The biggest problem I see with this rather sunny perspective is that it assumes all those "reserve" warheads are permanently out of action. In fact, we have to

The biggest problem I see with this rather sunny perspective is that it assumes all those "reserve" warheads are permanently out of action. In fact, we have to expect that they'll start getting pulled into service as soon as the first nukes fly. That is, after all, the point of a reserve is it not? So no, it's not going to stop at 3000 warheads.