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"refueling infrastructure (power grids), battery availability, consumer acceptance, and affordability are huge constraints which must be figured out". Valid co

"refueling infrastructure (power grids), battery availability, consumer acceptance, and affordability are huge constraints which must be figured out". Valid concerns. Especially the ability of the grid to handle all of the extra cars. Both in terms of producing enough electricity and being able to deliver it.

cowmix 5y ago
Just a note, it takes A LOT of energy (and electricity!) to refine oil into gasoline. In CA for instance, the power it takes to refine fuel could, almost, be used watt for watt to power EVs going the same distance. You can also add in the energy costs to extract, transport, store, etc fuel too (but EVs have a lot of that overhead too).
- mywittyname 5y ago
  Do you have a citation for this? Not that I don't believe you (it's actually a very plausible statement), but I have so many questions on the technical details here.
- PheonixPharts 5y ago
  You seem to be implying that increased EV usage will dramatically decrease the need for oil refinement. Do you have any evidence of this? In just the US, EV purchases have grown nearly exponentially over the past decade [0]. However total petroleum consumption in the US has slowly but steadily risen [1] during the same period (excluding, of course, the pandemic). Gasoline consumption has remained roughly flat. There's a common and understandable assumption that "more green technology usage means lower GHG emissions" but in reality there is little evidence to support this. Globally, green energy usage has only served to supplement energy demands. Since the industrial revolution we, as a species, have never reduced our usage of an energy source [3] Surprisingly we still burn as much wood as we did when every home was heated by wood burning. The only dips we ever see in GHG emissions are during periods of economic disruption, but that's a path people are very unwilling to even discuss so it's not worth bringing up. Point being, people dramatically over estimate the certainty that an increase in EVs will someone also mean a decrease in overall oil consumption. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States#/media/File:US_PEV_Sales_2010_by_PHEV_vs_BEV.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_t... 1. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WRPUPUS2&f=W https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W... 2. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitution?country=~OWID_WRL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitutio...
jjtheblunt 5y ago
They've been figured out, years already. Drove pure electric starting in late 2014, BMW i3, and can confirm it's awesome, I never once got stuck, the cost of "fuel" is such that the equivalent MPG (eMPG i think they call it) was around 130 eMPG. Point is, you can recharge on 110 volt plugs like at home just fine, and you spend at least 5x less on fuel per distance, when gas is cheap, and around 10x less when it's not. Maintenance costs on the powertrain are essentially 0. Battery resilience is the only concern i had: how do they degrade over time?
- ethanbond 5y ago
  I don't think the delivery question is about how to get electricity to a few early adopters. It's about how the grid takes on the increased load of millions of electric cars.
  - shiftpgdn 5y ago
    Every single family home in Texas has at least one A/C unit pulling 10-60 amps of power from May - August and the grid is mostly just fine due to the availability of peaker plants. I think grid problems for people charging at home is overstated.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
      Texas famously has its own electrical grid (for better or worse) that is built with this concept at least somewhat in mind. But MN and WI and IL do not have a grid built to charge (maybe) 60 million automobiles. CA even more so. Even in Texas, the issue of getting sufficient amperage to residents of the state's larger cities is non-trivial, not necessarily because of supply but because of physical access.
    - newaccount2021 5y ago
  - jjtheblunt 5y ago
    Right, but recharging on 110v plugs is adequate for daily travel if not cross country, so if the grid can handle roughly one lightbulb per house left on overnight, it can charge cars. The calculation that's unclear is if every car is a big battery tesla and if its entire range is drained every single day. That's just irrelevant, but what fear-mongering focuses on.
floatrock 5y ago
"the chicken can't exist before the egg" Come on, all of these are things that grow WITH the EV industry as the EV industry develops. Given how much Toyota has helped the hydrogen industry develop hydrogen infrastructure over the last decade as they put all their eggs into the hydrogen bucket, they very much know all this.
- _aavaa_ 5y ago
  > all of these are things that grow WITH the EV industry as the EV industry develops. Doesn't mean that they will grow at the same rate. The concern is that EV goals are too aggressive given the pace that these other things can grow at > Given how much Toyota has helped the hydrogen industry develop hydrogen infrastructure over the last decade as they put all their eggs into the hydrogen bucket, they very much know all this. Then perhaps we should take their concerns more seriously when they raise them about the rollout of electric cars.
  - floatrock 5y ago
    Then lets hear some actual concerns. All this is just a disingenuous "the industry can't develop because the supporting infrastructure isn't there", while if you look at their actions, they've been building the supporting infrastructure along with the developing industry. It looks like disingenuous FUD because it seems like the market is saying they've bet on the wrong kind of infrastructure.
tcfhgj 5y ago
Nope. electrifying all the cars in germany would cause merely a 15-20% increase in electricity demand. Then factor in that there is a shift ongoing away from cars to bikes and publjc transport... No, production isnt an issue...
- _aavaa_ 5y ago
  15-20% seems low. Do you have a source for this? And I have feeling that people in north america drive far more km/day than those in Germany/Europe.
  - tcfhgj 5y ago
    https://edison.media/erklaeren/so-viel-strom-braeuchte-ein-vollstaendig-elektrischer-strassenverkehr/23204256.html https://edison.media/erklaeren/so-viel-strom-braeuchte-ein-v...

