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The author is wrong. The people who are experts at doing this kind of thing for a living very much believe that a general nuclear war will destroy nearly all i

The author is wrong. The people who are experts at doing this kind of thing for a living very much believe that a general nuclear war will destroy nearly all infrastructure. Don't just believe random bloggers with no expertise in the things they're bullshitting about. Even in the open source world, there is an entire body of expert information on this topic that contradicts what this guy is saying.

NoImmatureAdHom 4y ago
Can you point to some people / papers / where these people hang out? I'd like to do some reading
- chakalakasp 4y ago
  Sure, here are a couple of resources, both for Russia and the U.S. For the U.S. plan to attack Russia, the NRDC did an interesting hypothetical attack around 20 years ago to show the impact a U.S. attack would have on Russia. (It's hypothetical because the actual attack plans are classified to the point that even Senators on the big committees don't get to see them when they angrily ask for them.) The report on that hypothetical is here: https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/us-nuclear-war-plan-report.pdf https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/us-nuclear-war-plan... For the Russian plan to attack the U.S., this reddit thread is a guy who did this for a living answering questions: https://www.reddit.com/r/war/comments/trkfe7/three_hypothetical_scenarios_for_a_russian/ https://www.reddit.com/r/war/comments/trkfe7/three_hypotheti... The submitter, https://www.reddit.com/user/dmteter/ https://www.reddit.com/user/dmteter/, has deep knowledge of the issue, and answers a lot of questions. He's kinda a hothead, though, if asked questions the wrong way. I chalk it up to the kind of stress that might come from realizing that the plans you helped to develop to kill hundreds of millions of people might actually get put to use in the foreseeable future. He also answers some questions in this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/nuclearwar/comments/tpa3ao/openrisop_093_counterforcecountervalue_scenario/ https://www.reddit.com/r/nuclearwar/comments/tpa3ao/openriso... The nuclear winter stuff is more interesting. Most recent papers are very much thinking it's a very big deal: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD030509 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3155983 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3155983 http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ChinaNWrice8inpress.pdf http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ChinaNWrice8inpress.pd... https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/OzdoganNuclearWinterMidwestPrint.pdf https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/OzdoganNuclearWinterM... https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000205 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF00... https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478 https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1919049117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1919049117 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086246 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL08... https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027331 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD02... https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030777 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD03... One paper that feels the nuclear winter risk is overstated is from LLNL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JD033056 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020... This paper talks a bit about the uncertainties regarding nuclear winter right now. Mainly lack of data for modelling: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/25751654.2021.1882772 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/25751654.2021.1... A lot of the questions revolve around whether nuclear detonations would create firestorms in contemporary U.S. cities, and if they did, if those fire storms would be strong enough to generate pyrocumulonimbus clouds that drew the soot into the stratosphere on a widespread scale. If firestorms do start, based on PNW fire studies, it seems that pyrocumulonimbus clouds would be a very common thing: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax1748 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax1748
  - NoImmatureAdHom 4y ago
    I really appreciate this!

NoImmatureAdHom 4y ago

Can you point to some people / papers / where these people hang out? I'd like to do some reading

chakalakasp 4y ago
Sure, here are a couple of resources, both for Russia and the U.S. For the U.S. plan to attack Russia, the NRDC did an interesting hypothetical attack around 20 years ago to show the impact a U.S. attack would have on Russia. (It's hypothetical because the actual attack plans are classified to the point that even Senators on the big committees don't get to see them when they angrily ask for them.) The report on that hypothetical is here: https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/us-nuclear-war-plan-report.pdf https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/us-nuclear-war-plan... For the Russian plan to attack the U.S., this reddit thread is a guy who did this for a living answering questions: https://www.reddit.com/r/war/comments/trkfe7/three_hypothetical_scenarios_for_a_russian/ https://www.reddit.com/r/war/comments/trkfe7/three_hypotheti... The submitter, https://www.reddit.com/user/dmteter/ https://www.reddit.com/user/dmteter/, has deep knowledge of the issue, and answers a lot of questions. He's kinda a hothead, though, if asked questions the wrong way. I chalk it up to the kind of stress that might come from realizing that the plans you helped to develop to kill hundreds of millions of people might actually get put to use in the foreseeable future. He also answers some questions in this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/nuclearwar/comments/tpa3ao/openrisop_093_counterforcecountervalue_scenario/ https://www.reddit.com/r/nuclearwar/comments/tpa3ao/openriso... The nuclear winter stuff is more interesting. Most recent papers are very much thinking it's a very big deal: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD030509 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3155983 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3155983 http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ChinaNWrice8inpress.pdf http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ChinaNWrice8inpress.pd... https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/OzdoganNuclearWinterMidwestPrint.pdf https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/OzdoganNuclearWinterM... https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000205 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF00... https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478 https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1919049117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1919049117 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086246 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL08... https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027331 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD02... https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030777 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD03... One paper that feels the nuclear winter risk is overstated is from LLNL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JD033056 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020... This paper talks a bit about the uncertainties regarding nuclear winter right now. Mainly lack of data for modelling: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/25751654.2021.1882772 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/25751654.2021.1... A lot of the questions revolve around whether nuclear detonations would create firestorms in contemporary U.S. cities, and if they did, if those fire storms would be strong enough to generate pyrocumulonimbus clouds that drew the soot into the stratosphere on a widespread scale. If firestorms do start, based on PNW fire studies, it seems that pyrocumulonimbus clouds would be a very common thing: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax1748 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax1748
- NoImmatureAdHom 4y ago
  I really appreciate this!