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I used to think conspiracy theorists were just nuts until the Snowden NSA leaks. I still think most conspiracies are total bunk (obviously), but I admit finding

I used to think conspiracy theorists were just nuts until the Snowden NSA leaks. I still think most conspiracies are total bunk (obviously), but I admit finding out the kind (and scope) of surveillance that the NSA was engaged in had made me a little more willing to believe some things.

cpfohl 5y ago
Conspiracies and conspiracy theories are different. People actually conspire to do all sorts of things, all over the world. Conspiracy theories are different, though because they start with a “what if” and move to belief instead of starting from evidence and moving to belief. At least, this is the way I define the terms.
- craig1f 5y ago
  I think you have the right definition here. People aren't rational. They are rationalizers. Rational thinking is when you use facts and draw a conclusion. Rationalizing is when you have a conclusion, and you work backwards to justify it with rational-sounding arguments. Conspiracy theories start with some ridiculous conclusion, and work backwards to make it sound intelligent. It's not intelligent, but it SOUNDS intelligent.
  - HeyLaughingBoy 5y ago
    > People aren't rational. They are rationalizers In college we had to read Freud's Civilization and its Discontents for a literature class. The only thing I remember about that entire book was him saying that no matter what, if people wanted to do something, they would find a way to rationalize it to themselves to avoid cognitive dissonance. That one concept has been illustrated over and over in the 30 years since!
- alexdowad 5y ago
  I think two important points which distinguish many implausible conspiracy theories from real conspiracies are 1) disregard for what humans are actually capable of doing and 2) not having any reasonable motive to attribute to the purported conspirators. Any theory which alleges that some group of people secretly controls the world falls under #1. Trying to keep just 50 or 100 people organized and getting them to all do what you want is incredibly hard, let alone the entire world. An example of #2: Here in Zambia, when the government started offering free COVID-19 vaccines, various conspiracy theories spread on social media: some said that anyone who accepted the vaccine would turn into a chimpanzee, others said that their bodies would become magnetic and attract iron objects, while others said that vaccinated persons would become sterile and be unable to produce children. I don't think any advocate of these theories ever explained why the government would want to turn their citizens into chimpanzees, though.
  - alexvoda 5y ago
    I believe both points have their origin in an underdeveloped "theory of mind". Understanding the capabilities and motives of others depends on haaving developed a theory of mind. Going by Keagans developmental stages, people are getting stuck in stage 3.
ronald_raygun 5y ago
I mean, there are a lot of things that fall under the "conspiracy theory" umbrella that just straight up happened. For example, the CIA experimenting on people with LSD trying for mind control (MKUltra), the FBI assassinating prominent figures on the left like Fred Hampton, Snowden, etc. And a host of pretty reasonable ones - like the fact that there were probably multiplier shooters in the JFK assassination (the Caro bio of LBJ does a pretty good job explaining how/why the warren report needed to be rushed and needed to be simple so that the US wouldn't go to war with cuba or the USSR), the FBI assassinating MLK.
disadvantage 5y ago
The world is obviously full of conspiracies. People have been conspiring on various topics for a long time. What bothers me is people can't separate the wheat from the chaff and you get 'Biden is a robot' instead of actual conspiracies like Monsanto & Big Sugar, Big Pharma, Military Industrial Complex etc
jeffbee 5y ago
The Snowden leaks are almost totally information-free and conspiracy theorists simply project their prior beliefs onto them. As an exercise, take any widely-repeated conclusion drawn from the leaks and then go back to Snowden's materials and try to build a supporting case for that conclusion.

cpfohl 5y ago

Conspiracies and conspiracy theories are different. People actually conspire to do all sorts of things, all over the world. Conspiracy theories are different, though because they start with a “what if” and move to belief instead of starting from evidence and moving to belief. At least, this is the way I define the terms.

craig1f 5y ago
I think you have the right definition here. People aren't rational. They are rationalizers. Rational thinking is when you use facts and draw a conclusion. Rationalizing is when you have a conclusion, and you work backwards to justify it with rational-sounding arguments. Conspiracy theories start with some ridiculous conclusion, and work backwards to make it sound intelligent. It's not intelligent, but it SOUNDS intelligent.
- HeyLaughingBoy 5y ago
  > People aren't rational. They are rationalizers In college we had to read Freud's Civilization and its Discontents for a literature class. The only thing I remember about that entire book was him saying that no matter what, if people wanted to do something, they would find a way to rationalize it to themselves to avoid cognitive dissonance. That one concept has been illustrated over and over in the 30 years since!
alexdowad 5y ago
I think two important points which distinguish many implausible conspiracy theories from real conspiracies are 1) disregard for what humans are actually capable of doing and 2) not having any reasonable motive to attribute to the purported conspirators. Any theory which alleges that some group of people secretly controls the world falls under #1. Trying to keep just 50 or 100 people organized and getting them to all do what you want is incredibly hard, let alone the entire world. An example of #2: Here in Zambia, when the government started offering free COVID-19 vaccines, various conspiracy theories spread on social media: some said that anyone who accepted the vaccine would turn into a chimpanzee, others said that their bodies would become magnetic and attract iron objects, while others said that vaccinated persons would become sterile and be unable to produce children. I don't think any advocate of these theories ever explained why the government would want to turn their citizens into chimpanzees, though.
- alexvoda 5y ago
  I believe both points have their origin in an underdeveloped "theory of mind". Understanding the capabilities and motives of others depends on haaving developed a theory of mind. Going by Keagans developmental stages, people are getting stuck in stage 3.

ronald_raygun 5y ago

I mean, there are a lot of things that fall under the "conspiracy theory" umbrella that just straight up happened. For example, the CIA experimenting on people with LSD trying for mind control (MKUltra), the FBI assassinating prominent figures on the left like Fred Hampton, Snowden, etc. And a host of pretty reasonable ones - like the fact that there were probably multiplier shooters in the JFK assassination (the Caro bio of LBJ does a pretty good job explaining how/why the warren report needed to be rushed and needed to be simple so that the US wouldn't go to war with cuba or the USSR), the FBI assassinating MLK.

disadvantage 5y ago

The world is obviously full of conspiracies. People have been conspiring on various topics for a long time. What bothers me is people can't separate the wheat from the chaff and you get 'Biden is a robot' instead of actual conspiracies like Monsanto & Big Sugar, Big Pharma, Military Industrial Complex etc

jeffbee 5y ago

The Snowden leaks are almost totally information-free and conspiracy theorists simply project their prior beliefs onto them. As an exercise, take any widely-repeated conclusion drawn from the leaks and then go back to Snowden's materials and try to build a supporting case for that conclusion.