3 ms·

Where are you coming up with this stuff? Well-to-wheel, covering every single CO2 molecule involved in producing, transporting, burning and consuming ANY fossi

Where are you coming up with this stuff? Well-to-wheel, covering every single CO2 molecule involved in producing, transporting, burning and consuming ANY fossil fuel used for electricity production, electric cars are still more efficient and produce less emissions per mile. You could turn over the entire fleet of cars on US roads to electric today, and charging them would not pose a problem for the grid. Batteries do not reach end of life in 5-8 years. Every EV battery on the US market comes with a minimum of an 8 year 100K mile warranty, and they do not get disposed of the day the warranty ends. They have 10-20 years of usable life in a car, then another 10+ years as stationary storage with reduced capacity. When an EV gets totaled out, the batteries never ever go to a landfill, even 10+ year old ones, as they have so much usable life in them they're still worth thousands of dollars. For one point of reference, a 10 year old Nissan LEAF EV battery -- which were tiny compared to the batteries that come in new EVs today -- will still have more usable capacity in it than a brand new $11,000 Tesla Powerwall for whole-home battery backup and solar storage.

rootusrootus 5y ago
> For one point of reference, a 10 year old Nissan LEAF EV battery -- which were tiny compared to the batteries that come in new EVs today -- will still have more usable capacity in it than a brand new $11,000 Tesla Powerwall for whole-home battery backup and solar storage. Before the pandemic sent used cars prices to the moon, there were people buying used Bolts (and probably Leafs, I imagine) to park them permanently just to use the battery capacity for their off-grid home. Apparently it was cost effective, and the Bolt wiring is pretty straightforward to work with.
kkfx 5y ago
> Where are you coming up with this stuff? From the Real Life World®©™ instead of the advertised world. Did you ever have a lithium battery of any kind for more than 10 years? Try to look for real EV patterns: there is not much easy to access but actually daily used EV with a bit of mileage can't be used anymore, at the performance level the owner need after 5 years. Less used EV cease to be usable in around 8 years. After that sure, if you buy a Tesla just for weekly casual trip and have ICEs for daily use things change, you Tesla can potentially last even 15 years. Also sorry but NO statistic, at least not one public, cover the pollution of lithium mining since that happen in exotic and poor places. Almost no one these days want to publish against the Green New Deal, it's seen like a classic patriotic act by many, unfortunately if you are intellectually honest and really an environmentalist you should know that from advertisement and reality there is a big difference. 100k miles came quickly for anyone who use a car for real, in 4-5 years actually BTW, and while ICEs cars have formally equal guarantees in mileage terms, they can last issueless for around 200k miles, and with not marginal entertainment till 400k. EU commercial vans, bus, trucks are used normally for 2 million km and some last other two in third world countries. So please be intellectually honest. Even carmakers publicly declare that with actual chemistry it's impossible going electric on scale except marginal markets like the (in)famous "glorified golf cart" and few luxury car. If today all USA cars switch to BEV the USA electricity grid will collapse in few hours and can't recover even with continuous rolling blackouts for years, even here (France) with all NPP operational it will be impossible to recharge the actual ICE magically transformed to EV. That not counting the homes switching to heat pumps. Just to gives you a realistic dimension this month I've used form grid 151.2kWh and from solar 209.18kWh, in January 460kWh from grid, just 171 from solar, that's in a modern home super-insulated with heat pump heating/cooling/cooking etc. If I count consumed diesel in kWh (around 1000kWh/month), well, I need to triple my small plant. And of course I need two car per head to be used alternatively to recharge them. Now try the same basic calculation for someone who live in an apartment and do not WFH nor that near home. Just to dimension mere energy needs, not counting costs (in natural and economical terms, producing capacity in natural terms etc).
- dangrossman 5y ago
  > From the Real Life World®©™ instead of the advertised world. That's the world I live in, but you are describing a world that's totally unlike it. Is "Real Life World" a fictional world you've invented and trademarked with a nonsensical name in order to confuse readers? > Did you ever have a lithium battery of any kind for more than 10 years? Yes, I have a 2012 Nissan LEAF which has a 24 kWh lithium battery pack. It is still working perfectly now after 10 years. I also have a 2018 Nissan LEAF, a 2019 Kia Niro plug-in hybrid, and a 2021 Volkswagen ID.4. Suffice it to say, I have some experience with owning and charging electric cars in the real world. > 100k miles came quickly for anyone who use a car for real, in 4-5 years actually BTW The average car in your country reaches 100K miles when it's 14 years old, and in the US when it's over 8 years old. > Just to gives you a realistic dimension... if I count consumed diesel in kWh (around 1000kWh/month) You lead with "realistic", then gave a figure equal to driving about 4000 miles in an electric car every month. This is not realistic. Last month my electric cars consumed less than 150 kWh, or the equivalent of plugging in a small single room space heater for 3 hours per day. This fuel cost me about $20. > If today all USA cars switch to BEV the USA electricity grid will collapse in few hours and can't recover even with continuous rolling blackouts for years Converting 80% of all passenger vehicles to electric would only add about 10% to total electric consumption. Studies have been done, the grid would be fine.