cowmix 5y ago

Just a note, it takes A LOT of energy (and electricity!) to refine oil into gasoline. In CA for instance, the power it takes to refine fuel could, almost, be used watt for watt to power EVs going the same distance. You can also add in the energy costs to extract, transport, store, etc fuel too (but EVs have a lot of that overhead too).

mywittyname 5y ago
Do you have a citation for this? Not that I don't believe you (it's actually a very plausible statement), but I have so many questions on the technical details here.
PheonixPharts 5y ago
You seem to be implying that increased EV usage will dramatically decrease the need for oil refinement. Do you have any evidence of this? In just the US, EV purchases have grown nearly exponentially over the past decade [0]. However total petroleum consumption in the US has slowly but steadily risen [1] during the same period (excluding, of course, the pandemic). Gasoline consumption has remained roughly flat. There's a common and understandable assumption that "more green technology usage means lower GHG emissions" but in reality there is little evidence to support this. Globally, green energy usage has only served to supplement energy demands. Since the industrial revolution we, as a species, have never reduced our usage of an energy source [3] Surprisingly we still burn as much wood as we did when every home was heated by wood burning. The only dips we ever see in GHG emissions are during periods of economic disruption, but that's a path people are very unwilling to even discuss so it's not worth bringing up. Point being, people dramatically over estimate the certainty that an increase in EVs will someone also mean a decrease in overall oil consumption. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States#/media/File:US_PEV_Sales_2010_by_PHEV_vs_BEV.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_t... 1. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WRPUPUS2&f=W https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W... 2. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitution?country=~OWID_WRL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitutio...

jjtheblunt 5y ago

They've been figured out, years already. Drove pure electric starting in late 2014, BMW i3, and can confirm it's awesome, I never once got stuck, the cost of "fuel" is such that the equivalent MPG (eMPG i think they call it) was around 130 eMPG. Point is, you can recharge on 110 volt plugs like at home just fine, and you spend at least 5x less on fuel per distance, when gas is cheap, and around 10x less when it's not. Maintenance costs on the powertrain are essentially 0. Battery resilience is the only concern i had: how do they degrade over time?

ethanbond 5y ago
I don't think the delivery question is about how to get electricity to a few early adopters. It's about how the grid takes on the increased load of millions of electric cars.
- shiftpgdn 5y ago
  Every single family home in Texas has at least one A/C unit pulling 10-60 amps of power from May - August and the grid is mostly just fine due to the availability of peaker plants. I think grid problems for people charging at home is overstated.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
    Texas famously has its own electrical grid (for better or worse) that is built with this concept at least somewhat in mind. But MN and WI and IL do not have a grid built to charge (maybe) 60 million automobiles. CA even more so. Even in Texas, the issue of getting sufficient amperage to residents of the state's larger cities is non-trivial, not necessarily because of supply but because of physical access.
  - newaccount2021 5y ago
- jjtheblunt 5y ago
  Right, but recharging on 110v plugs is adequate for daily travel if not cross country, so if the grid can handle roughly one lightbulb per house left on overnight, it can charge cars. The calculation that's unclear is if every car is a big battery tesla and if its entire range is drained every single day. That's just irrelevant, but what fear-mongering focuses on.

floatrock 5y ago

"the chicken can't exist before the egg" Come on, all of these are things that grow WITH the EV industry as the EV industry develops. Given how much Toyota has helped the hydrogen industry develop hydrogen infrastructure over the last decade as they put all their eggs into the hydrogen bucket, they very much know all this.

_aavaa_ 5y ago
> all of these are things that grow WITH the EV industry as the EV industry develops. Doesn't mean that they will grow at the same rate. The concern is that EV goals are too aggressive given the pace that these other things can grow at > Given how much Toyota has helped the hydrogen industry develop hydrogen infrastructure over the last decade as they put all their eggs into the hydrogen bucket, they very much know all this. Then perhaps we should take their concerns more seriously when they raise them about the rollout of electric cars.
- floatrock 5y ago
  Then lets hear some actual concerns. All this is just a disingenuous "the industry can't develop because the supporting infrastructure isn't there", while if you look at their actions, they've been building the supporting infrastructure along with the developing industry. It looks like disingenuous FUD because it seems like the market is saying they've bet on the wrong kind of infrastructure.

tcfhgj 5y ago

Nope. electrifying all the cars in germany would cause merely a 15-20% increase in electricity demand. Then factor in that there is a shift ongoing away from cars to bikes and publjc transport... No, production isnt an issue...

_aavaa_ 5y ago
15-20% seems low. Do you have a source for this? And I have feeling that people in north america drive far more km/day than those in Germany/Europe.
- tcfhgj 5y ago
  https://edison.media/erklaeren/so-viel-strom-braeuchte-ein-vollstaendig-elektrischer-strassenverkehr/23204256.html https://edison.media/erklaeren/so-viel-strom-braeuchte-ein-v...