel cost me about $20. > If today all USA cars switch to BEV the USA electricity grid will collapse in few hours and can't recover even with continuous rolling blackouts for years Converting 80% of all passenger vehicles to electric would only add about 10% to total electric consumption. Studies have been done, the grid would be fine.

kkfx 5y ago
> That's the world I live in From what I know, having experimented and seen that's can hardly been. Perhaps you use cars very little so they last longer and traveling just for short trips makes them usable for you even when they can just run 50 miles. But while that's a perfectly legit use case it's far from the mean use cases for all humans... > Yes, I have a 2012 Nissan LEAF which has a 24 kWh lithium battery pack. It is still working perfectly now after 10 years. After how many miles/km if I can ask? > The average car in your country reaches 100K miles when it's 14 years old, and in the US when it's over 8 years old. The average is meaningless, people living in major cities are a huge percentage of the population and use cars far less since in dense EU cities cars are a needed nightmare because just traveling 20km (~12 miles) demand 30'+ in good days and sometimes, few time per month, can demand hours. While people living outside those major cities travel much, much more. Where I live most travel around 50-60km/day (31-37 miles) around ~10+% travel 100-120km/day (62-75 miles) on average. I have few neighbors who bought Tesla, I see how much their batteries wire out, surely not linearly, but at a rate with their usage, that will make them useless in 8 years, they might last [1] 10+ years but with too little range to be useful. Not only, resale value is essentially zero here. No one want second-hand EVs, no one trust them. Use them to extract the battery to complement a domestic p.v. plant it theoretically possible but impractical since those batteries are not made in easy-to-extract modules, of course their are small cylinders inside, but practically recycle them is costly and complex enough that on scale the price of a new battery will not be much different than of an already dead one, counting it's residual life and fire risk. > You lead with "realistic", then gave a figure equal to driving about 4000 miles in an electric car every month. Diesel is rated 10.7 kWh/l (40.5 kWh/us gallons) I use around 60 liters/month (15.85 gal/month). You might counter that electric motors are more efficient BUT in practice they are just a little bit more because: - I produce energy from p.v. so hopefully recharging out of my micro-plant means from DC (panels) to AC (solar inverter, ~89% efficiency) to DC again (car inverter-charger, probably around 60% efficient) means a big loss of energy; - battery itself is around 90% efficient - motors inverter from battery also loose power Giving a scientific estimate is not easy, you also need to take climate into account, cars HVAC usage, ... but I think estimate a real total efficiency around 15% plus than an equivalent ICE car is realistic enough. > Last month my electric cars consumed less than 150 kWh I do not own and EV but I driven some, my mileage declared by their on-board systems was 150-210Wh/km driving normally, witch means ~270-378kWh/month. Assuming a similar consumption for you that means ~33km/day (~20.5 miles/day) witch is very, very little for anyone living outside a city. > Converting 80% of all passenger vehicles to electric would only add about 10% to total electric consumption. Studies have been done, the grid would be fine. Seen how much blackouts happen also in developed countries from Texas to Tokyo region just to cite some famous... I doubt that electricity grid can even satisfy actual demands. Since few years, France the most nuclearized country in the world have done very small rolling blackouts to remain at 50Hz. Swiss another big producer of electricity have had issues as Norway due to reduced hydro production. Just in the last years, with not much EV nor extreme weathers. If you imaging a "country wide smart grid" with cars connected to quickly step in if needed... That's a dream. Having a p.v. with lithium storage I see how quick a modern inverter is and the answer is not enough. If you add signaling and relevant vulnerabilities on scale instead of stabilize the big smart grid you crate continuous blackouts. Car's inverter will ripple anytime the load go down, fail to sustain frequency quick enough every time the load ramp up. Consider a thing: EV actually can recharge super-slowly a 3kW/monophase or slowly at 7kW/monophase or 22kW/triphase (mandatory here for new houses and apartments parking since 2020 or so), actual grid consider around 6kW mean power per household, most apartments are 9kW maximum, most homes 12kW single-phase or if they have electrical heating, SPA, ... maximum 36kW. In some countries like Italy most households have just 3.3kW. And our grids are already in a tough situation now. Consider that most will charge their car in the evening, no signaling infra exists to tells cars inverter when start to balance the charge in the night, no way to tell cars "when I need the battery full". P.v. start to be popular but so far most parking lot do not have p.v. and even those who have it can't recharge out of it more than few cars. Again no infra is in place and can't be done quickly. Lithium earth resources are essentially unknown, but current estimates are not much optimistic and we still do not know how to recycle batteries. With the actual chemistry 80% of private vehicles can be EVs around 2050 if we push WFH much, something that start to happen just a little bit, with many resistances and schizophrenic behaviors. That's what I call reality vs advertisement... [1] if internal flash storage do not wire out before, https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-older-teslas-due-to-excessive-data-logging-report https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-... or an OTA upgrade block them https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/2/17413732/tesla-over-the-air-software-updates-brakes https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/2/17413732/tesla-over-the-ai... or some other costly issue happen, costly enough to make convenient giving up