  - kkfx 5y ago
    > That's the world I live in From what I know, having experimented and seen that's can hardly been. Perhaps you use cars very little so they last longer and traveling just for short trips makes them usable for you even when they can just run 50 miles. But while that's a perfectly legit use case it's far from the mean use cases for all humans... > Yes, I have a 2012 Nissan LEAF which has a 24 kWh lithium battery pack. It is still working perfectly now after 10 years. After how many miles/km if I can ask? > The average car in your country reaches 100K miles when it's 14 years old, and in the US when it's over 8 years old. The average is meaningless, people living in major cities are a huge percentage of the population and use cars far less since in dense EU cities cars are a needed nightmare because just traveling 20km (~12 miles) demand 30'+ in good days and sometimes, few time per month, can demand hours. While people living outside those major cities travel much, much more. Where I live most travel around 50-60km/day (31-37 miles) around ~10+% travel 100-120km/day (62-75 miles) on average. I have few neighbors who bought Tesla, I see how much their batteries wire out, surely not linearly, but at a rate with their usage, that will make them useless in 8 years, they might last [1] 10+ years but with too little range to be useful. Not only, resale value is essentially zero here. No one want second-hand EVs, no one trust them. Use them to extract the battery to complement a domestic p.v. plant it theoretically possible but impractical since those batteries are not made in easy-to-extract modules, of course their are small cylinders inside, but practically recycle them is costly and complex enough that on scale the price of a new battery will not be much different than of an already dead one, counting it's residual life and fire risk. > You lead with "realistic", then gave a figure equal to driving about 4000 miles in an electric car every month. Diesel is rated 10.7 kWh/l (40.5 kWh/us gallons) I use around 60 liters/month (15.85 gal/month). You might counter that electric motors are more efficient BUT in practice they are just a little bit more because: - I produce energy from p.v. so hopefully recharging out of my micro-plant means from DC (panels) to AC (solar inverter, ~89% efficiency) to DC again (car inverter-charger, probably around 60% efficient) means a big loss of energy; - battery itself is around 90% efficient - motors inverter from battery also loose power Giving a scientific estimate is not easy, you also need to take climate into account, cars HVAC usage, ... but I think estimate a real total efficiency around 15% plus than an equivalent ICE car is realistic enough. > Last month my electric cars consumed less than 150 kWh I do not own and EV but I driven some, my mileage declared by their on-board systems was 150-210Wh/km driving normally, witch means ~270-378kWh/month. Assuming a similar consumption for you that means ~33km/day (~20.5 miles/day) witch is very, very little for anyone living outside a city. > Converting 80% of all passenger vehicles to electric would only add about 10% to total electric consumption. Studies have been done, the grid would be fine. Seen how much blackouts happen also in developed countries from Texas to Tokyo region just to cite some famous... I doubt that electricity grid can even satisfy actual demands. Since few years, France the most nuclearized country in the world have done very small rolling blackouts to remain at 50Hz. Swiss another big producer of electricity have had issues as Norway due to reduced hydro production. Just in the last years, with not much EV nor extreme weathers. If you imaging a "country wide smart grid" with cars connected to quickly step in if needed... That's a dream. Having a p.v. with lithium storage I see how quick a modern inverter is and the answer is not enough. If you add signaling and relevant vulnerabilities on scale instead of stabilize the big smart grid you crate continuous blackouts. Car's inverter will ripple anytime the load go down, fail to sustain frequency quick enough every time the load ramp up. Consider a thing: EV actually can recharge super-slowly a 3kW/monophase or slowly at 7kW/monophase or 22kW/triphase (mandatory here for new houses and apartments parking since 2020 or so), actual grid consider around 6kW mean power per household, most apartments are 9kW maximum, most homes 12kW single-phase or if they have electrical heating, SPA, ... maximum 36kW. In some countries like Italy most households have just 3.3kW. And our grids are already in a tough situation now. Consider that most will charge their car in the evening, no signaling infra exists to tells cars inverter when start to balance the charge in the night, no way to tell cars "when I need the battery full". P.v. start to be popular but so far most parking lot do not have p.v. and even those who have it can't recharge out of it more than few cars. Again no infra is in place and can't be done quickly. Lithium earth resources are essentially unknown, but current estimates are not much optimistic and we still do not know how to recycle batteries. With the actual chemistry 80% of private vehicles can be EVs around 2050 if we push WFH much, something that start to happen just a little bit, with many resistances and schizophrenic behaviors. That's what I call reality vs advertisement... [1] if internal flash storage do not wire out before, https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-older-teslas-due-to-excessive-data-logging-report https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-... or an OTA upgrade block them https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/2/17413732/tesla-over-the-air-software-updates-brakes https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/2/17413732/tesla-over-the-ai... or some other costly issue happen, costly enough to make convenient giving up

