4 ms·
Sure, here are a couple of resources, both for Russia and the U.S. For the U.S. plan to attack Russia, the NRDC did an interesting hypothetical attack around 2
by chakalakasp 4y ago
Sure, here are a couple of resources, both for Russia and the U.S.
For the U.S. plan to attack Russia, the NRDC did an interesting hypothetical attack around 20 years ago to show the impact a U.S. attack would have on Russia. (It's hypothetical because the actual attack plans are classified to the point that even Senators on the big committees don't get to see them when they angrily ask for them.) The report on that hypothetical is here: https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/us-nuclear-war-plan-report.pdf https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/us-nuclear-war-plan...
For the Russian plan to attack the U.S., this reddit thread is a guy who did this for a living answering questions:
https://www.reddit.com/r/war/comments/trkfe7/three_hypothetical_scenarios_for_a_russian/ https://www.reddit.com/r/war/comments/trkfe7/three_hypotheti...
The submitter, https://www.reddit.com/user/dmteter/ https://www.reddit.com/user/dmteter/, has deep knowledge of the issue, and answers a lot of questions. He's kinda a hothead, though, if asked questions the wrong way. I chalk it up to the kind of stress that might come from realizing that the plans you helped to develop to kill hundreds of millions of people might actually get put to use in the foreseeable future.
He also answers some questions in this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/nuclearwar/comments/tpa3ao/openrisop_093_counterforcecountervalue_scenario/ https://www.reddit.com/r/nuclearwar/comments/tpa3ao/openriso...
The nuclear winter stuff is more interesting. Most recent papers are very much thinking it's a very big deal:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD030509 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201...
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3155983 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3155983
http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ChinaNWrice8inpress.pdf http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ChinaNWrice8inpress.pd...
https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/OzdoganNuclearWinterMidwestPrint.pdf https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/OzdoganNuclearWinterM...
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000205 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF00...
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1919049117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1919049117
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086246 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL08...
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027331 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD02...
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030777 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD03...
One paper that feels the nuclear winter risk is overstated is from LLNL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JD033056 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020...
This paper talks a bit about the uncertainties regarding nuclear winter right now. Mainly lack of data for modelling: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/25751654.2021.1882772 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/25751654.2021.1...
A lot of the questions revolve around whether nuclear detonations would create firestorms in contemporary U.S. cities, and if they did, if those fire storms would be strong enough to generate pyrocumulonimbus clouds that drew the soot into the stratosphere on a widespread scale. If firestorms do start, based on PNW fire studies, it seems that pyrocumulonimbus clouds would be a very common thing: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax1748 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax1748
- NoImmatureAdHom 4y agoI really appreciate this!