3 ms·

> But most people don't actually drive that far more than a few times a year; if at all. Absolutely true, but, until we move to a "usage" rather than "possessi

> But most people don't actually drive that far more than a few times a year; if at all. Absolutely true, but, until we move to a "usage" rather than "possession" model for cars, this will be the biggest obstacle to massive adoption of EV as the primary car. At this point people get that they probably only run 100km a day at most, and that an EV would perfectly suit their daily commute (small EVs would be the perfect yellow jacket thing.) However, everybody has family to visit on the other side of the country twice a year. The moment you cross the psychological threshold of 1000km on a single charge (or, roughly a full day of highway), the whole game changes. Would it be better if people commuted by train and ebike, visited their family by trains and had small easy to rent EVs for the days they need a car ? Sure. Will it happen before 70 years of cultural impact of personal car change ? Hard to tell.

matthewdgreen 5y ago
> However, everybody has family to visit on the other side of the country twice a year. Relatively few people drive across the entire country twice per year. Many Americans do drive several hours to visit their family. It takes basically one trip using a current long range EV (e.g., ~310 miles range) and modern HVDC charging to rid yourself of these concerns. A 9h (~500 mile) trip only requires about an hour of HVDC charging. You'll need to stop for 30 minutes anyway unless you're on some kind of cannonball run.
- phtrivier 5y ago
  Fair enough, I should have said "across country/state" (speaking from France.)
- robocat 5y ago
  > You'll need to stop for 30 minutes anyway Except that on the holidays, there will not be enough chargers, so the “30 minute stop” is an ideal that simply cannot be reached under peak holiday conditions. Booking a charger could make things predictable, but it can’t solve the problem of not enough chargers available during peak periods.
  - matthewdgreen 5y ago
    Have you experienced this? I haven't.
    - phtrivier 5y ago
      Chicken and egg problem: there aren't enough people with EVs yet for it to become a problem. What scares me is the physical limitation of the highway stop area. The _gas_ stations there are already way past capacity on a few strategic days of the year. French people don't like waiting 20m to get gas on August 15th, but at least once they're done, filling up is 5m. I don't think any TV is going to resist filming infuriated would-be-holliday-goers burning under the sun while they wait an hour or two to fill their batteries. The first summer it arrives will be _very_ hard for the EV industry. Also, those "highway areas" are owned by... gas companies. So will they put their best will into making sure the EV-holliday experience is top-notch (maybe ramping up charging capacity with portable batteries during the summer ?) Or will they let the experience be hellish, look at the number of EV stagnating, and lobby like hell to move the ICE bans further to the future ?
    - robocat 5y ago
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfUJCWRFjig https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfUJCWRFjig
jillesvangurp 5y ago
So people insist. The reality is that people buy the car they can afford rather than the super car they really want. So, whether they will like it or not, most of them will switch over in the next ten years with adequate range. That's why there are so many 40kwh EVs on the road already. They are more than good enough and they get the job done. In the end, spending 50K extra on a car you don't need with some ridiculously oversized battery for a journey you only do a few times per decade is completely irrational. The rational thing would be to split the difference and rent a super car, fly first class, or just man the F*** up and stop to charge for 50 minutes a couple of times the few times per year you have no other choice. The good news is, it will be technically possible for people to continue to buy cars they absolutely don't need for money they can't afford. Not going to be a problem. It's not really a problem now, really. Manufacturers will be more than happy to take your money.
- phtrivier 5y ago
  > The reality is that people buy the car they can afford rather than the super car they really want. > ... pending 50K extra on a car you don't need with some ridiculously oversized battery for a journey you only do a few times per decade is completely irrational You seem to assume people are thinking about cars _rationnaly_. I don't know about other countries, but at least in France, this is _not_ the case. About 30 to 50% of the TV ad space is devoted to cars. The surge of SUVs in the last decade is caused by people buying _entirely irrational_ cars (way too big, way too heavy, with - sorry HN - way too much electronics.) This is also the perfectly predictable result of marketing incentives (car dealers sell what they're told to sell.) EU has some regulations that _might_ make it unaffordable for car companies to keep the same incentives in the long run - but I don't expect them to play nice. People will keep buying what their friends, car dealers, auto magazine, music videos, movies, and, mostly, TV ads tell them to buy. We've been post-homo-economicus in this market for decades. Now, the "second-hand" market is much more rational - but EVs are not there yet.