rootusrootus 5y ago

> For one point of reference, a 10 year old Nissan LEAF EV battery -- which were tiny compared to the batteries that come in new EVs today -- will still have more usable capacity in it than a brand new $11,000 Tesla Powerwall for whole-home battery backup and solar storage. Before the pandemic sent used cars prices to the moon, there were people buying used Bolts (and probably Leafs, I imagine) to park them permanently just to use the battery capacity for their off-grid home. Apparently it was cost effective, and the Bolt wiring is pretty straightforward to work with.

kkfx 5y ago

> Where are you coming up with this stuff? From the Real Life World®©™ instead of the advertised world. Did you ever have a lithium battery of any kind for more than 10 years? Try to look for real EV patterns: there is not much easy to access but actually daily used EV with a bit of mileage can't be used anymore, at the performance level the owner need after 5 years. Less used EV cease to be usable in around 8 years. After that sure, if you buy a Tesla just for weekly casual trip and have ICEs for daily use things change, you Tesla can potentially last even 15 years. Also sorry but NO statistic, at least not one public, cover the pollution of lithium mining since that happen in exotic and poor places. Almost no one these days want to publish against the Green New Deal, it's seen like a classic patriotic act by many, unfortunately if you are intellectually honest and really an environmentalist you should know that from advertisement and reality there is a big difference. 100k miles came quickly for anyone who use a car for real, in 4-5 years actually BTW, and while ICEs cars have formally equal guarantees in mileage terms, they can last issueless for around 200k miles, and with not marginal entertainment till 400k. EU commercial vans, bus, trucks are used normally for 2 million km and some last other two in third world countries. So please be intellectually honest. Even carmakers publicly declare that with actual chemistry it's impossible going electric on scale except marginal markets like the (in)famous "glorified golf cart" and few luxury car. If today all USA cars switch to BEV the USA electricity grid will collapse in few hours and can't recover even with continuous rolling blackouts for years, even here (France) with all NPP operational it will be impossible to recharge the actual ICE magically transformed to EV. That not counting the homes switching to heat pumps. Just to gives you a realistic dimension this month I've used form grid 151.2kWh and from solar 209.18kWh, in January 460kWh from grid, just 171 from solar, that's in a modern home super-insulated with heat pump heating/cooling/cooking etc. If I count consumed diesel in kWh (around 1000kWh/month), well, I need to triple my small plant. And of course I need two car per head to be used alternatively to recharge them. Now try the same basic calculation for someone who live in an apartment and do not WFH nor that near home. Just to dimension mere energy needs, not counting costs (in natural and economical terms, producing capacity in natural terms etc).

