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People seem to think that if Twitter dies, Mastodon will rise up or that we will return to forums or something. If Twitter dies a bunch of replacements will ris

People seem to think that if Twitter dies, Mastodon will rise up or that we will return to forums or something. If Twitter dies a bunch of replacements will rise up until one of them is ordained as the winner and everyone moves to that new platform. We've seen this happen over and over and over with various platforms.

riffic 4y ago
not only that but dominant platforms have always evolved, going from mass media consisting of newspapers, to radio, to newsreels, to broadcast television, and then to primitive dialup services like AOL and Prodigy. I would expect this will continue to evolve, from Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, etc, to standards-compliant interoperable services. The audience, or in other words the public, always catch up and move to the next dominant platform. This is one reason why I think arguments about network effects are one to be taken with a grain of salt. The public will go wherever the content is. Twitter's audience is not going to remain as valuable as it previously was (ahem, mismanagement may be one reason for this).
dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago
No, but it is a chance for something better to replace it.
- QuikAccount 4y ago
  What would make a replacement better in your eyes? Anything that reaches critical mass in the public will have the same sort of censoring and filtering.
- themitigating 4y ago
  Why wouldn't the same situation occur?
leobg 4y ago
I wonder if Elon plans to build a replacement himself in case his bid doesn’t go through. He alluded to a “plan B” in the recent TED interview (https://youtu.be/cdZZpaB2kDM https://youtu.be/cdZZpaB2kDM).
next_xibalba 4y ago
Those already exist and absolutely dwarf Twitter: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snap, etc. Twitter’s format is fundamentally archaic.
- QuikAccount 4y ago
  Completely disagree. Tiktok, Instagram, and Snap are fundamentally different platforms.
  - next_xibalba 4y ago
    tl;dr - They are different platforms, but they are still direct competitors, and Twitter is getting crushed. I imagine the total addressable market (roughly) to be: - humans with an internet connection - Total their clock time - Subtract all the time they are otherwise necessarily occupied (sleeping, working, etc. etc.) The remainder is the time over which all media companies are vying. Twitter is competing against Netflix, Tiktok, physical books, etc. Some of these things can be done concurrently (watching Netflix while surfing the internet, listening to radio while driving), so add that time back or double it, whatever. But, basically, this is the state of play. To say that Twitter is not competing against Tiktok, Snap, IG, etc. is to obscure the true state of play and competitive landscape. In 99.9% of cases†, you cannot scroll Tiktok and Twitter concurrently. So one or the other (or neither) is displaying ads to you. One or the other is generating revenue from those impressions. It is not really users over which they are competing. Rather, it is the ad inventory. The ad inventory is a function of time on site/app. Of course, ad inventory is definitely also a function of users–hence the focus on active users (xAUs). On that front, Twitter is a small fry[1]: - Facebook (Meta): 2.9 Billion MAUs - Instagram (Meta): 1.5 Billion MAUs - TikTok: 1 Billion MAUs - Snap: 557 Million MAUs - Twitter: 436 Million MAUs So, Twitter would have to generate a heckuva lot of engagement per user to generate anywhere near the inventory of other social media platforms. But we know they don't, as evidenced by their revenues and ARPU [2]. † I'm swagging here, but you get the point [1] https://blog.hootsuite.com/snapchat-statistics-for-business/ https://blog.hootsuite.com/snapchat-statistics-for-business/ [2] https://stockdividendscreener.com/information-technology/comparison-of-average-revenue-per-user-for-social-media-companies/ https://stockdividendscreener.com/information-technology/com...
honkdaddy 4y ago
Apart from the two biggest I can think of, MySpace -> Facebook and Digg -> Reddit, when else has this happened? I can think of many more examples where the hegemon imploded and its market was eaten up by a bunch of different competitors, I don't know if there's normally a clear winner which serves the same market as the original.
- ProfessorLayton 4y ago
  Vine > Tiktok Vine was shut down by twitter.
  - honkdaddy 4y ago
    Oh that's a great example, actually.
- jedberg 4y ago
  > Digg -> Reddit For the record, Reddit had more traffic than Digg for many years before V4, it's just that Digg had more Windows users running the Alexa toolbar, so it was ranked higher. We (reddit) visited Digg a little while before their V4 disaster and discovered (to the surprise of both teams) that our traffic was double theirs. Turned out most Digg users were also reddit users, but not the other way around.
  - earthscienceman 4y ago
    What? This is revisionist as all get out, and it's not like a founder of reddit should be anecdotally referenced as a source for "reddit was always more popular than digg. they just had toolbar spyware" This comment is laughably ego driven. The "v4 disaster" was the nail in the coffin where everyone left digg for good. Leaving digg for reddit became a meme in late 2008. It's no shock at all that by the v4 exodus in 2010 reddit was more popular. However 2007-2008 there were questions about which was a more compelling platform/format and which would foster a real community. By 2010 that question was answered, for sure, but "reddit always had more traffic but digg ranked higher cause toolbars" is borderline absurd.
Melting_Harps 4y ago
> People seem to think that if Twitter dies, My guess is both Elon and Jack will start to promote Bluesky with BTC at it's core for registration and ID purposes and prevent spam bots while offering a better alternative, I called the mining collaboration between Tesla and Block/CASH last year during the price drop when Elon pulled BTC payment at Tesla; this makes sense they've both been on the receiving end of hostile take overs of their own companies and are heavily invested in BTC and have a strong view on how social media platforms have been going--Jack way more than Elon, Tesla and SpaceX but still a large holdings and stand to gain a lot from it. I've never done social media, assuming HN doesn't count, and to be honest I'd consider playing with something like Bluesky if they move forward with it as I anticipate it will: if nothing else to see how the mechanics work.
lcnmrn 4y ago
Or someone will actually build a nice platform for once, like, I don't know, maybe Subreply.
BeFlatXIII 4y ago
…and how many people will quite Twitter-style social media entirely during the transition? That alone may be of great societal benefit.

riffic 4y ago

not only that but dominant platforms have always evolved, going from mass media consisting of newspapers, to radio, to newsreels, to broadcast television, and then to primitive dialup services like AOL and Prodigy. I would expect this will continue to evolve, from Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, etc, to standards-compliant interoperable services. The audience, or in other words the public, always catch up and move to the next dominant platform. This is one reason why I think arguments about network effects are one to be taken with a grain of salt. The public will go wherever the content is. Twitter's audience is not going to remain as valuable as it previously was (ahem, mismanagement may be one reason for this).

dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago

No, but it is a chance for something better to replace it.

