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I have to wonder what economic chance new battery types have given the massive investment in current tech. It feels like we're betting on the wrong thing, and

• gameswithgo 5y ago
• perlgeek 5y ago
  > I have to wonder what economic chance new battery types have given the massive investment in current tech. Current tech tends to improve at a steady pace. Taking a new tech to production takes some years (somewhere in the 5 to 20 years range); processes need to refined and scaled, suppliers sourced, people trained, recycling must be addressed etc. So new tech only stands a real chance if you can convince investors that its advantage is big enough that it still dominates when it comes to market. Let's say current batteries improve 7% per year (number made up, but not totally unrealistic). If the new technology needs 10 years to get to market, the current technology improves by a factor of 1.07*10 = 1.97 in mean time. So a 2x advantage along any axis (density, charge cycles, price, availability of materials etc.) is not a solid bet for an investor. A 5x advantage likely is. If course you'd want advantages on multiple axes to really make a solid bet.
• AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  There's lots of segments for battery chemistries to be used, so they just need to beat out smaller segments to establish commercial viability. EV batteries also aren't a monoculture. They are even mixing battery types in EV packs to achieve different range/cost aspects. If there's room for Sodium Ion, LFP, and the various cobalt/nickel chemistries, if there's air, sea, and long-haul modes plus grid storage, home battery storage, plus all the mobile and tools, there's plenty of segments.