dangrossman 5y ago
> From the Real Life World®©™ instead of the advertised world. That's the world I live in, but you are describing a world that's totally unlike it. Is "Real Life World" a fictional world you've invented and trademarked with a nonsensical name in order to confuse readers? > Did you ever have a lithium battery of any kind for more than 10 years? Yes, I have a 2012 Nissan LEAF which has a 24 kWh lithium battery pack. It is still working perfectly now after 10 years. I also have a 2018 Nissan LEAF, a 2019 Kia Niro plug-in hybrid, and a 2021 Volkswagen ID.4. Suffice it to say, I have some experience with owning and charging electric cars in the real world. > 100k miles came quickly for anyone who use a car for real, in 4-5 years actually BTW The average car in your country reaches 100K miles when it's 14 years old, and in the US when it's over 8 years old. > Just to gives you a realistic dimension... if I count consumed diesel in kWh (around 1000kWh/month) You lead with "realistic", then gave a figure equal to driving about 4000 miles in an electric car every month. This is not realistic. Last month my electric cars consumed less than 150 kWh, or the equivalent of plugging in a small single room space heater for 3 hours per day. This fuel cost me about $20. > If today all USA cars switch to BEV the USA electricity grid will collapse in few hours and can't recover even with continuous rolling blackouts for years Converting 80% of all passenger vehicles to electric would only add about 10% to total electric consumption. Studies have been done, the grid would be fine.
- kkfx 5y ago
  > That's the world I live in From what I know, having experimented and seen that's can hardly been. Perhaps you use cars very little so they last longer and traveling just for short trips makes them usable for you even when they can just run 50 miles. But while that's a perfectly legit use case it's far from the mean use cases for all humans... > Yes, I have a 2012 Nissan LEAF which has a 24 kWh lithium battery pack. It is still working perfectly now after 10 years. After how many miles/km if I can ask? > The average car in your country reaches 100K miles when it's 14 years old, and in the US when it's over 8 years old. The average is meaningless, people living in major cities are a huge percentage of the population and use cars far less since in dense EU cities cars are a needed nightmare because just traveling 20km (~12 miles) demand 30'+ in good days and sometimes, few time per month, can demand hours. While people living outside those major cities travel much, much more. Where I live most travel around 50-60km/day (31-37 miles) around ~10+% travel 100-120km/day (62-75 miles) on average. I have few neighbors who bought Tesla, I see how much their batteries wire out, surely not linearly, but at a rate with their usage, that will make them useless in 8 years, they might last [1] 10+ years but with too little range to be useful. Not only, resale value is essentially zero here. No one want second-hand EVs, no one trust them. Use them to extract the battery to complement a domestic p.v. plant it theoretically possible but impractical since those batteries are not made in easy-to-extract modules, of course their are small cylinders inside, but practically recycle them is costly and complex enough that on scale the price of a new battery will not be much different than of an already dead one, counting it's residual life and fire risk. > You lead with "realistic", then gave a figure equal to driving about 4000 miles in an electric car every month. Diesel is rated 10.7 kWh/l (40.5 kWh/us gallons) I use around 60 liters/month (15.85 gal/month). You might counter that electric motors are more efficient BUT in practice they are just a little bit more because: - I produce energy from p.v. so hopefully recharging out of my micro-plant means from DC (panels) to AC (solar inverter, ~89% efficiency) to DC again (car inverter-charger, probably around 60% efficient) means a big loss of energy; - battery itself is around 90% efficient - motors inverter from battery also loose power Giving a scientific estimate is not easy, you also need to take climate into account, cars HVAC usage, ... but I think estimate a real total efficiency around 15% plus than an equivalent ICE car is realistic enough. > Last month my electric cars consumed less than 150 kWh I do not own and EV but I driven some, my mileage declared by their on-board systems was 150-210Wh/km driving normally, witch means ~270-378kWh/month. Assuming a similar consumption for you that means ~33km/day (~20.5 miles/day) witch is very, very little for anyone living outside a city. > Converting 80% of all passenger vehicles to electric would only add about 10% to total electric consumption. Studies have been done, the grid would be fine. Seen how much blackouts happen also in developed countries from Texas to Tokyo region just to cite some famous... I doubt that electricity grid can even satisfy actual demands. Since few years, France the most nuclearized country in the world have done very small rolling blackouts to remain at 50Hz. Swiss another big producer of electricity have had issues as Norway due to reduced hydro production. Just in the last years, with not much EV nor extreme weathers. If you imaging a "country wide smart grid" with cars connected to quickly step in if needed... That's a dream. Having a p.v. with lithium storage I see how quick a modern inverter is and the answer is not enough. If you add signaling and relevant vulnerabilities on scale instead of stabilize the big smart grid you crate continuous blackouts. Car's inverter will ripple anytime the load go down, fail to sustain frequency quick enough every time the load ramp up. Consider a thing: EV actually can recharge super-slowly a 3kW/monophase or slowly at 7kW/monophase or 22kW/triphase (mandatory here for new houses and apartments parking since 2020 or so), actual grid consider around 6kW mean power per household, most apartments are 9kW maximum, most homes 12kW single-phase or if they have electrical heating, SPA, ... maximum 36kW. In some countries like Italy most households have just 3.3kW. And our grids are already in a tough situation now. Consider that most will charge their car in the evening, no signaling infra exists to tells cars inverter when start to balance the charge in the night, no way to tell cars "when I need the battery full". P.v. start to be popular but so far most parking lot do not have p.v. and even those who have it can't recharge out of it more than few cars. Again no infra is in place and can't be done quickly. Lithium earth resources are essentially unknown, but current estimates are not much optimistic and we still do not know how to recycle batteries. With the actual chemistry 80% of private vehicles can be EVs around 2050 if we push WFH much, something that start to happen just a little bit, with many resistances and schizophrenic behaviors. That's what I call reality vs advertisement... [1] if internal flash storage do not wire out before, https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-older-teslas-due-to-excessive-data-logging-report https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-... or an OTA upgrade block them https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/2/17413732/tesla-over-the-air-software-updates-brakes https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/2/17413732/tesla-over-the-ai... or some other costly issue happen, costly enough to make convenient giving up