QuikAccount 4y ago
What would make a replacement better in your eyes? Anything that reaches critical mass in the public will have the same sort of censoring and filtering.
themitigating 4y ago
Why wouldn't the same situation occur?

leobg 4y ago

I wonder if Elon plans to build a replacement himself in case his bid doesn’t go through. He alluded to a “plan B” in the recent TED interview (https://youtu.be/cdZZpaB2kDM https://youtu.be/cdZZpaB2kDM).

next_xibalba 4y ago

Those already exist and absolutely dwarf Twitter: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snap, etc. Twitter’s format is fundamentally archaic.

QuikAccount 4y ago
Completely disagree. Tiktok, Instagram, and Snap are fundamentally different platforms.
- next_xibalba 4y ago
  tl;dr - They are different platforms, but they are still direct competitors, and Twitter is getting crushed. I imagine the total addressable market (roughly) to be: - humans with an internet connection - Total their clock time - Subtract all the time they are otherwise necessarily occupied (sleeping, working, etc. etc.) The remainder is the time over which all media companies are vying. Twitter is competing against Netflix, Tiktok, physical books, etc. Some of these things can be done concurrently (watching Netflix while surfing the internet, listening to radio while driving), so add that time back or double it, whatever. But, basically, this is the state of play. To say that Twitter is not competing against Tiktok, Snap, IG, etc. is to obscure the true state of play and competitive landscape. In 99.9% of cases†, you cannot scroll Tiktok and Twitter concurrently. So one or the other (or neither) is displaying ads to you. One or the other is generating revenue from those impressions. It is not really users over which they are competing. Rather, it is the ad inventory. The ad inventory is a function of time on site/app. Of course, ad inventory is definitely also a function of users–hence the focus on active users (xAUs). On that front, Twitter is a small fry[1]: - Facebook (Meta): 2.9 Billion MAUs - Instagram (Meta): 1.5 Billion MAUs - TikTok: 1 Billion MAUs - Snap: 557 Million MAUs - Twitter: 436 Million MAUs So, Twitter would have to generate a heckuva lot of engagement per user to generate anywhere near the inventory of other social media platforms. But we know they don't, as evidenced by their revenues and ARPU [2]. † I'm swagging here, but you get the point [1] https://blog.hootsuite.com/snapchat-statistics-for-business/ https://blog.hootsuite.com/snapchat-statistics-for-business/ [2] https://stockdividendscreener.com/information-technology/comparison-of-average-revenue-per-user-for-social-media-companies/ https://stockdividendscreener.com/information-technology/com...

honkdaddy 4y ago

Apart from the two biggest I can think of, MySpace -> Facebook and Digg -> Reddit, when else has this happened? I can think of many more examples where the hegemon imploded and its market was eaten up by a bunch of different competitors, I don't know if there's normally a clear winner which serves the same market as the original.

ProfessorLayton 4y ago
Vine > Tiktok Vine was shut down by twitter.
- honkdaddy 4y ago
  Oh that's a great example, actually.
jedberg 4y ago
> Digg -> Reddit For the record, Reddit had more traffic than Digg for many years before V4, it's just that Digg had more Windows users running the Alexa toolbar, so it was ranked higher. We (reddit) visited Digg a little while before their V4 disaster and discovered (to the surprise of both teams) that our traffic was double theirs. Turned out most Digg users were also reddit users, but not the other way around.
- earthscienceman 4y ago
  What? This is revisionist as all get out, and it's not like a founder of reddit should be anecdotally referenced as a source for "reddit was always more popular than digg. they just had toolbar spyware" This comment is laughably ego driven. The "v4 disaster" was the nail in the coffin where everyone left digg for good. Leaving digg for reddit became a meme in late 2008. It's no shock at all that by the v4 exodus in 2010 reddit was more popular. However 2007-2008 there were questions about which was a more compelling platform/format and which would foster a real community. By 2010 that question was answered, for sure, but "reddit always had more traffic but digg ranked higher cause toolbars" is borderline absurd.

Melting_Harps 4y ago

> People seem to think that if Twitter dies, My guess is both Elon and Jack will start to promote Bluesky with BTC at it's core for registration and ID purposes and prevent spam bots while offering a better alternative, I called the mining collaboration between Tesla and Block/CASH last year during the price drop when Elon pulled BTC payment at Tesla; this makes sense they've both been on the receiving end of hostile take overs of their own companies and are heavily invested in BTC and have a strong view on how social media platforms have been going--Jack way more than Elon, Tesla and SpaceX but still a large holdings and stand to gain a lot from it. I've never done social media, assuming HN doesn't count, and to be honest I'd consider playing with something like Bluesky if they move forward with it as I anticipate it will: if nothing else to see how the mechanics work.

lcnmrn 4y ago

Or someone will actually build a nice platform for once, like, I don't know, maybe Subreply.

BeFlatXIII 4y ago

…and how many people will quite Twitter-style social media entirely during the transition? That alone may be of great societal benefit.