5 ms·

The science says, 2-3x is pretty much a done deal. There are a lot of challenges to productize and that will take time but there are so many independent compani

The science says, 2-3x is pretty much a done deal. There are a lot of challenges to productize and that will take time but there are so many independent companies and research groups coming up with different ways to dot this that I feel confident saying at least one of them is probably onto something. I think the real deal is another doubling in energy density to somewhere between 5x and 10x. E.g. solid state batteries might enable that eventually. It's probably a bit further out. 10-20 years at least. But more than probable. The impact of this for EVs would not necessarily be cars with bigger ranges but much lighter/cheaper cars with similar ranges as current high end models with faster charging times that only need a third of the battery weight. Anything beyond a few hundred miles of range is basically irrational and overkill. Normal people have a bladder range of about 200-300 miles at best (I get uncomfortable way before that) and ought to stop for longer than five minutes when they relief themselves eventually. Perfect opportunity to top up a battery. But most people don't actually drive that far more than a few times a year; if at all.

ridaj 5y ago
Human bladder range can already be extended 10x by the use of Gatorade bottle technology.
mrfusion 5y ago
The problem is a 300 mile range isn’t a true 300 miles. There’s losses for temperature, running the heater, battery reserve, etc. I see 300 possibly being sufficient but I’d want the advertised range to be 400 to make sure I reliably get that.
phtrivier 5y ago
> But most people don't actually drive that far more than a few times a year; if at all. Absolutely true, but, until we move to a "usage" rather than "possession" model for cars, this will be the biggest obstacle to massive adoption of EV as the primary car. At this point people get that they probably only run 100km a day at most, and that an EV would perfectly suit their daily commute (small EVs would be the perfect yellow jacket thing.) However, everybody has family to visit on the other side of the country twice a year. The moment you cross the psychological threshold of 1000km on a single charge (or, roughly a full day of highway), the whole game changes. Would it be better if people commuted by train and ebike, visited their family by trains and had small easy to rent EVs for the days they need a car ? Sure. Will it happen before 70 years of cultural impact of personal car change ? Hard to tell.
- matthewdgreen 5y ago
  > However, everybody has family to visit on the other side of the country twice a year. Relatively few people drive across the entire country twice per year. Many Americans do drive several hours to visit their family. It takes basically one trip using a current long range EV (e.g., ~310 miles range) and modern HVDC charging to rid yourself of these concerns. A 9h (~500 mile) trip only requires about an hour of HVDC charging. You'll need to stop for 30 minutes anyway unless you're on some kind of cannonball run.
  - phtrivier 5y ago
    Fair enough, I should have said "across country/state" (speaking from France.)
  - robocat 5y ago
    > You'll need to stop for 30 minutes anyway Except that on the holidays, there will not be enough chargers, so the “30 minute stop” is an ideal that simply cannot be reached under peak holiday conditions. Booking a charger could make things predictable, but it can’t solve the problem of not enough chargers available during peak periods.
    - matthewdgreen 5y ago
      Have you experienced this? I haven't.
      - phtrivier 5y ago
        Chicken and egg problem: there aren't enough people with EVs yet for it to become a problem. What scares me is the physical limitation of the highway stop area. The _gas_ stations there are already way past capacity on a few strategic days of the year. French people don't like waiting 20m to get gas on August 15th, but at least once they're done, filling up is 5m. I don't think any TV is going to resist filming infuriated would-be-holliday-goers burning under the sun while they wait an hour or two to fill their batteries. The first summer it arrives will be _very_ hard for the EV industry. Also, those "highway areas" are owned by... gas companies. So will they put their best will into making sure the EV-holliday experience is top-notch (maybe ramping up charging capacity with portable batteries during the summer ?) Or will they let the experience be hellish, look at the number of EV stagnating, and lobby like hell to move the ICE bans further to the future ?
14 5y ago
It isn't irrational though for people who live in apartments for rentals for example and can not ad charging capabilities. They don't want to charge all the time and if you can get a battery that lasts 1000 miles that would be huge. Also Canadians and others in cold climate are finding range really limited because of the need to run heaters so a battery with much greater range and the ability to run a heater and still have moderately good range in the winter months would absolutely make sense.

ridaj 5y ago

Human bladder range can already be extended 10x by the use of Gatorade bottle technology.

mrfusion 5y ago

The problem is a 300 mile range isn’t a true 300 miles. There’s losses for temperature, running the heater, battery reserve, etc. I see 300 possibly being sufficient but I’d want the advertised range to be 400 to make sure I reliably get that.

phtrivier 5y ago

> But most people don't actually drive that far more than a few times a year; if at all. Absolutely true, but, until we move to a "usage" rather than "possession" model for cars, this will be the biggest obstacle to massive adoption of EV as the primary car. At this point people get that they probably only run 100km a day at most, and that an EV would perfectly suit their daily commute (small EVs would be the perfect yellow jacket thing.) However, everybody has family to visit on the other side of the country twice a year. The moment you cross the psychological threshold of 1000km on a single charge (or, roughly a full day of highway), the whole game changes. Would it be better if people commuted by train and ebike, visited their family by trains and had small easy to rent EVs for the days they need a car ? Sure. Will it happen before 70 years of cultural impact of personal car change ? Hard to tell.

matthewdgreen 5y ago
> However, everybody has family to visit on the other side of the country twice a year. Relatively few people drive across the entire country twice per year. Many Americans do drive several hours to visit their family. It takes basically one trip using a current long range EV (e.g., ~310 miles range) and modern HVDC charging to rid yourself of these concerns. A 9h (~500 mile) trip only requires about an hour of HVDC charging. You'll need to stop for 30 minutes anyway unless you're on some kind of cannonball run.
- phtrivier 5y ago
  Fair enough, I should have said "across country/state" (speaking from France.)
- robocat 5y ago
  > You'll need to stop for 30 minutes anyway Except that on the holidays, there will not be enough chargers, so the “30 minute stop” is an ideal that simply cannot be reached under peak holiday conditions. Booking a charger could make things predictable, but it can’t solve the problem of not enough chargers available during peak periods.
  - matthewdgreen 5y ago
    Have you experienced this? I haven't.
    - phtrivier 5y ago
      Chicken and egg problem: there aren't enough people with EVs yet for it to become a problem. What scares me is the physical limitation of the highway stop area. The _gas_ stations there are already way past capacity on a few strategic days of the year. French people don't like waiting 20m to get gas on August 15th, but at least once they're done, filling up is 5m. I don't think any TV is going to resist filming infuriated would-be-holliday-goers burning under the sun while they wait an hour or two to fill their batteries. The first summer it arrives will be _very_ hard for the EV industry. Also, those "highway areas" are owned by... gas companies. So will they put their best will into making sure the EV-holliday experience is top-notch (maybe ramping up charging capacity with portable batteries during the summer ?) Or will they let the experience be hellish, look at the number of EV stagnating, and lobby like hell to move the ICE bans further to the future ?

14 5y ago

It isn't irrational though for people who live in apartments for rentals for example and can not ad charging capabilities. They don't want to charge all the time and if you can get a battery that lasts 1000 miles that would be huge. Also Canadians and others in cold climate are finding range really limited because of the need to run heaters so a battery with much greater range and the ability to run a heater and still have moderately good range in the winter months would absolutely make sense.