kkfx 5y ago

> That's the world I live in From what I know, having experimented and seen that's can hardly been. Perhaps you use cars very little so they last longer and traveling just for short trips makes them usable for you even when they can just run 50 miles. But while that's a perfectly legit use case it's far from the mean use cases for all humans... > Yes, I have a 2012 Nissan LEAF which has a 24 kWh lithium battery pack. It is still working perfectly now after 10 years. After how many miles/km if I can ask? > The average car in your country reaches 100K miles when it's 14 years old, and in the US when it's over 8 years old. The average is meaningless, people living in major cities are a huge percentage of the population and use cars far less since in dense EU cities cars are a needed nightmare because just traveling 20km (~12 miles) demand 30'+ in good days and sometimes, few time per month, can demand hours. While people living outside those major cities travel much, much more. Where I live most travel around 50-60km/day (31-37 miles) around ~10+% travel 100-120km/day (62-75 miles) on average. I have few neighbors who bought Tesla, I see how much their batteries wire out, surely not linearly, but at a rate with their usage, that will make them useless in 8 years, they might last [1] 10+ years but with too little range to be useful. Not only, resale value is essentially zero here. No one want second-hand EVs, no one trust them. Use them to extract the battery to complement a domestic p.v. plant it theoretically possible but impractical since those batteries are not made in easy-to-extract modules, of course their are small cylinders inside, but practically recycle them is costly and complex enough that on scale the price of a new battery will not be much different than of an already dead one, counting it's residual life and fire risk. > You lead with "realistic", then gave a figure equal to driving about 4000 miles in an electric car every month. Diesel is rated 10.7 kWh/l (40.5 kWh/us gallons) I use around 60 liters/month (15.85 gal/month). You might counter that electric motors are more efficient BUT in practice they are just a little bit more because: - I produce energy from p.v. so hopefully recharging out of my micro-plant means from DC (panels) to AC (solar inverter, ~89% efficiency) to DC again (car inverter-charger, probably around 60% efficient) means a big loss of energy; - battery itself is around 90% efficient - motors inverter from battery also loose power Giving a scientific estimate is not easy, you also need to take climate into account, cars HVAC usage, ... but I think estimate a real total efficiency around 15% plus than an equivalent ICE car is realistic enough. > Last month my electric cars consumed less than 150 kWh I do not own and EV but I driven some, my mileage declared by their on-board systems was 150-210Wh/km driving normally, witch means ~270-378kWh/month. Assuming a similar consumption for you that means ~33km/day (~20.5 miles/day) witch is very, very little for anyone living outside a city. > Converting 80% of all passenger vehicles to electric would only add about 10% to total electric consumption. Studies have been done, the grid would be fine. Seen how much blackouts happen also in developed countries from Texas to Tokyo region just to cite some famous... I doubt that electricity grid can even satisfy actual demands. Since few years, France the most nuclearized country in the world have done very small rolling blackouts to remain at 50Hz. Swiss another big producer of electricity have had issues as Norway due to reduced hydro production. Just in the last years, with not much EV nor extreme weathers. If you imaging a "country wide smart grid" with cars connected to quickly step in if needed... That's a dream. Having a p.v. with lithium storage I see how quick a modern inverter is and the answer is not enough. If you add signaling and relevant vulnerabilities on scale instead of stabilize the big smart grid you crate continuous blackouts. Car's inverter will ripple anytime the load go down, fail to sustain frequency quick enough every time the load ramp up. Consider a thing: EV actually can recharge super-slowly a 3kW/monophase or slowly at 7kW/monophase or 22kW/triphase (mandatory here for new houses and apartments parking since 2020 or so), actual grid consider around 6kW mean power per household, most apartments are 9kW maximum, most homes 12kW single-phase or if they have electrical heating, SPA, ... maximum 36kW. In some countries like Italy most households have just 3.3kW. And our grids are already in a tough situation now. Consider that most will charge their car in the evening, no signaling infra exists to tells cars inverter when start to balance the charge in the night, no way to tell cars "when I need the battery full". P.v. start to be popular but so far most parking lot do not have p.v. and even those who have it can't recharge out of it more than few cars. Again no infra is in place and can't be done quickly. Lithium earth resources are essentially unknown, but current estimates are not much optimistic and we still do not know how to recycle batteries. With the actual chemistry 80% of private vehicles can be EVs around 2050 if we push WFH much, something that start to happen just a little bit, with many resistances and schizophrenic behaviors. That's what I call reality vs advertisement... [1] if internal flash storage do not wire out before, https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-older-teslas-due-to-excessive-data-logging-report https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-... or an OTA upgrade block them https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/2/17413732/tesla-over-the-air-software-updates-brakes https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/2/17413732/tesla-over-the-ai... or some other costly issue happen, costly enough to make convenient giving up