matthewdgreen 5y ago

> However, everybody has family to visit on the other side of the country twice a year. Relatively few people drive across the entire country twice per year. Many Americans do drive several hours to visit their family. It takes basically one trip using a current long range EV (e.g., ~310 miles range) and modern HVDC charging to rid yourself of these concerns. A 9h (~500 mile) trip only requires about an hour of HVDC charging. You'll need to stop for 30 minutes anyway unless you're on some kind of cannonball run.

phtrivier 5y ago
Fair enough, I should have said "across country/state" (speaking from France.)
robocat 5y ago
> You'll need to stop for 30 minutes anyway Except that on the holidays, there will not be enough chargers, so the “30 minute stop” is an ideal that simply cannot be reached under peak holiday conditions. Booking a charger could make things predictable, but it can’t solve the problem of not enough chargers available during peak periods.
- matthewdgreen 5y ago
  Have you experienced this? I haven't.
  - phtrivier 5y ago
    Chicken and egg problem: there aren't enough people with EVs yet for it to become a problem. What scares me is the physical limitation of the highway stop area. The _gas_ stations there are already way past capacity on a few strategic days of the year. French people don't like waiting 20m to get gas on August 15th, but at least once they're done, filling up is 5m. I don't think any TV is going to resist filming infuriated would-be-holliday-goers burning under the sun while they wait an hour or two to fill their batteries. The first summer it arrives will be _very_ hard for the EV industry. Also, those "highway areas" are owned by... gas companies. So will they put their best will into making sure the EV-holliday experience is top-notch (maybe ramping up charging capacity with portable batteries during the summer ?) Or will they let the experience be hellish, look at the number of EV stagnating, and lobby like hell to move the ICE bans further to the future ?
  - robocat 5y ago
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfUJCWRFjig https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfUJCWRFjig

jillesvangurp 5y ago

So people insist. The reality is that people buy the car they can afford rather than the super car they really want. So, whether they will like it or not, most of them will switch over in the next ten years with adequate range. That's why there are so many 40kwh EVs on the road already. They are more than good enough and they get the job done. In the end, spending 50K extra on a car you don't need with some ridiculously oversized battery for a journey you only do a few times per decade is completely irrational. The rational thing would be to split the difference and rent a super car, fly first class, or just man the F*** up and stop to charge for 50 minutes a couple of times the few times per year you have no other choice. The good news is, it will be technically possible for people to continue to buy cars they absolutely don't need for money they can't afford. Not going to be a problem. It's not really a problem now, really. Manufacturers will be more than happy to take your money.

phtrivier 5y ago
> The reality is that people buy the car they can afford rather than the super car they really want. > ... pending 50K extra on a car you don't need with some ridiculously oversized battery for a journey you only do a few times per decade is completely irrational You seem to assume people are thinking about cars _rationnaly_. I don't know about other countries, but at least in France, this is _not_ the case. About 30 to 50% of the TV ad space is devoted to cars. The surge of SUVs in the last decade is caused by people buying _entirely irrational_ cars (way too big, way too heavy, with - sorry HN - way too much electronics.) This is also the perfectly predictable result of marketing incentives (car dealers sell what they're told to sell.) EU has some regulations that _might_ make it unaffordable for car companies to keep the same incentives in the long run - but I don't expect them to play nice. People will keep buying what their friends, car dealers, auto magazine, music videos, movies, and, mostly, TV ads tell them to buy. We've been post-homo-economicus in this market for decades. Now, the "second-hand" market is much more rational - but EVs are not there yet.